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Research Note: Feb 5th BOE and ECB Rate Decisions
Brian Dolan, Chief Currency Strategist
Jacob Oubina, Currency Strategist
Summary Outlook: (Feb 4, 2009) We expect the Bank of England to cut UK base rates 50 bps to 1.00% when they announce tomorrow at 0700ET/1200GMT. We look for the ECB to keep rates on hold at 2.00% when they announce at 0745ET/1245GMT. Both views are in line with consensus forecasts. If the decisions materialize as expected, we would expect GBP to gain against the USD and the EUR, as markets express optimism that pro-active rate cuts, along with other fiscal/credit stimulus programs, will help contain the UK downturn. In contrast, if the ECB holds rates steady, as indicated repeatedly by ECB Pres. Trichet, we would look for the EUR to weaken against the USD and GBP as markets express pessimism that the ECB still doesn't 'get it' and that by delaying rate cuts, the Eurozone outlook will deteriorate further. The major risk to this outlook is that the outcomes are fully priced in (EUR/GBP is down nearly 200 points in the last 24 hours and down about 600 points since late January) and that short-covering dominates the post-decision price action to a greater extent than we anticipate.
Trading Strategy: We think the immediate market reaction will be for EUR/GBP shorts to take profit following the two rate announcements, leading EUR/GBP to move higher initially. However, we would look to use such a rebound to sell EUR/GBP in the 0.8980/0.9030 area for an eventual return to weakness. We would look to stop out on strength over 0.9120 and to take profit in the 0.8720/50 area.
In the USD pairs, the outlook is more complicated due to EUR/GBP cross flows, so we would confine ourselves to EUR/USD due to the exceptionally unpredictable range of GBP/USD outcomes. In EUR/USD we would look to use strength in the 1.2950/1.3000 area to establish short EUR/USD positions. We would look to stop out on strength over 1.3080 and to take profit in the 1.2700/50 area. We will remain flexible with our levels depending on what happen prior to the rate decisions, but overall we would look for EUR weakness to become more pronounced during Trichet's 0830ET/1330GMT press conference, as he stresses the downside risks to the economic outlook and signals another rate cut at the March 5 ECB meeting.
Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
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