Close Preview x  
Close x
Expert Advisor Hosting Request

Please provide the following information:
(All Fields Required)

X My Account Secure Account Login Login

Close x
Online Security

Secure login
Ensuring the security of your personal information is of paramount importance to us. When you sign in to the trading platform, your User ID and password are secure.

The moment you click Login, we encrypt your User ID and password using 128-bit Secure Sockets Layer (SSL) technology.

Browser security indicators
You may notice when you are on our website that some familiar indicators do not appear in your browser to confirm the entire page is secure. Those indicators include the small "lock" icon in the bottom right corner of the browser frame and the "s" in the Web address bar (for example, "https").

To provide the fastest access to the trading platforms, we have made signing in to trading platforms secure without making the entire page secure. Again, please be assured that your ID and password are secure.

Close x

We would like to contact you by telephone to help you make the most of your demo account, and inform you about our products and services. By submitting your telephone number you agree that can contact you by telephone.
Privacy policy
Euro still resilient despite looming French election risk

Updated  Apr 20, 2017 1:50:00 PM Written by James Chen, CMT

With just three days before the potentially pivotal first round of the heated French presidential election on Sunday, April 23rd, a resilient euro appears rather oblivious to the risks imposed by the two fiercely anti-EU candidates – Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon. This may be partly due to the narrowly higher poll-standings of centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron, who has portrayed himself as a strong supporter of French participation in the European Union and euro currency.

Macron is the only candidate of the four current front-runners to embrace the EU/euro without prominently calling for reforms. Far-right Le Pen is the strongest advocate for France leaving both the EU (Frexit) and euro. Far-left Melenchon would also support Frexit if sweeping EU reforms are not implemented. And while conservative Francois Fillon does not advocate an end to EU membership, he has promised reforms to both EU policies and the euro.

Despite Macron’s modest but sustained dominance in French polls, the race could realistically go to any one of the candidates. Recent polls of voters have shown an exceptionally tight race, with each of the four front-runners fluctuating not far from 20%. Most recent national poll averages have Emmanuel Macron around 23%, Marine Le Pen around 22%, and both Francois Fillon and Jean-Luc Melenchon fighting for third-place around 19%. Furthermore, there is still a sizable contingent of undecided voters, as well as many who could easily change their votes.

When such tight polling conditions so close to the election are combined with the fact that polls have been notoriously inaccurate in recent times (e.g., last year’s UK Brexit referendum and US presidential election), a clear case can be made that it remains anyone’s election to win.

After the first round of the election, the two leading contenders will move onto the second round, set for May 7th. This is provided, of course, that none of the candidates secures 50% of the first-round votes, which has never occurred in French elections. With such a close race among the four front-runners currently, this is even less likely to happen.

In the run-up to this weekend’s first round, the euro has recently exhibited resilience against both the stumbling US dollar and Japanese yen. A key currency pair to watch amid the election risks in the days and weeks ahead will be EUR/JPY. In the event of better results than expected from either Le Pen or Melenchon, EUR/JPY could be doubly pressured by both a drop in the threatened euro as well as a boost for the safe-haven yen as a result of heightened market risk perceptions. In the slightly more likely event that Macron, or to a lesser extent, Fillon, move significantly ahead, the euro is likely to experience a further relief rally while the yen could drop on decreased safe-haven demand. This could result in a pronounced boost for EUR/JPY as European markets potentially breathe a collective sigh of relief.

Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Services Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, and the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.


Test your trading strategies risk free btn_demo_blue_hover.gif OR btn_open_an_account_dark_grey_alt_hover.gif

Have more questions?

Chat Live Now or call 0800 032 1948