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Live Market Updates

NFP Prep: Data Points to Potential Blockbuster Jobs Report

Updated  Jul 1, 2015 1:55:00 PM Written by Matt Weller, CMT

The June Non-Farm Payroll report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 ET (12:30 GMT, 1:30pm BST), with expectations centered on a headline print of 231k after last month’s stellar 280k reading. My model suggests that the report could exceed these expectations,with leading indicators suggesting a June headline NFP reading of 263K. The model has been historically reliable, showing a correlation coefficient of 0.90 with the unrevised NFP headline figure dating back to 2001 (1.0 [...] Continue Reading ...

AUD/NZD: break of 1.13 hurdle points to further gains

Updated  Jul 1, 2015 12:40:00 PM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

The AUD/NZD has staged a massive rally since bottoming out at just above parity back in April. It has gained some 1350+ pips in the process. Most of the gains have been due to a weaker NZD rather than a stronger AUD. The NZD has fallen off a cliff after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand made a U-turn in its policy stance. Worried about the increases in house prices in Auckland in particular, the [...] Continue Reading ...

USDCHF Tags a Nearly 1-Month High on ADP, Greece

Updated  Jul 1, 2015 9:15:00 AM Written by Matt Weller, CMT

The constant barrage of Greek headlines continues unabated, with the latest batch of rumors suggesting variously that the “no” votes for this weekend’s referendum are gaining momentum, that the Greek government will cancel this weekend’s referendum, that a breakthrough deal between Greece and her creditors is imminent, and that the two sides are further apart than ever (see my colleague Kathleen Brooks’ note from earlier today for the latest analysis of the ever-changing situation [...] Continue Reading ...

EUR “carries” on as normal

Updated  Jul 1, 2015 9:10:00 AM Written by Kathleen Brooks

An eerie calm has descended on the markets. News that the Greek PM had made an about-turn and decided that maybe he could accept his creditors’ demands after all, has unleashed a European stock market rally, which has pushed the EUR lower. This rally could be given another boost if, as rumours suggest, Greece’s referendum on the bailout terms is scrapped. EUR weakness = stock market strength A rallying European stock market is [...] Continue Reading ...

S&P futures higher on renewed Greece hopes

Updated  Jul 1, 2015 7:50:00 AM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

Yesterday saw the S&P 500 post its first quarterly drop in nearly three years. As well as the crisis in Greece and the stock market turmoil in China, investors are growing worried about the impact of the strong dollar on company earnings and US exports, and as the Federal Reserve looks set to be the first major central bank to hike rates later this year. Although interest rates are likely to rise only gradually to [...] Continue Reading ...

AUDUSD: life in no man’s land

Updated  Jul 1, 2015 1:01:50 AM Written by Chris Tedder

The Australian dollar has been on the front foot lately as investors brush aside some risk-off sentiment from earlier in the week. It seems the market isn’t as concerned about the possibility of a Grexit as initially thought, at least not yet, and the expected negative impact on Australian economy of such an event would be fairly limited. It’s worth noting that the still high yielding Australian dollar is an attractive option for cash leaving [...] Continue Reading ...

The Nikkei 225 hit a speed bump

Updated  Jun 30, 2015 10:28:41 PM Written by Chris Tedder

Japanese stocks are recovering from their worst sell-off in six months as bargain hunters enter the market. The index suffered heavily on Monday as investor sentiment soured after it became clear that Greece was going to miss last night’s payment to the IMF. In fact, every major equity market in the world felt the repercussions of a possible Grexit, and there was a strong push to the safe-haven yen. While the yen has retained [...] Continue Reading ...

Gold: Safe Haven No More?

Updated  Jun 30, 2015 2:25:00 PM Written by Matt Weller, CMT

One of the big themes we’ve been exploring this week as the Greek debt negotiations deteriorate (see my colleague Kathleen Brooks’ latest analysis of the situation here) is the appeal of so-called “safe haven” assets. Most traditional safe haven assets are acting as expected, with money flowing into the Japanese yen, US dollar, US Treasury bonds, and the Swiss franc (though the SNB’s decision to intervene in its currency may redirect some [...] Continue Reading ...

USD/JPY at key technical juncture

Updated  Jun 30, 2015 11:15:00 AM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

The USD/JPY managed to bounce off the pivotal 122.00 mark this morning, though it still remains under pressure amid safe haven flows due, above all, to the on-going situation in Greece. Traders are also exercising some caution ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls and other key data on Thursday, which explains why price has failed to rally more profoundly. After all, today’s US data releases were not bad with the consumer confidence index, for [...] Continue Reading ...

AUDJPY: Traders YE(ar)N for a Safe Haven

Updated  Jun 30, 2015 9:10:00 AM Written by Matt Weller, CMT

Greece’s debt drama stretched further into its third act today, with optimists still holding out hope that a last-second bailout deal could be cobbled together. Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has already categorically confirmed that Greece won't make its payment today, but there were some hopeful signs from the Mediterranean nation. Despite harsh rhetoric over the weekend, Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker has apparently offered a last-minute solution to Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in exchange [...] Continue Reading ...

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