Updated May 21, 2013 3:55:00 PM
Written by Chris Tevere, CMT
Late last week the US 10-year yield found support into the 200-day sma around 1.86%, leading us to believe another push higher could be underway. Once more, it appeared the 1.97-99% level could come into play as this saw the previous high, 78.6% retracement (of the March-May decline) and the March gap lower. Interestingly enough today’s price action saw the 10-year yield trade up to 1.996% – Thus closing the March gap lower, but it [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 21, 2013 3:00:00 PM
Written by Eric Viloria, CMT
The Bank of Japan’s policy meeting will conclude tonight and we do not anticipate any significant changes to current policy as aggressive measures were taken early last month at Kuroda’s inaugural meeting. The BoJ is likely to hold for now as it assesses the impact of recent action as it filters through to markets and the economy. Therefore, the focus will be placed on the tone of the statement which has the potential to be [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 21, 2013 11:30:00 AM
Written by Kathleen Brooks
After rising to its highest level since 2008, the Nikkei traded sideways on Tuesday ahead oif the BOJ meeting tomorrow. The BOJ is not expected to alter policy after its enormous injection of stimulus at the April meeting. This makes BOJ Governor Kuroda’s comments after the meeting at 0730 BST/ 0230 ET, even more important. Traders will be trying to gauge from Kuroda 1, the BOJ’s view on how the economy 2, whether more stimulus [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 21, 2013 10:30:00 AM
Written by Kathleen Brooks
This cross has broken above short term resistance at 1.0300 this afternoon, the highest level since early March. There are no specific drivers for the move, and it seems like USDCAD is being driven by 1, a strengthening dollar and 2, overall weakness in the commodity bloc currencies. When the markets cross important resistance zones a couple of things can happen: 1, the trend continues, 2, the market gets cautious or 3, the trend reverses. [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 21, 2013 7:00:00 AM
Written by Kathleen Brooks
The pound has come under pressure after the weaker than expected inflation reading for April earlier this morning. Headline CPI fell to 2.4% (expectations were for a decline to 2.6%, from 2.8% in March). This is the lowest level since September 2012. But it was the sharp decline in core prices that was the most noteworthy part of the report. Core prices (which don’t include energy and food) fell to 2%, the lowest level since [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 21, 2013 4:00:00 AM
Written by Kathleen Brooks
UK inflation data for April is the economic highlight during the European session today. GBP traders shoudl watch this data as it could have important implications for the pound. Expectations: • UK inflation data is released at 0930 BST/ 0430 ET today. • CPI is expected to fall to 2.6% from 2.8% YoY for April • This would be the first decline in CPI since September 2012 • Some of the downward [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 21, 2013 12:37:11 AM
Written by Chris Tedder
The RBA released its minutes from this month’s monetary policy meeting, at which the bank elected to cut the official cash rate to a record low of 2.75%, citing subdued consumer prices and growth. The minutes are broadly in line with market expectations of a slightly dovish policy stance, thus the Australian dollar didn’t immediately react heavily to their release. Another cut in June is unlikely The RBA is broadly mildly bullish on economic [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 20, 2013 6:20:00 PM
Written by Chris Tevere, CMT
We have been bearish on both Gold and Silver for several months, therefore we decided to make it a major theme in our Q2 2013 outlook, believing they were poised to test (and even break below), their previous lows around $1520/35 & $26.00/25 respectively. As highlighted in our previous update, “the speed and pace of today’s break below the highlighted $1520 & $26 levels suggest this is likely more than just a mere shake [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 20, 2013 6:05:00 PM
Written by Chris Tevere, CMT
We have been bearish on both Gold and Silver for several months, therefore we decided to make it a major theme in our Q2 2013 outlook, believing they were poised to test (and even break below), their previous lows around $1520/35 & $26.00/25 respectively. As highlighted in our previous update, “the speed and pace of today’s break below the highlighted $1520 & $26 levels suggest this is likely more than just a mere shake [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 20, 2013 3:40:00 PM
Written by Eric Viloria, CMT
With markets focused on the outlook for monetary policy in the US, rhetoric from Fed officials has been closely scrutinized for any indications of the Fed’s next move. This morning, Dallas Fed President Fisher (non-voter and hawk) said that the odds favor the Fed maintaining or reducing asset purchases. He indicated that he would prefer a dialing back of purchases and said that he does not see “broad-based deflation” in the US. Though low inflation [...] Continue Reading ...
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