Updated Jun 14, 2013 2:00:00 PM
Written by Kathleen Brooks and Eric Viloria, CMT
Moves in the developed FX markets were wild last week and we saw a big spike in volatility. As you can see above, it was a rough week for the dollar falling against all of the major currencies. The biggest moves were against the JPY, AUD and NZD. As the dollar selloff gathered pace last week these currencies may have benefitted the most because they had come under the most selling pressure in recent months. [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated Jun 7, 2013 1:30:00 PM
Written by Eric Viloria, CMT
The JPY strengthened significantly this past week against the USD amid a sharp correction in longer-term yen weakness. USD/JPY accelerated to the downside after it broke below notable technical support which was the convergence of the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and bullish channel support. The CAD gained later in the week after an impressive Canadian employment report for May. Canada added 95K jobs which was more than six times the expected gain of +15K [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 31, 2013 3:00:00 PM
Written by Kathleen Brooks and Chris Tedder
The markets have been very choppy this week. Stock markets sold off after reaching record highs in the US, The Nikkei is down more than 10% in recent days and Treasury yields rose to their highest levels since early 2012. The markets are extremely jittery as they try to second guess the timing of the end of QE3 from the Fed. Source: FOREX.com, Bloomberg In the FX market the dollar was the big [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 24, 2013 2:00:00 PM
Written by Kathleen Brooks and Eric Viloria, CMT
It was a wild week for the FX market with some very violent moves and sharp reversals of short term trends. FX followed moves in the stock and bond markets, particularly in Asia, which highlighted how the FX market does not move in isolation. The dollar was the notable under performer last week, losing ground against 6 out of 10 of the majors. This is a sharp reversal of fortune from the week [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 17, 2013 2:00:00 PM
Written by Kathleen Brooks and Eric Viloria, CMT
Highlights
FX return analysis
Gold hurtling towards 2013 lows
Fundamental focus: UK and Europe
BOJ to stand pat
Clarity needed from the Fed
[...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 10, 2013 2:00:00 PM
Written by Kathleen Brooks and Eric Viloria, CMT
It was a wild ride for FX markets at the end of last week. The dollar surged, the yen slumped and some G10 crosses breached key technical levels. Volatility also picked up, 1-month implied volatility in JPY jumped from 11.98% on 2nd May, to 12.95% on 10th May. Other currencies that were notably more volatile last week versus the dollar include NZD and the AUD. The dollar has been by far the strongest performer [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 3, 2013 12:00:00 PM
Written by Kathleen Brooks and Chris Tevere, CMT
Last week was extremely data heavy, including an FOMC meeting, an ECB meeting and culminating with a payrolls report from the US on Friday. So it’s worth taking a look at where the G10 currencies stand versus the dollar. Below we take a look at monthly returns and year-to-date returns. Figure 1: Monthly returns: Figure 2: Year-to-date returns: • The past month has seen a notable decline in [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated Apr 26, 2013 2:30:00 PM
Written by Eric Viloria, CMT
Initial estimates of first quarter GDP figures released so far have caught markets by surprise and currencies have responded accordingly. In the past couple weeks, there have been a downside surprises to Chinese and US 1Q GDP while UK GDP surprised to the upside. A close examination of the reaction in FX to the surprises underscores the importance of economic growth on currencies. To be sure, this is just one of many factors influencing currency [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated Apr 19, 2013 2:00:00 PM
Written by Kathleen Brooks and Eric Viloria, CMT
This week is a crucial one for Europe and the UK. April PMI and German IFO data out of Europe will be scrutinized to see if the previously resilient core is also buckling under the weight of low consumer and economic confidence. We will also be watching to see if the UK made history with a triple-dip recession. The PMI data for the Eurozone is the first reading of April figures, and could set [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated Apr 12, 2013 2:20:00 PM
Written by Kathleen Brooks and Eric Viloria, CMT
The meeting of EU finance ministers at the end of last week was not meant to focus on Cyprus; in fact the Irish finance minister (and host of the meeting) said that the Cyprus issue was resolved. However, the tiny nation kept creeping up in headlines on Friday, suggesting that a lot of time was spent discussing the funding needs of the island nation. Firstly, the bailout has been extended to EUR 23 billion [...] Continue Reading ...
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