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EM Rundown: Dollar at risk against major EM currencies

Updated -  Oct 5, 2015 2:45:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

With a plethora of major central bank announcements out of the G10 this week, traders will be more focused on developed markets than their emerging market rivals, so we wanted to take a moment to reset the technical outlooks for the major EM pairs we follow: USD/RUB: All eyes on 64.00 The ruble has been a punching bag in this article (and many others) for months now, but there are finally some potential rays of [...] Continue Reading

Nikkei: From false breaks come fast moves in the opposite direction

Updated -  Oct 5, 2015 1:00:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

The global stock markets have rebounded strongly over the past few days following the recent turmoil. With China on holiday, concerns about the health of the world’s second largest economy have been put on the backburner for the time being, while the faltering recovery in the US and elsewhere have raised hopes the Federal Reserve will hold off raising interest rates from their record low levels for a few more months at the very least. [...] Continue Reading

EUR/USD: Something’s got to give…

Updated -  Oct 5, 2015 9:00:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

Even with the benefit of a weekend to digest it, market participants are still struggling to put a bullish spin on Friday’s NFP report. In fact, for many traders, the disappointing jobs report has pushed expectations for interest rate “liftoff” into 2016: according to the CME’s FedWatch tool, fed funds futures traders are only pricing in a 30% chance of a rate hike this year, and the odds don’t break above 50% until March of [...] Continue Reading

GBP loses its mojo as UK recovery slows

Updated -  Oct 5, 2015 8:00:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

The cost of holidays for Britons escaping the winter could become more expensive as a slowdown in domestic economic growth pushes out the Bank of England interest rate hike expectations further out, weighing on the pound. The latest data suggests activity in the key services sector slowed down to an almost 2 and a half year low at the end of third quarter, according to a closely-followed Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) compiled by Markit. [...] Continue Reading

S&P 500’s post-NFP reversal could be a bullish sign for the coming week

Updated -  Oct 2, 2015 3:00:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

Without fail, some popular financial personality will jokingly tweet “Week’s over” (or even “Month’s over”) after the release of the monthly Non-Farm Payroll report. Traders who took this common tongue-in-cheek joke too literally this month will be in for a rude awakening when they turn their attention back to the markets. By now, most readers know that this month’s jobs report was a big disappointment. Not only did the headline number of jobs miss expectations [...] Continue Reading

Gold down for sixth day as traders anticipate strong NFP data

Updated -  Oct 2, 2015 7:25:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

Gold is down for the sixth consecutive trading day and unless it stages an unexpectedly sharp rally later this afternoon, the metal is also going to snap a two-week winning streak. Just last Thursday it looked like the metal had finally woken up from its slumber when it momentarily traded above $1155 and a bearish trend line that has been in place since the start of this year. Then, both the dollar and equity markets [...] Continue Reading

NFP Prep: A 200k+ reading possible, but wages will reign supreme

Updated -  Oct 1, 2015 2:45:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

The September Non-Farm Payroll report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 ET (12:30 GMT, 1:30pm BST), with expectations centered on a headline print of 202k after last month’s muddy 173k reading. My model suggests that the report could slightly exceed these expectations,with leading indicators suggesting a Septemberheadline NFP reading of 219K. The model has been historically reliable, showing a correlation coefficient of 0.90 with the unrevised NFP headline figure dating back to 2001 (1.0 would [...] Continue Reading

Volatile day for crude and Canadian dollar

Updated -  Oct 1, 2015 1:00:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

Crude oil and crude-related assets like the Canadian dollar have had a volatile session. Oil prices were initially higher today and were on course to finish in the black for the third consecutive session. Sentiment in the oil market was improved on increased geopolitical risks arising from Russia’s military intervention in Syria and worries about supply outages in the US due to the developing Hurricane Joaquin. In addition, risk sentiment had improved across the board [...] Continue Reading

USD/CNH: Chinese economic data is about to get even less transparent…

Updated -  Oct 1, 2015 8:50:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

To put it politically, many analysts and traders take official Chinese economic data with a big grain of salt. The central government has long been suspected of “massaging” economic data to match up with the country’s aggressive growth goals, and as a result, skeptical traders tend to focus on third-party economic measures for a better read of the current conditions in the world’s second-largest economy. Unfortunately, that strategy is about to get a lot more [...] Continue Reading

DAX: double bottom reversal or bull trap?

Updated -  Oct 1, 2015 7:47:22 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

There are contradictory technical signals to be observed when looking at the daily chart of the DAX index, which means that both the bulls and the bears should proceed with an extra degree of caution. The bulls for example would point to the fact that the index has refused to hold below the previous low of 9320/5 area, which suggests that a double bottom reversal pattern may have been created. What’s more, the long-term bullish [...] Continue Reading

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) in Canada and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) in Hong Kong. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.


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