Updated Jun 19, 2013 4:00:00 PM
By Eric Viloria, CMT
EUR/USD dropped sharply on the back of a stronger USD after the FOMC announcement and Bernanke press conference reinforced expectations of an adjustment to the pace of asset purchases later this year. The break below channel support in prices and corresponding break of a horizontal support line in the 4-hour RSI indicator suggests the potential for continued downside in the near term. Some key levels to keep an eye on are (Fibonacci levels are retracements [...] Continue Reading
Updated Jun 19, 2013 2:55:00 PM
By Chris Tevere, CMT
Today’s FOMC statement produced no major changes to monetary policy: Two key proclamations within the statement: Interestingly, for the first time in years there was not one but two dissenters, as James Bullard stated the FOMC should “defend its inflation goal in light of recent low inflation readings” – dovish, while Esther George maintained her hawkish stance. June summary of economic projections for 2013 saw decreases to their growth, inflation & unemployment outlooks (from [...] Continue Reading
Updated Jun 19, 2013 11:00:00 AM
By Eric Viloria, CMT
USD/JPY has been consolidating lower ahead of today’s FOMC statement, summary of economic projections, and press conference by Chairman Bernanke. A more dovish Fed is likely to weigh on USD/JPY while a less dovish tone may see the pair move higher. It is currently testing the 95.00 big figure and we highlight some key levels to watch moving forward. Support zones: Resistance levels: [...] Continue Reading
Updated Jun 19, 2013 1:55:09 AM
By Chris Tedder
NZDUSD has remained in a fairly tight range for the last 24 hours or so, with the pair trapped by support and resistance levels. On the downside, the 200hr SMA is providing the first level of defence, currently around 0.7960, followed closely by the pair’s 50.0% retracement level from its high on the 15th, which is around 0.7945. On the other side of the equation, the 100hr SMA is providing resistance. Overall, the aforementioned levels [...] Continue Reading
Updated Jun 18, 2013 5:00:00 PM
By Chris Tevere, CMT
Summary Outlook: On Wednesday, June 19th, the FOMC concludes their 2-day meeting and will release their June statement in conjunction with the summary of economic projections at 14:00ET/18:00GMT, followed by Bernanke’s news conference at 14:30ET/18:30GMT. We do not anticipate any major changes to monetary policy (0-0.25%) or the Fed’s current $85B a month pace of Quantitative Easing – $45B of Treasuries and $40B of Mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Accordingly, the markets will likely focus on the tone of the FOMC statement and [...] Continue Reading
Updated Jun 18, 2013 3:10:00 PM
By Eric Viloria, CMT
GBP/USD’s break above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and 1.57 figure was short lived. The failure to sustain above the 200-day and spinning top candlestick that formed yesterday suggests the potential for a correction to the downside. Cable briefly dipped below the 1.56 figure today before finding support around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from May 28 lows to yesterday’s highs. Some key levels to watch: Support Resistance [...] Continue Reading
Updated Jun 18, 2013 11:25:00 AM
By Chris Tevere, CMT
EURUSD bottomed during the European session earlier today and found initial resistance into 1.3400. The single currency then weakened after the firmer CPI and US housing data, however it once again found a bottom ahead of the European lows – This was coincided by an RSI bullish divergence. Should EURUSD break above the noted 1.3400 level, it could make a run at the ATR target of 1.3426. If this is achieved, then look for [...] Continue Reading
Updated Jun 18, 2013 9:20:00 AM
By Eric Viloria, CMT
As part of the Fed’s dual mandate is to achieve price stability, inflation is a closely watched measure. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure is for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), however the consumer price index (CPI) is closely tracked by the central bank as well. CPI data released today showed a lower than expected monthly increase with a print of +0.1% (cons. +0.2%) from the prior -0.4% in April. This was due to a drop in [...] Continue Reading
Updated Jun 18, 2013 6:30:00 AM
By Kathleen Brooks
This is usually a pointless exercise. The major markets are trading with a slightly more optimistic tone as we wait for tomorrow’s Fed meeting. European equities are close to the highs of the session after opening lower, the change in sentiment has also been reflected in the FX market: EURUSD touched 1.3400 earlier after an encouraging ZEW survey from Germany, while GBPUSD made another attempt at 1.57 after stronger than expected inflation. Sell the [...] Continue Reading
Updated Jun 18, 2013 3:15:00 AM
By Kathleen Brooks
The Aussie has been under pressure this morning after the release of the minutes from the last RBA meeting confirmed the dovish bias at the bank. The key takeaway from the minutes included: 1, there is room for further rate cuts if the economic conditions warrant further action and 2, the RBA still views the level of AUDUSD as too high, even after a 10% drop in the last 3 months. The fundamental backdrop [...] Continue Reading
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