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USD/SEK at 2014 Highs – Could We See 6.70 Next?

Updated -  Apr 16, 2014 2:05:00 PM By Matt Weller

At the beginning of this month, we highlighted a developing pattern on the USD/SEK that pointed to a possible pullback from the key 6.50 area (see “Wait a SEK!” below for more details). As it turned out, the pair found support quickly at the initial 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (6.4420) and turned back higher shortly after the article was published. As always, we specifically mentioned the level where our outlook would shift; in this case, that [...] Continue Reading


GBP/USD and GBP/JPY could break higher after strong UK jobs data

Updated -  Apr 16, 2014 12:20:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

The pound extended its gains this morning following the release of some cheerful jobs data out of the UK. The GBP/USD climbed to an initial high of almost 1.6820, which was the previous 2014 high, while the GBP/JPY climbed to its highest in nearly two weeks. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 6.9% in the three months to February from 7.2% previously as the number of people out of work dropped by 77,000 to [...] Continue Reading


Crude oil climbs to multi-week highs amid on-going crisis in Ukraine, inventories eyed

Updated -  Apr 16, 2014 10:25:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

The price of crude oil continues to rise in response to the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, with Brent climbing to a 6-week high of $110 per barrel today. The “anti-terrorist” operation started yesterday and Ukrainian troops have retaken the eastern city of Kramatorsk’s airfield from pro-Russian rebels. Russian President Vladimir Putin has described the country as being on the brink of civil war. Oil investors are shrugging off signs of weaker demand in [...] Continue Reading


Time for the Bank of England to take notice of UK economic strength?

Updated -  Apr 16, 2014 9:00:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

The UK labour market has shown its mettle yet again, after cooling off a little in recent months, the UK is once again creating jobs at a rapid clip. Comparing the three months to February with the previous three months, the number of employed people increased by 239k, the number of unemployed people fell by 77,000 and the number of adults not in the labour force fell by 86,000. The number of employed people [...] Continue Reading


BOC Preview: Poloz to Focus on USD/CAD?

Updated -  Apr 16, 2014 8:50:00 AM By Matt Weller

In what could be one of the biggest fundamental catalysts left ahead of the holiday weekend, the Bank of Canada has its regular monetary policy meeting today at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT). While the bank will almost certainly make no changes to monetary policy today, traders will be closely monitoring what the bank says about the economy, and crucially, the outlook for inflation moving forward. When the bank dropped its hawkish bias last October, it [...] Continue Reading


China’s potential growth dilemma

Updated -  Apr 16, 2014 12:44:42 AM By Chris Tedder

A slew of high-profile economic figures were released from China today, with mixed results. China’s GDP growth slowed sharply in Q1, falling to its lowest level in six quarters. Yet, the world’s second largest economy grew slightly more than the market was expecting at 7.4% y/y (expected 7.3%, prior 7.7%), but below Beijing’s annual growth target of 7.5%. The market is asking: is today’s data going to prompt policy makers to boost stimulus or [...] Continue Reading


The kiwi took a battering after NZ’s Q1 inflation data missed estimates. Consumer prices rose 0.3% q/q, less than an expected 0.5% increase (prior 0.1%), which casts some doubt over the market’s assumptions about the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) tightening cycle. The market is pricing in some fairly aggressive monetary policy tightening from the RBNZ in the next couple of years, underpinned by predicted strong growth and inflation. While today’s figures aren’t [...] Continue Reading


North American Wrap-up: The Ukraine Fade

Updated -  Apr 15, 2014 4:26:02 PM By Neal Gilbert

The Ukraine Fade North American markets started out on the right foot today, but were quickly swept off it due to escalating tensions in eastern Ukraine. While markets have been largely ignoring the situation in Russia’s former province since Crimea was annexed, the actions of today refused to be ignored. For those who missed it, Ukrainian military forces ousted Russian supporters from government buildings and airports conspicuously close to the border with their larger neighbor, [...] Continue Reading


Signs of a Bullish Turn in GBP/AUD?

Updated -  Apr 15, 2014 1:50:00 PM By Matt Weller

Nearly a month ago, we highlighted the uncanny convergence of multiple bearish technical signals (see “GBP/AUD: Six Technical Signs of a Longer-Term Top” for more). Since then, the GBP/AUD has collapsed around 400 pips, and though we still haven’t reached the intermediate target near 1.7600, there is a growing body of technical evidence that suggests the pair may have seen a near-term bottom. First, and perhaps most importantly, rates have broken above the bearish [...] Continue Reading


This strange new world of risk aversion

Updated -  Apr 15, 2014 12:30:00 PM By Kathleen Brooks

Tuesday saw some interesting price action; European stocks fell sharply on the back of a few factors and were led lower by Italy’s FTSE MIB, which fell more than 2%. However, at the same time as Italian stocks were being sold sharply, investors were buying Italian bonds and 10-year GBT yields actually fell. As you can see in the chart below, the FTSE MIB (white line) usually moves in the opposite direction to bond [...] Continue Reading


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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

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