Updated Feb 3, 2012 4:00:00 PM By Brian Dolan, Chief Currency Strategist
Better data drives risk on, Fed QE3 off The past week ended with a string of better-than-expected data releases from key major economies, suggesting the global recovery may avoid a more worrisome downturn. Mostly better than expected PMI’s from Europe, UK, China and the US were supplemented on Friday by a much stronger US employment report than was expected. We’re cautiously optimistic that the better US jobs report is a valid signal that the [...] Continue Reading
Updated Feb 3, 2012 1:40:00 PM By Chris Tevere, CMT
Earlier today the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced their January Employment report. By and large across the board this was a very strong report, with Jan. Non-Farm Payrolls coming in at 243K vs. the consensus forecast of 140K (whispers on the street were for even lower around 120K), Jan. Unemployment rate ticked down to 8.3% versus the exp. 8.5% (almost saw 8.2% as the actual figure was 8.26%, thus it was rounded higher [...] Continue Reading
Updated Feb 3, 2012 12:20:00 PM By Daniel Hwang
The Jan. NFP cards have been dealt and US equities are up more than +1% on the back of the much better than expected figures (243k vs. consensus 140k on the headline number, 257k vs. 160k for private payrolls). In FX, ZAR (South African Rand) gaining +1% vs. USD so far, outpacing most of its G10 and EM counterparts. MXN (Mexican Peso) trailing rand’s upside vs. the buck but +0.72% in daily gains doesn’t look [...] Continue Reading
Updated Feb 3, 2012 8:10:00 AM By Eric Viloria, CMT
• USD is slightly weaker and sentiment is moderately higher after better than expected services PMI figures in Europe. Asian equities were mixed and European stock markets and U.S. stock futures are currently trading to the upside. UST yields are relatively unchanged ahead of key data. Markets have consolidated and are awaiting the January employment report which is expected to show a gain of 140k jobs on the headline NFP reading (prior 200k) while the [...] Continue Reading
Updated Feb 3, 2012 1:38:01 AM By Chris Tedder
Risk currencies sunk lower in Asia today, with some investors likely choosing to stay on the sidelines ahead of the payrolls report out of the US at 08:30EST. The few headline data releases out during the session also failed to alter investor sentiment. Equity markets faced the same issues, but they were also hampered by downbeat corporate earnings. Overnight, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao stated that China is considering how to get more involved in [...] Continue Reading
Updated Feb 3, 2012 1:36:03 AM By Chris Tedder
Overnight, European and US equities once again found themselves subject to sentiment surrounding Greek debt talks, resulting in sessions characterised by consolidation trading. Also, some investors might be on the sidelines ahead of the payrolls report out of the US at 08:30 EST. In Asia, major equity markets are mixed, but the JPN225 and AUS200 are in the red. Nonetheless, some mining stocks in Australia gained on news that Glencore International, the world’s largest [...] Continue Reading
Updated Feb 2, 2012 7:28:23 PM By Chris Tedder
Uncertainty surrounding Greek private sector debt talks kept markets in consolidation mode overnight. Nevertheless, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao caused a small spike in EUR when he stated that China is considering greater involvement in the EFSF and ESM rescue funds. Beijing holds the world’s largest FX reserves and this $3.2 trillion cash stash could provide a significant boost to Europe’s bail-out funds. However, the Premier also added that China is still researching ways to participate, [...] Continue Reading
Updated Feb 2, 2012 6:55:00 PM By Chris Tevere, CMT
The Loonie has slowly grinded higher relative to the USD over the past few weeks (thus USD/CAD lower) alongside the strong ‘risk’ rally during the month on January. However, USD/CAD is approaching a key technical convergence zone around 0.9960/65 – Sees the 200-day sma (blue) as well as the 1:1 equidistant measured move (grey). Consequently, this could make for an ideal time for the USD to make a late-round comeback and KO the CAD. However, [...] Continue Reading
Updated Feb 2, 2012 4:20:00 PM By Eric Viloria, CMT
Markets were relatively quiet ahead of tomorrow’s employment report and the dollar traded slightly firmer amid Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony in Washington. The Fed Chairman warned of fiscal policy risks and called for close monitoring of economic developments. On the Fed’s mandates, he said that inflation looks “very well controlled” but that the Fed wants more progress on unemployment. When questioned on the topic of QE, Bernanke only noted that the policy is similar [...] Continue Reading
Updated Feb 2, 2012 3:00:00 PM By Brian Dolan, Chief Currency Strategist
January US Employment Report Summary Outlook: On Friday, February 3 at 0830ET/1330GMT the US is forecast to report a change in non-farm payrolls (NFP) of +144K (prior +200K; range +225/+95K), a change in private payrolls of +163K (prior +212K; range +250K/+11K) and a steady unemployment rate of 8.5% (range 8.7/8.3%), according to Bloomberg market surveys. Interim jobs indicators do not suggest to us there has been a meaningful change in the pace of hiring, and [...] Continue Reading
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