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Live Updates

Will there be another Ruble rout?

Updated -  Jul 31, 2015 9:40:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

Back in Jan/ Feb the Ruble was under attack, USDRUB reached a record high of nearly 80.00, causing intervention from Russian officials and hasty rate hikes to stem the decline in the currency. Things calmed down for the RUB over the next few months, however, it started to drift higher in June, as US dollar strength gathered pace, and the RUB has been the worst performer in the emerging market FX space this week.  [...] Continue Reading

USDCHF Testing Bullish Trend Line after ECI Bombshell

Updated -  Jul 31, 2015 9:25:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

If you have no clue what the “ECI” in the title is, you’re hardly alone. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly measure of the amount that companies and the government are paying their employees. Usually, this second-tier report barely even garners even a passing mention in the business news, but with the Fed’s recent shift to focusing on inflation as the last missing piece in the rate hike puzzle, some traders have [...] Continue Reading

NZDJPY’s hit from both sides

Updated -  Jul 30, 2015 10:44:10 PM By Chris Tedder

NZDJPY peaked just above 94.00 at the end of 2014, before plummeting in January and again in June. The totality of the sell-off was almost 1,400 at its lowest point, despite gains in USDJPY. It was a widespread and a brutal sell-off in the kiwi that derailed the pair, with the commodity currency coming under assault from weaker commodity prices, soft risk appetite and a deteriorating outlook for interest rates. Bears don’t appear to [...] Continue Reading

July Month-End Model Points to Modest Dollar Weakness

Updated -  Jul 30, 2015 3:05:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

Background: Traders often refer the impact of ‘month end flows’ on different currency pairs during the last few days of the month. In essence, these money ‘flows’ are caused by global fund managers and investors rebalancing their currency exposure based on market movements over the last month. For example, if the value of one country’s equity and bond markets increases, these fund managers typically look to sell or hedge their now-elevated exposure to that country’s [...] Continue Reading

Should the markets be worried about Greek political turmoil?

Updated -  Jul 30, 2015 1:35:00 PM By Kathleen Brooks

In recent weeks the Greek crisis has receded into the distance, other concerns such as the volatility in the Chinese stock market and the timing of a potential first rate hike from the Federal Reserve have taken centre stage and the dominated market action. Understandably, once it looked like Greece would be able to secure a third bailout and accept its creditors conditions the markets started to look elsewhere for market-moving events. However, now the [...] Continue Reading

USDCAD: Under-the-Surface Strength in US GDP Could Target 11-Year High

Updated -  Jul 30, 2015 8:50:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

While it’s typically the marquee event for any given week (if not the whole month), yesterday’s FOMC monetary policy statement was a bit of a dud (see “FOMC Instant Reaction: “Nearly” There, but “Further” Improvement Needed” for more). The central bank made only small tweaks to its monetary policy statement, careful not to tip the scales in the increasingly important “September vs. December” debate over liftoff for interest rates. The dollar saw a bit [...] Continue Reading

AUDNZD’s comeback run

Updated -  Jul 30, 2015 1:09:37 AM By Chris Tedder

AUDNZD is making a comeback in Asia after suffering a huge sell-off in recent weeks. In mid-July the pair bounced off an important resistance zone around 1.1400 before drifting almost 500 pips lower to a support zone around 1.0900. Since then AUDNZD has regained some of this lost ground, despite softer than expected economic data out of Australia and mildly hawkish comments from RBNZ Governor Wheeler. Yesterday, Wheeler noted during a speech that whilst [...] Continue Reading

FOMC Instant Reaction: “Nearly” There, but “Further” Improvement Needed

Updated -  Jul 29, 2015 2:25:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

As we noted in our FOMC preview report, analysts and traders were unanimous in their expectation that the central bank would leave interest rates unchanged in the 0.00-0.25% range, and the Fed provided no surprises on that front. That said, the world’s most important central bank still gave traders plenty to chew over in its first monetary policy statement of Q3. First, the headlines from this month’s statement [emphasis mine]: Earlier today, analysts coalesced [...] Continue Reading

Can the Fed disrupt the GBPUSD rally?

Updated -  Jul 29, 2015 11:00:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

Ahead of this evening’s FOMC meeting, the pound is the strongest performer in the G10 FX space. Sterling is still benefitting from the decent GDP figure released on Tuesday, which has triggered a 150 pip rally in two days, not bad for end of July markets. As we lead up to the FOMC meeting, GBPUSD is currently above the most recent peaks on 17th and 23rd July, and is at its highest level of [...] Continue Reading

Could the Fed Push USDJPY Above the “Kuroda Line”?

Updated -  Jul 29, 2015 10:10:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

It’s been a quiet overnight session for most major currencies as market participants refrained from placing large trades ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. As we noted yesterday, the central bank is unlikely to make any outright changes to monetary policy, but the wording of the accompanying statement could tilt the scales in the hotly-contested “September vs. December” (for the first rate hike) debate. Heading into the release, USDJPY may be the most important currency [...] Continue Reading

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) in Canada and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) in Hong Kong. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.


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