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EM Rundown: Which EM Currencies are Most Vulnerable to a Grexit?

Updated -  Jun 29, 2015 3:40:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

As most FX traders know by now, the negotiations over Greece’s debt took a sharp turn for the worse over the weekend, culminating in the Greek government’s decision to call a public referendum on its creditors’ proposal on this coming Sunday. Early opinion polls suggest that the Greek populace is leaning toward voting “yes” (i.e. accepting the proposals in order to secure more bailout funds), but emerging market FX traders are likely to remain on [...] Continue Reading


June Month-End Dollar Selling May be Dwarfed by Greek Drama

Updated -  Jun 29, 2015 1:50:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

Background: Traders often refer the impact of ‘month end flows’ on different currency pairs during the last few days of the month. In essence, these money ‘flows’ are caused by global fund managers and investors rebalancing their currency exposure based on market movements over the last month. For example, if the value of one country’s equity and bond markets increases, these fund managers typically look to sell or hedge their now-elevated exposure to that country’s [...] Continue Reading


EUR/JPY: Mind the gap

Updated -  Jun 29, 2015 12:20:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

On Wednesday of last week, we published a mostly technical piece on the EUR/JPY. As you may recall, we noted that the rally had stalled around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the downswing from the December peak at 140.70. The 61.8% Fibonacci level represents a deep retracement, which together with the slowdown in the bullish trend, led us to think that the EUR/JPY would probably break out from its bullish channel and that [...] Continue Reading


Greek Pin Action: Will GBP Take on CHF’s Safe Haven Mantle?

Updated -  Jun 29, 2015 10:55:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

As Greece’s debt negotiations deteriorated this weekend, traders piled in to buy the “safe-haven” Swiss franc. In turn, the rapid appreciation in the value of the franc prompted the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to intervene in the FX market to stabilize the gains in its currency. In explaining the move, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan stated, We have always said that we are active in the foreign exchange market if necessary…[a] situation like we experienced over [...] Continue Reading


Eurozone: is deflation back?

Updated -  Jun 29, 2015 9:55:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

Only a few weeks ago it looked like the spectre of deflation had finally lifted from the Eurozone. However, today’s German CPI figures throw that into doubt. EU harmonised data for June shows that CPI fell 0.2% on the month, which pushed the annual rate down to 0.1% from 0.7% in May. So, is this just a pause in the uptrend for CPI, or is the trend over before it even began? To answer [...] Continue Reading


DAX: stocks vulnerable as Greece flirts with default

Updated -  Jun 29, 2015 6:50:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

Risk was totally off the menu first thing this morning. The European stock markets plunged as the situation in Greece deteriorated at the weekend after the government rejected the latest bailout offer from its international creditors, called for a referendum and subsequently imposed capital controls. But the major European indices have since bounced off their lows as traders who had sold into last week’s rally, took some profit on their positions near key technical levels. [...] Continue Reading


Greece: how bad is the latest development for financial markets?

Updated -  Jun 29, 2015 4:40:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

In a word, not yet. Yes, EURUSD gapped down at the Sunday open - the low was 1.0955, since then the EURUSD has managed to retrace 50% of the decline and is now testing 1.1060. Considering Greece’s position in the currency bloc is in the balance and default hangs like Damocles’ sword over Tsipras’s and co.’s heads, I can’t help but be impressed by the single currency’s relative “resilience”. Can markets get over the [...] Continue Reading


Chinese equities continue to tumble, despite a double rate cut

Updated -  Jun 29, 2015 1:30:21 AM By Chris Tedder

The huge sell-off in the euro has nothing on the movements of Chinese equities. The sell-off in the Shanghai Composite continues today, despite moves by the PBoC to calm equity bears. The index did open around 2.2% higher but bears quickly dragged it into the red – it’s down around 5.7% at the time of writing. The tech-heavy Shenzhen is taking even more of a beating, after falling around 7.9% on Friday the index has [...] Continue Reading


Bears feast on the euro and equities as the risk of a Grexit greatly increases

Updated -  Jun 28, 2015 9:52:23 PM By Chris Tedder

It has been a wild morning in Asia for asset markets throughout the world. Over the weekend, Greece failed to reach a deal with its creditors as Athens announced plans for a referendum on the debt deal. Even on Friday the market had faith that Greece and its creditors would reach a deal over the weekend to secure another bailout, and the surprise decision to hold a snap referendum greatly increases the risk that the [...] Continue Reading


Here we go again – third Greek bailout offered…

Updated -  Jun 26, 2015 9:30:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

The ECB, EU and IMF appear to have offered Greece another bailout programme worth EUR 15.5bn over 5 months, according to EU officials and the German media. This deal does not come for free; it will require another aid programme, i.e., austerity cuts, and still needs to be accepted by Greece. This cash-for-reforms deal was apparently what was pushed on Greek PM Tsipras during his tete-a-tete with Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande earlier today. [...] Continue Reading


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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

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