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US GDP Instant Reaction: The Tainted Core under Multiple Layers of the GDP Onion

Updated -  Jan 30, 2015 8:55:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

Hopes were high heading into the release of today’s Q4 GDP report, and at first blush, the headline figure failed to live up to expectations. The first estimate of US economic growth came in at 2.6%, below economists’ anticipated reading of 3.0%. However, there is a lot more nuance “under the hood” of this complex report. Peeling away the first layer of the onion reveals some potentially bullish news. The Personal Consumption component of GDP [...] Continue Reading

US earnings season: Apple papers over the cracks

Updated -  Jan 30, 2015 7:40:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

With about half of US companies having reported 2014 earnings for this year, it is worth taking a look at how is faring and what, if any major themes could be developing that could determine the direction of stock markets for the rest of this quarter. Results so far: Nearly half of US companies have reported 2014 results so far, and the picture has been fairly mixed. While all sectors apart from [...] Continue Reading

FTSE: will UK earnings provide index stimulus to break through 6900?

Updated -  Jan 30, 2015 7:20:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

After a strong rally from mid-January, thanks in part to the actions of the ECB, the FTSE is now consolidating near the multi-year resistance hurdle of 6900. The consolidation near this 6900 barrier does not surprise us; after all, this is not the first time we have seen the market hesitate here. In fact, this level has provided resistance for a good 2.5 years now. Investors are probably waiting for fresh stimulus to provide them [...] Continue Reading

The Nikkei jumps on disappointing Japanese economic data

Updated -  Jan 29, 2015 11:47:23 PM By Chris Tedder

At first glance the above title may seem somewhat counterintuitive; one may expect that an equity index, an asset class that is generally classed as risky, to retreat on the back of economic data that shows its home country is underperforming the market’s expectations. However, the market is banking on the fact that softer than expected economic data will keep the QE flood gates open for a prolonged period of time, which is generally a [...] Continue Reading

China roundup: the doomsayers are getting louder

Updated -  Jan 29, 2015 9:41:25 PM By Chris Tedder

It has been a big month of data releases from China, most of which haven’t painted a very rosy picture of the economy. The biggest release was Q4 GDP numbers which showed that the economy grew 7.4% YTD y/y, missing the government’s official 7.5% growth target for last year. It’s true that this was a soft and outdated target, thus it didn’t come as a surprise to the market when the economy grew at a [...] Continue Reading

AUDNZD: Who’s Weaker?

Updated -  Jan 29, 2015 3:47:37 PM By Neal Gilbert

The commodity currencies of Australia and New Zealand have really been abused of late as their central banks have leaked that they could be cutting interest rates or backed away quickly from a hawkish stance respectively. When viewing the context of the decisions to lean more dovish for both nation’s central banks -- falling milk prices, falling oil, falling copper, Eurozone Quantitative Easing, a slowing China, etc. -- it makes complete sense for them to [...] Continue Reading

January Month-End Model Suggests Strong Dollar Rally, Pending GDP

Updated -  Jan 29, 2015 2:45:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

Background: Traders often refer the impact of ‘month end flows’ on different currency pairs during the last few days of the month. In essence, these money ‘flows’ are caused by global fund managers and investors rebalancing their currency exposure based on market movements over the last month. For example, if the value of one country’s equity and bond markets increases, these fund managers typically look to sell or hedge their now-elevated exposure to that country’s [...] Continue Reading

Gold’s $30 drop: overreaction or sign of things to come?

Updated -  Jan 29, 2015 1:40:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

Today saw gold turn sharply lower, partially in response to a rebounding European stock market. In other words, the safe haven asset has lost out in favour of the riskier stocks. What’s more, the dollar has risen once again today and this has weighed on some buck-denominated commodities, including precious metals and crude oil with WTI dropping to a fresh multi-year low sub-$44 a barrel. Meanwhile as the CFTC reported on Friday, bullish speculation has [...] Continue Reading

Denmark: will EUR/DKK peg survive?

Updated -  Jan 29, 2015 11:30:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

Denmark shocked the markets again today and cut its deposit rate even deeper into negative territory. The rate is now -0.5% from -0.35%, which is the lowest ever level. This follows last week’s cut to rates in the wake of the ECB meeting. The reason for the cut is to maintain the Danish krone’s peg with the EUR. The EURDKK rate had climbed since last week’s ECB decision and subsequent Danish action; however, after [...] Continue Reading

Stocks: earnings alert

Updated -  Jan 29, 2015 10:55:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

We are in the middle of Q4 2014 earnings season right now, with global companies reporting results for last year. So far a few themes are coming to the surface: the strong dollar is hurting US multinationals, and a sharp drop in the oil price is wreaking havoc in the energy sector. Next week we witness a further glut of global earnings, below are the biggest companies to watch out for.  [...] Continue Reading

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) in Canada and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) in Hong Kong. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.



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