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EM Rundown: Greece is Small, China is Big

Updated -  Jul 6, 2015 2:45:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

In last week’s EM Rundown we explored which EM currencies were most vulnerable to a potential Grexit, and while a Greek exit from the Eurozone looks more likely than ever, there is a much bigger risk for EM FX emanating from China, whose economy is roughly 40 times larger than that of Greece. Over the weekend, China intensified its efforts to bolster confidence in its equity market, which has fallen a staggering 30% in [...] Continue Reading

GBP/CAD jumps as oil tumbles

Updated -  Jul 6, 2015 12:30:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

The GBP/CAD currency pair is one to watch over the next couple of days, for not only is it looking interesting from a technical point of view, but the fundamentals are in play too. As Canada is a major oil exporter, its currency is influenced heavily by the price of the black stuff. Crude oil has plunged sharply in recent days on renewed worries about the excessive supply of oil. A nuclear agreement with [...] Continue Reading

Gold: It’s Groundhog Day All Over Again for Frustrated Bulls

Updated -  Jul 6, 2015 9:20:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

Last week, we analyzed the (lack of) safe haven demand for gold in the wake of Greece’s deteriorating debt negotiations, noting that “the yellow metal …[was] dramatically lagging its safe-haven rivals” and that “this week’s lackluster reaction suggests that gold may be losing its luster and on the verge of a big breakdown” (see “Gold: Safe Haven No More?”). Gold subsequently dropped to a new nearly 4-month low at 1156 on Thursday before recovering [...] Continue Reading

Stocks recover after Greece vote but remain vulnerable

Updated -  Jul 6, 2015 5:50:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

Some market participants may be surprised about the resilience of the markets given the increased uncertainty about Greece in light of the weekend’s Greece referendum outcome. But a quick look at the charts reveal that stocks remain significantly lower than where they had closed on Friday of the prior week when the referendum was first announced, and they are also still below the close of last Friday’s levels. In other words, some of the bad [...] Continue Reading

RBA preview: no change as concerns about China and Greece sink AUD

Updated -  Jul 6, 2015 1:41:20 AM By Chris Tedder

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep its power dry at its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. Since cutting the cash rate in may the RBA maintained an implicit easing bias at its policy meeting in June, while its board members expressed an explicit easing bias at other times. It’s clear the bank remains in wait-and-see mode with its figure on the policy-trigger, but it’s not ready to shoot yet. The [...] Continue Reading

Greece voted no but the market doesn’t seem overly concerned

Updated -  Jul 5, 2015 7:21:31 PM By Chris Tedder

The initial reaction from the market to Greece’s decision to reject a compromise with its creditors is bad, but not horrific, at least not yet. Equity futures are down across the board and the euro has been hammered. EURUSD was down over 1.2% at one stage, before recovering some of this ground later in the morning. It seems the market may be preparing for a possible repeat of last Monday’s price action after the [...] Continue Reading

Oxi, morons: Greece votes no, now for the moment of truth

Updated -  Jul 5, 2015 5:27:12 PM By Chris Tedder

So Merkel and Hollande have decided not to go it alone on Greece and instead have called a leaders summit now that things are getting serious in Athens. From a market perspective, it looks like the EUR has broken through 1.10, but is still only likely to open down 1%, while the German Dax is down some 3.5%. These movements are roughly similar to those that we saw last Sunday night [...] Continue Reading

Stocks set for volatile Monday as Greek vote looms

Updated -  Jul 3, 2015 11:50:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

The stock market open on Monday could be a messy one and very difficult to predict given the uncertain outcome of Sunday’s Greek vote, with the latest polls contradicting each other and showing strong support for both camps. As far as the equity market is concerned, the best outcome would probably be if the Greeks voted “yes” to the proposals offered by Greece’s creditors. Although this may see Alexis Tsipras step down as Prime Minister, [...] Continue Reading

Crude oil on shaky footing

Updated -  Jul 3, 2015 5:30:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

Crude prices fell dramatically on Wednesday with WTI taking the brunt of the sell-off as it plunged more than 4% following the publication of the latest Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) oil inventories data which showed a surprise build of 2.4 million barrels. This was the first build in stockpiles since the end of April, ending a run of 8 weekly declines. Yesterday morning, oil prices were initially higher as traders took advantage of quieter market [...] Continue Reading

EURAUD: eyes on Greece and then the RBA

Updated -  Jul 3, 2015 12:45:59 AM By Chris Tedder

It’s been another eventful day for the Australia dollar following the release of softer than expected domestic retail sales numbers. Retail sales increased a measly 0.3% m/m in May, after falling a revised 0.1% in April. The market was expecting sales to have increased 0.5% over the month, thus the aussie sunk on the back of the figures. In fact, AUDUSD was hit very hard, considering the numbers only just missed expectations. However, the Australia [...] Continue Reading

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) in Canada and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) in Hong Kong. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.


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