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EM Rundown: The CBR’s “Signals by Omission”

Updated -  Aug 3, 2015 2:30:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

There’s a decidedly risk-off tone to the markets on the first Monday of August, with the US dollar and bonds edging higher at the expense of US equities and oil in particular. This same pattern is evident in the less-monitored world of emerging market currencies as well, where currencies like the Mexican peso, South African rand, and Turkish lira are all trading lower against the greenback thus far. As we briefly noted in  [...] Continue Reading

Gold’s next move could be huge, but which direction will it be?

Updated -  Aug 3, 2015 12:30:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

Gold ended last week only marginally lower thanks to Friday’s noticeable bounce which saw the precious metal momentarily surpass the $1100 handle. Friday’s counter-trend move was partly in response to news that the second quarter US Employment Cost Index (ECI) showed a very small rise of 0.2% in wage pressure. Traders responded to the data by booking some profit on their long dollar and short gold positions as the month drew to a close. Nevertheless, [...] Continue Reading

USDCAD Bulls on Parade…Where Will the Stampede Stop?

Updated -  Aug 3, 2015 8:40:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

As my colleague Fawad Razaqzada noted earlier today, the big market theme at the start of this week is persistent weakness in oil prices. Both the WTI and Brent contracts are at new multi-month lows this morning and are within sight of the multi-year lows set earlier in 2015 after record high oil output from OPEC (see “Crude Extends Decline on Record OPEC Oil Output” for more). Beyond the oil market itself, this [...] Continue Reading

Crude extends decline on record OPEC oil output

Updated -  Aug 3, 2015 7:20:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

Crude oil prices continue to head south. As before, they are being driven lower predominantly because of the disequilibrium created from the supply side of the equation. In fact, it is not just the actual supply but the expected growth in supply that are also weighing on prices. Although the demand outlook has improved somewhat, it is nowhere near strong enough to help offset the steep rises in supply. The latest manufacturing data from China [...] Continue Reading

It’s a massive week for AUDNZD

Updated -  Aug 3, 2015 12:45:55 AM By Chris Tedder

The Australian dollar is drifting lower in Asia after a softer than expected reading of private sector Chinese manufacturing PMI for July. Caixin’s Manufacturing PMI dropped to a two-year low at 47.8, well below expectations, July’s flash reading and the 50-mark which separates expansion and contraction. This paints a much bleaker picture of China’s manufacturing sector than the official figures which were released on Saturday; official manufacturing PMI was 50, down from 50.2 in June. [...] Continue Reading

RBA Preview: the policy scales are quivering

Updated -  Aug 2, 2015 9:23:45 PM By Chris Tedder

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to leave the official cash rate at 2.00% at its policy meeting on Tuesday. There has been no indication over the last month that the RBA will deviate from its implicit dovish stance at this meeting. Economic data and events haven’t been shocking enough to wake the RBA from its slumber, despite a tightening of credit conditions in the housing market. Higher interest rates in the [...] Continue Reading

Will there be another Ruble rout?

Updated -  Jul 31, 2015 9:40:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

Back in Jan/ Feb the Ruble was under attack, USDRUB reached a record high of nearly 80.00, causing intervention from Russian officials and hasty rate hikes to stem the decline in the currency. Things calmed down for the RUB over the next few months, however, it started to drift higher in June, as US dollar strength gathered pace, and the RUB has been the worst performer in the emerging market FX space this week.  [...] Continue Reading

USDCHF Testing Bullish Trend Line after ECI Bombshell

Updated -  Jul 31, 2015 9:25:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

If you have no clue what the “ECI” in the title is, you’re hardly alone. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly measure of the amount that companies and the government are paying their employees. Usually, this second-tier report barely even garners even a passing mention in the business news, but with the Fed’s recent shift to focusing on inflation as the last missing piece in the rate hike puzzle, some traders have [...] Continue Reading

NZDJPY’s hit from both sides

Updated -  Jul 30, 2015 10:44:10 PM By Chris Tedder

NZDJPY peaked just above 94.00 at the end of 2014, before plummeting in January and again in June. The totality of the sell-off was almost 1,400 at its lowest point, despite gains in USDJPY. It was a widespread and a brutal sell-off in the kiwi that derailed the pair, with the commodity currency coming under assault from weaker commodity prices, soft risk appetite and a deteriorating outlook for interest rates. Bears don’t appear to [...] Continue Reading

July Month-End Model Points to Modest Dollar Weakness

Updated -  Jul 30, 2015 3:05:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

Background: Traders often refer the impact of ‘month end flows’ on different currency pairs during the last few days of the month. In essence, these money ‘flows’ are caused by global fund managers and investors rebalancing their currency exposure based on market movements over the last month. For example, if the value of one country’s equity and bond markets increases, these fund managers typically look to sell or hedge their now-elevated exposure to that country’s [...] Continue Reading

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) in Canada and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) in Hong Kong. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.


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