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Live Updates

NFP Recap: Clear as mud for the Fed’s September meeting

Updated -  Sep 4, 2015 2:45:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

At long last, traders are free to duck out for the long holiday weekend to celebrate the unofficial “end of summer.” That’s because, earlier this morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the marquee Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which we labeled a “colossal report that may tip the scales for the Federal Reserve” in yesterday’s NFP preview report. As it turns out, the scales may have been tipped, but only by an ounce [...] Continue Reading

Gold at weekly lows ahead of US jobs report

Updated -  Sep 4, 2015 7:30:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

The all-important “NFP day” finally arrives and the market will soon have one of the most important indicators about the health of the world’s largest economy. The marquee employment report should in turn indicate whether a 2015 rate hike is still on the cards, and if so when: September or December? Unless the number comes out miles ahead of expectations, a September rate increase is very unlikely, especially given the recent stock market turmoil and [...] Continue Reading

NFP Prep: Colossal jobs report may tip the scales for the Fed

Updated -  Sep 3, 2015 3:10:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

The August Non-Farm Payroll report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 ET (12:30 GMT, 1:30pm BST), with expectations centered on a headline print of 217k after last month’s as-expected 215k reading. My model suggests that the report could meet these expectations,with leading indicators suggesting an August headline NFP reading of 213K. The model has been historically reliable, showing a correlation coefficient of 0.90 with the unrevised NFP headline figure dating back to 2001 (1.0 would [...] Continue Reading

DAX surges on dovish ECB; bulls not out of woods yet

Updated -  Sep 3, 2015 1:30:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

The European stock markets have closed sharply higher today, led by a 2.7 per cent upsurge in the German DAX index. Sentiment has been boosted after the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi struck a particularly dovish tone at the ECB press conference today and signalled his willingness to take more action if needed. The ECB published lower forecasts for both inflation and GDP in the Eurozone, which is obviously not good news for the [...] Continue Reading

EUR/JPY: Draghi’n the euro down

Updated -  Sep 3, 2015 9:00:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

The release of this morning’s European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy statement was predictably uneventful, with the central bank leaving its main refinancing rate at 0.05%, its deposit rate at 0.20%, and its marginal lending facility at 0.30%. That said, the ongoing press conference with ECB President Mario Draghi has still managed to inject some volatility into the markets. There were a number of headlines from the first half of Draghi’s speech: In case you’re [...] Continue Reading

GBP/USD extends fall as UK services growth disappoints

Updated -  Sep 3, 2015 7:20:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

The pound has extended its falls, hitting its lowest level against the US dollar since early June, after growth in the UK services sector unexpectedly moved down a notch in August, according to the closely-watched purchasing managers' index (PMI) by Markit. Although activity in the UK’s dominant sector rose as the PMI was above 50, the 55.6 reading was lower than July’s 57.4 and below analyst expectations of 57.6. The PMIs for the manufacturing and [...] Continue Reading

Investor sentiment teeters on a knife-edge

Updated -  Sep 3, 2015 1:32:16 AM By Chris Tedder

It has been a choppy day for equity markets in Asia, with mixed results. China and Hong Kong are offline today, creating thin conditions and leaving investors without a major gauge of overall investor sentiment. Turmoil in Chinese stock markets and concern about its growth prospects have been at the forefront of investor sentiment lately, so markets are somewhat lacking overall direction today. The Nikkei is benefiting from a weakening of the yen in [...] Continue Reading

Will EUR/GBP bulls be singing “The (.7390) ceiling can’t hold us”?

Updated -  Sep 2, 2015 3:05:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

“Can we go back, this is the momentTonight is the night, we’ll fight 'til it’s overSo we put our hands up like the ceiling can’t hold usLike the ceiling can’t hold us” Macklemore, “Can’t Hold Us” We’ve looked at pound sterling from a couple of different directions so far this week (see here and here for more), but EUR/GBP may offer the most interesting setup, especially with the European Central [...] Continue Reading

Crude resume decline as inventories rise: bad news for CAD

Updated -  Sep 2, 2015 11:35:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

Crude traders have been given a rollercoaster ride. After surging some 25% in the space of just three days, prices collapsed by a huge 8 per cent yesterday. This morning saw both Brent and WTI contracts regain some ground but prices came under renewed selling pressure in the afternoon following the release of the official US stockpiles report from the EIA. The report showed, among other things, a sharp build of 4.7 million barrels in [...] Continue Reading

GBP/JPY: Double top may spell double trouble

Updated -  Sep 2, 2015 8:55:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

As the sun rises a hump day in the US, traders are ramping up for a busy final 48 hours of economic data. Earlier this morning, payroll provider ADP released its estimate of the August non-farm employment change, with the widely-watched leading indicator for NFP coming in at 190k, slightly below the 200k reading expected. In another mosquito-bite-sized annoyance for dollar bulls, the July ADP employment report was revised lower by 8k jobs, leaving the [...] Continue Reading

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) in Canada and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) in Hong Kong. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.


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