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Live Updates

Mixed economic messages from Japan

Updated -  Sep 29, 2014 8:48:51 PM By Chris Tedder

There has been a slew of economic data released from Japan this morning that sent the market some mixed signals. As a result USDJPY has been a little jumpy in early Asia trade, yet the pair seems to have stabilized around 109.40 for the time being, with investors also keeping a close eye on the protests in Hong Kong. Japan’s miraculous jobless rate Japan’s jobless rate unexpectedly dropped to 3.5% in August (the market [...] Continue Reading


EM Rundown: Fragile Five Revived?

Updated -  Sep 29, 2014 2:55:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

Back in late January of this year, the so-called “Fragile Five” emerging markets (Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, India, and Indonesia) came under fire as traders sold their currencies in a mini-EM contagion. These currencies were specifically hard hit due to their current account deficits, which leaves them dependent upon foreign investment to fund their economies. Thankfully, bold actions by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) and South African Central Bank (SARB) were [...] Continue Reading


Crude oil’s bearish trend weakening

Updated -  Sep 29, 2014 12:25:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

The price of Brent oil is little-changed today after dropping to its lowest level since June 2012 last week. Once again investors are by and large ignoring the prospects of supply disruptions in the Middle East amid the US-led bombings of IS targets in the region. Likewise they seem little concerned about the fact oil production in Libya has fallen slightly: according to the National Oil Corp (NOC), the country's crude output has fallen by [...] Continue Reading


September Month-End Model Favors Slight USD Strength

Updated -  Sep 29, 2014 8:30:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

Background: Traders often discuss how ‘month end’ flows may impact a currency or a currency pair during the last few day(s) of the month. These flows are caused by global portfolio managers rebalancing their existing currency hedges. If the value of one country’s equity and bond markets increases, these money managers typically look to sell or hedge their elevated risk in that country’s currency and rebalance their exposure back to an underperforming country’s currency. The [...] Continue Reading


Head, Shoulders, DAX has topped?

Updated -  Sep 29, 2014 7:40:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

European stocks are trading lower on this first day of the week, with some of the major indices such as the German DAX already below their lows from last week which in itself was a bad week for equities. Sentiment is downbeat for a variety of reasons, not least due to the growing unrest in Hong Kong and the on-going bombardments of IS targets in the Middle East. On top of this, the US Federal [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY: could Hong Kong protests dent the uptrend?

Updated -  Sep 29, 2014 6:10:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

This pair broke key resistance during the Asian session rising to a high of 109.75 – the highest level since September 2008. The break above 109.49 – the recent high – was significant, and opens the way to test 110.67 – the high from August 2008. Prime Minister Abe helped to give USDJPY a boost earlier, after announcing a strategy for his key economic reforms; this includes a review of the crippling seniority-based pay [...] Continue Reading


The RBNZ intervention rumours were true

Updated -  Sep 29, 2014 1:22:51 AM By Chris Tedder

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) sold net 521 million NZDs in the FX market last month, confirming the market’s suspicions that the bank intervened to weaken the kiwi. The RBNZ has been very clear about its distain for the seemingly overvalued commodity currency, with the bank continuously stating that the level of the NZD is unjustified and unsustainable. This rhetoric intensified last Thursday in a speech that caused the NZD to fall [...] Continue Reading


Another bad start to the week for AUDUSD

Updated -  Sep 28, 2014 9:35:14 PM By Chris Tedder

It has been a horrendous month for AUDUSD with the pair falling around 6.4% since the beginning of September, making the aussie the worst performing currency against the USD over this period. For many analysts and the RBA, the recent sell-off of the Australian dollar seemed inevitable. Falling commodity prices, a slowing Chinese economy, and the loosest monetary policy in the history of the RBA are all weighing on the commodity currency. Yet, the biggest [...] Continue Reading


AUDUSD: Next Week’s Trade Depends on Break of Short-Term Wedge Pattern

Updated -  Sep 26, 2014 9:15:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

Heading into the final trading session of the week, the US Dollar index is on track for its 11th consecutive weekly gain, extending its longest winning streak since the currency became free floating in 1973. While this is undoubtedly the strongest trend in the market right now, there are risks to the buck’s rally heading into next week. From a fundamental perspective, if next Friday’s high-impact Non-Farm Payroll report comes in below 200k again, it [...] Continue Reading


EURUSD: the “bear” necessities

Updated -  Sep 26, 2014 7:20:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

This pair made a bearish development on Thursday after it fell below an important level of support at 1.2754 – the July 2013 low. We mentioned earlier this week that the combination of a surge in the dollar and continued weakness in the EUR’s fundamentals could weigh on the single currency for the long-term. The break below the July 2013 low is significant, and in our view this opens the way to further downside for [...] Continue Reading


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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

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