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EURGBP: Is Pound’s Outperformance Ending?

Updated -  Jul 7, 2015 3:30:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

As the situation in Greece has deteriorated, many traders speculated that pound sterling would be the big beneficiary, serving as a regional safe haven for capital fleeing the Eurozone. Over the last several weeks, that theory has proven somewhat effective, but today’s big selloff (driven partly by weak manufacturing data out of the UK this morning) suggests that the pound’s outperformance may be coming to an end. Looking to the chart, EURGBP has dropped about [...] Continue Reading

Preview: UK Summer Budget 2015

Updated -  Jul 7, 2015 1:00:00 PM By Kathleen Brooks

Wednesday’s emergency Budget comes on the back of the Conservative Party’s victory in May’s election. Although events in Greece are stealing the limelight, we still think that this week’s Budget has the potential to cause volatility in GBP markets. The backdrop: The Conservatives have been fairly transparent about their desire to eliminate the budget deficit by the 2018/19 fiscal year, and most of the plans for spending cuts have already been leaked to [...] Continue Reading

Crude on slippery slope as supply concerns intensity

Updated -  Jul 7, 2015 10:37:05 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

As we reported the possibility at the end of last week, oil prices have absolutely plunged in recent days. On Monday alone, Brent dropped by more than 6% while WTI shed almost 8%. The vicious sell-off has been driven by a number of factors, not least the technical breakdown that resulted at the end of last week when Brent took out key support at $61.30 and WTI $56.50. The sell-off in WTI has been [...] Continue Reading

USDCAD May Have a Date with its Six-Year High as Oil’s Collapse Continues

Updated -  Jul 7, 2015 9:10:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

Global traders remain hyper-focused on the latest Greece-related rhetoric from such powerful luminaries as Latvia’s Central Bank Governor, Lithuania’s Finance Minister, and even the Finance Minister of Malta, but perhaps investors should be focusing just as much energy on the collapse in the price of …energy. In particular, oil has gone off the boil, with WTI falling nearly 8% in yesterday’s trade alone. Beyond an last week’s surprising increase in US [...] Continue Reading

EUR/USD on the verge as new Greek proposals awaited

Updated -  Jul 7, 2015 6:30:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

The EUR/USD is again sharply lower today as investors await fresh news from Greece. Following the weekend’s referendum which resulted in an emphatic “No” to the bailout offer from the trioka and the subsequent resignation of the outspoken Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, the focus is now on Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to present a new package of reforms to the euro zone leaders later today. If a deal is finally reached this week, it [...] Continue Reading

The RBA holds fire as the massacre of Chinese stocks continues

Updated -  Jul 7, 2015 2:10:13 AM By Chris Tedder

It has been another eventful day in Asia, with a monetary policy meeting in Australia and another massacre of Chinese equities. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the official cash rate at 2.0% as expected, citing already accommodative monetary policy. The bank reiterated that the Australian dollar should fall further given significant declines in key commodity prices but it remains in wait-and-see mode. The RBA’s policy meeting was largely a non-event for the [...] Continue Reading

EM Rundown: Greece is Small, China is Big

Updated -  Jul 6, 2015 2:45:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

In last week’s EM Rundown we explored which EM currencies were most vulnerable to a potential Grexit, and while a Greek exit from the Eurozone looks more likely than ever, there is a much bigger risk for EM FX emanating from China, whose economy is roughly 40 times larger than that of Greece. Over the weekend, China intensified its efforts to bolster confidence in its equity market, which has fallen a staggering 30% in [...] Continue Reading

GBP/CAD jumps as oil tumbles

Updated -  Jul 6, 2015 12:30:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

The GBP/CAD currency pair is one to watch over the next couple of days, for not only is it looking interesting from a technical point of view, but the fundamentals are in play too. As Canada is a major oil exporter, its currency is influenced heavily by the price of the black stuff. Crude oil has plunged sharply in recent days on renewed worries about the excessive supply of oil. A nuclear agreement with [...] Continue Reading

Gold: It’s Groundhog Day All Over Again for Frustrated Bulls

Updated -  Jul 6, 2015 9:20:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

Last week, we analyzed the (lack of) safe haven demand for gold in the wake of Greece’s deteriorating debt negotiations, noting that “the yellow metal …[was] dramatically lagging its safe-haven rivals” and that “this week’s lackluster reaction suggests that gold may be losing its luster and on the verge of a big breakdown” (see “Gold: Safe Haven No More?”). Gold subsequently dropped to a new nearly 4-month low at 1156 on Thursday before recovering [...] Continue Reading

Stocks recover after Greece vote but remain vulnerable

Updated -  Jul 6, 2015 5:50:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

Some market participants may be surprised about the resilience of the markets given the increased uncertainty about Greece in light of the weekend’s Greece referendum outcome. But a quick look at the charts reveal that stocks remain significantly lower than where they had closed on Friday of the prior week when the referendum was first announced, and they are also still below the close of last Friday’s levels. In other words, some of the bad [...] Continue Reading

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) in Canada and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) in Hong Kong. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.


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