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Live Updates

Dollar Index near top of bear channel

Updated -  May 24, 2016 12:45:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

The relentless rise in the Dollar Index has continued today. The dollar has been boosted mainly on renewed expectations of an earlier-than-expected rate hike in the US, possibly in June as the FOMC’s last meeting minutes suggest, or more likely in July, once the UK-EU referendum is out of the way. In addition, data from the US has generally been positive of late, though we have had outliers such as the manufacturing PMI yesterday which [...] Continue Reading


EUR/USD extends plunge as euro stagnates and dollar surges

Updated -  May 24, 2016 10:50:00 AM By James Chen, CMT

With the German ZEW economic sentiment coming out significantly lower than expected on Tuesday (6.4 vs 12.1 expected), and the US dollar continuing to surge based on renewed expectations of a near-term Fed rate hike, the EUR/USD has not had much reason to rise as of late. Economic stagnation in the euro area continues to weigh on an already-dovish European Central Bank that has been in persistent easing mode, dragging down the euro currency. Meanwhile, [...] Continue Reading


EU Referendum Watch: Brexit fears rise in Germany, fall in Britain

Updated -  May 24, 2016 7:30:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

With less than a month to go until the EU referendum, new forward-looking economic data released today suggests concerns about the possibility of Britain leaving the European Union is hurting investor sentiment in Germany. However, their concerns may be unjustifiably high as a fresh poll in the Telegraph showed the ‘remain’ camp was building a more decisive lead in the EU-UK referendum campaign. Consequently, the EUR/GBP slumped as the euro fell on the back of [...] Continue Reading


Yen surges on US warnings against Japanese intervention

Updated -  May 23, 2016 3:10:00 PM By James Chen, CMT

During the gathering of central bankers and finance ministers at the G7 meetings in Japan on Saturday, the US reiterated warnings to its host against intervening to weaken the yen. In the weeks prior to the meetings, Japanese officials had been issuing an intensifying stream of intervention rhetoric attempting to justify Japan’s readiness and willingness to take action in the event of exceptional yen volatility (or perhaps more accurately, yen strengthening). Partly as a result [...] Continue Reading


AUD/USD’s indecisiveness could lead to a sharp move

Updated -  May 23, 2016 12:45:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

A surprising decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates and a more hawkish-than-expected Federal Reserve meeting minutes has weighed heavily on the AUD/USD in recent times. The commodity currency has come under further pressure from renewed concerns about Australia’s largest trading partner, China. Incoming data from the world’s second largest economy over the past couple of weeks have been poor, raising concerns about the level of demand for Australia’s key commodity [...] Continue Reading


GBP/USD seeks direction within sustained bearish trend

Updated -  May 23, 2016 12:40:00 PM By James Chen, CMT

GBP/USD has been confined in a trading range between its 200-day moving average to the upside and 50-day moving average to the downside for the past month as the currency pair has been seeking direction ahead of a few major events next month. The fact that price has remained below its 200-day moving average, however, continues to underscore the overall bearish trend that has persistently defined GBP/USD. With exactly one month left to go before [...] Continue Reading


Crude eases ahead of $50 hurdle

Updated -  May 23, 2016 7:30:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

After another typically volatile 5-day period, both oil contracts ended higher for a second straight week. On Friday however, oil prices fell and they have extended their declines at the start of this week. A combination of factors had helped to support oil prices over the past couple of weeks, chief among them being the unscheduled production outages in places like Canada and Nigeria. What’s more, demand for crude products in the US remained [...] Continue Reading


FX Analysis and Technical Outlook

Updated -  May 20, 2016 1:30:00 PM By James Chen, CMT

Fed-Fueled Rollercoaster Continues In the midst of the G7 meetings of finance ministers and central bankers beginning in Japan, this week in foreign exchange was largely focused on the anticipation of, and then reaction to, the Federal Reserve’s latest public communications. The minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting were released in the middle of the week, and the results represented yet another dizzying turn in what has become a Fed-fueled rollercoaster ride for the financial [...] Continue Reading


Stocks and oil regain poise as fears over hawkish Fed subside

Updated -  May 20, 2016 8:00:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

European stock indices have enjoyed a short-covering bounce that began late in the day on Thursday when Wall Street shares managed to erase most of their earlier declines. At midday in London, the UK’s FTSE 100 was up 1.2% and Germany’s DAX was 0.7% higher. Sentiment had turned sour in mid-week following the publication of the FOMC’s surprisingly hawkish April meeting minutes as traders fretted about the economic impact of a potentially earlier-than-expected interest [...] Continue Reading


USD/CAD extends breakout on stronger US dollar, weaker crude oil

Updated -  May 19, 2016 1:50:00 PM By James Chen, CMT

With the US dollar mostly maintaining its FOMC-driven surge and crude oil moderately weakened on Thursday morning, USD/CAD extended Wednesday’s strong breakout above major prior resistance at the key 1.3000 psychological level. For Fed-watchers, Wednesday’s release of minutes from April’s FOMC meeting raised the likelihood of another interest rate hike in June, as FOMC members asserted that a June hike would be likely if economic data continued to improve as expected. This clearly hawkish leaning, [...] Continue Reading


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