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Market Mythbusting: The “Strong” Correlation between USD and US Stocks

Updated -  Mar 31, 2015 2:40:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

“There’s no place like home. There’s no place like home. There’s no place like home.” Dorothy, “The Wizard of Oz” At the deus ex machina conclusion of the 1939 movie The Wizard of Oz, the protagonist Dorothy learns that her magical silver shoes will take her wherever she wants to go as long as she repeats her destination three times. In many regards, it seems like some traders think they have their own version [...] Continue Reading


Updated -  Mar 31, 2015 11:53:04 AM By Neal Gilbert

The first half of North American trade has been a mixed bag of tricks for traders so far as usual correlations aren’t behaving so well. While the EUR/USD has fallen lower on renewed concerns about Greece, but the typically correlated GBP/USD made a valiant run above the 1.48 level that it has been straddling so far this week. The USD/JPY also continues to hover near 120 even though US stock markets are generally down on [...] Continue Reading

EM Rundown: TRYing to Get the Lights Back On in Turkey

Updated -  Mar 31, 2015 8:45:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

It’s been a relatively quiet start to what could be a very interesting week in the FX market. While many traders are already looking ahead to a long holiday weekend, there is one big fly in the Easter Ham ointment: Friday’s non-farm payroll report. Major European banks and even the US stock market will be closed on Friday, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics will still release its marquee employment report, so traders are still [...] Continue Reading

FTSE 100 shrugs off UK “good news" story

Updated -  Mar 31, 2015 8:20:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

The UK economy did even better than thought last year, with GDP rising to 3% from an initial estimate of 2.7%. Interestingly, the overall economy managed to do well even though business investment fell by -0.9% (this revised up from an initial reading of -1.4%). The good news didn’t end there. The UK economy was given a boost by a narrowing of the trade deficit, which narrowed to GBP 6 bn in Q4 from [...] Continue Reading

China roundup: Beijing dips deeper into its policy toolkit

Updated -  Mar 31, 2015 12:29:55 AM By Chris Tedder

It has been a very eventful month in China as Beijing dips even deeper into its policy toolkit as economic data continues to deteriorate. The economy is under threat from soft domestic demand and a general slowdown in economic activity, particularly in the housing market. This has resulted in cuts to interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio, but these moves haven’t had much of an impact on the real economy, at least according to [...] Continue Reading

NZDUSD bolstered by strong confidence data

Updated -  Mar 30, 2015 10:23:02 PM By Chris Tedder

Business confidence in NZ has risen to its highest level since July, according to ANZ. Its Business Confidence Index jumped for the second month in a row, touching 35.8 (prior 34.4). In fact, ANZ was very pleased with the report, noting that all signs point towards broad-based growth. There’s more NZ data and some Chinese economic numbers that may influence the kiwi later in the week. From China, we’re expecting both official and unofficial [...] Continue Reading

WTI: To 50, Then Bust?

Updated -  Mar 30, 2015 4:27:58 PM By Neal Gilbert

The North American trading session has simply been a celebration of US domination as the USD has returned to the ‘King Dollar’ throne (at least for a day) and US equity markets had one of their best days in recent weeks. In addition, commodities like gold and oil declined and are threatening to fall even further if certain dynamics play out, but more on that in a minute. Helping the US-centric celebration were data releases [...] Continue Reading

March Month-End Model Points to Possible USD Buying

Updated -  Mar 30, 2015 2:10:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

Background: Traders often refer the impact of ‘month end flows’ on different currency pairs during the last few days of the month. In essence, these money ‘flows’ are caused by global fund managers and investors rebalancing their currency exposure based on market movements over the last month. For example, if the value of one country’s equity and bond markets increases, these fund managers typically look to sell or hedge their now-elevated exposure to that country’s [...] Continue Reading

USDJPY: Temporarily Topped Out?

Updated -  Mar 30, 2015 11:10:55 AM By Neal Gilbert

The week has started out with a lot of USD strength as a complicated set of influences are converging simultaneously in global markets. Not only do we have the month end flows to contend with, but this is also jobs week in the US, and there is a holiday on Friday (Good Friday) that is being observed by virtually the entire developed world outside of the Bureau of Labor Statistics who has decided to release [...] Continue Reading

AUD starts the week on a sour note

Updated -  Mar 29, 2015 10:58:40 PM By Chris Tedder

Asia’s main commodity currencies are under pressure once more, with both AUDUSD and NZDUSD breaking important short-term support zones. This time around the sell-off is the result of tumbling commodity prices, with iron ore, Australia’s number one export, falling 4% at the end of last week to a six year low. Some producers are calling for a production cap to help stabilise prices. The ASX 200 also couldn’t escape the carnage with the index falling [...] Continue Reading

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) in Canada and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) in Hong Kong. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.


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