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Live Updates

Another big day for AUD and NZD

Updated -  Aug 20, 2014 12:28:54 AM By Chris Tedder

It has been another bad day for the NZ dollar as the market continues to turn against the once highflying commodity currency. Falling commodity prices and deteriorating growth and inflation outlooks have hit the kiwi hard. On Wednesday, NZDUSD fell below 0.8400 for the first time since March. Admittedly, some of the weakness in NZDUSD was due to widespread USD strength on the back of strong US economic data, but recent weak NZ PPI data, [...] Continue Reading

Japan’s exports are back in the black; AUDJPY is looking top-heavy

Updated -  Aug 19, 2014 9:14:15 PM By Chris Tedder

Japan trade deficit unexpectedly widened in July after imports rose more than expected. The trade balance fell to -964bn yen from a revised deficit of 823.2bn, missing an expected shrinking of the deficit to 713.9bn. The report highlights the importance of looking beyond the headline figures. A 2.3% y/y jump in imports would suggest at first glance that business spending is stronger than expected, but that may not be the case. The unexpected jump [...] Continue Reading

WTI: Could Oil Hit its H&S Target at 90.00?

Updated -  Aug 19, 2014 2:10:00 PM By Matt Weller

Three weeks ago, we highlighted a developing Head-and-Shoulders pattern on WTI, suggesting that a break below the pattern’s neckline at 99.00 could open the door for a drop below 95.00 (see “WTI Stands for ‘Why The Impotence?’” below for more). In retrospect, that call has proven far too conservative, as oil prices are at a new 7-month low under 93.00, down over $4 in the last 24 hours. A big factor behind this drop has [...] Continue Reading

EURCHF Pressing 20-Month Lows, But 1.20 Floor Remains Firm

Updated -  Aug 19, 2014 8:40:00 AM By Matt Weller

Volatility in EURCHF has been extremely compressed over the past few years, so we wouldn’t have blamed any traders for avoiding opening this note altogether. For those who have made it this far though, the recent price action is presenting a rare trading opportunity in the typically quiet pair. At the end of last week, EURCHF ticked down below the 1.2100 handle for the first time since January 2013. The primary catalyst for this [...] Continue Reading

FTSE 100 on a roll as CPI is weaker than expected

Updated -  Aug 19, 2014 7:10:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

The pound may be in the doldrums after the surprise drop in the CPI rate for July, but the FTSE is still riding its recent wave higher. It broke above its 50 and 100-day sma earlier and continues to extend gains as we move towards the UK lunchtime. The decline in annual CPI to 1.6% from 1.9% was mostly down to a decline in clothing prices, as summer sales hit the high street. However, [...] Continue Reading

The RBA maintains its cautions outlook for the economy

Updated -  Aug 19, 2014 12:51:33 AM By Chris Tedder

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has reiterated that the most prudent course is likely a period of stability in interest rates. At its monetary policy meeting earlier this month the bank held the cash rate at a record low 2.5% for the twelfth straight month. The minutes suggest that the tone of the most recent meeting matches those of prior policy meetings. The bank is clearly concerned about the uncertain outlook for growth [...] Continue Reading

One to watch: NZDUSD takes a hit but all is not lost

Updated -  Aug 18, 2014 8:08:54 PM By Chris Tedder

The NZ dollar fell on the back of some disappointing producer prices data out of New Zealand. PPI Output and PPI Input fell 0.5% q/q and 1.0% q/q respectively in Q2. The soft numbers were largely the result of weak dairy prices and don’t bode well for inflation going forward, thus investors responded by selling the kiwi. NZDUSD plummeted on the back of NZ’s PPI figures, but all is not lost for the commodity [...] Continue Reading


EM Rundown: Traders Not Enthused by Russia-Ukraine Talks

Updated -  Aug 18, 2014 2:15:00 PM By Matt Weller

Markets have officially entered the dog days of summer, with volatility plumbing historical lows in both the G10 and emerging markets, and market movement could remain subdued until traders return from their summer vacations for the start of September. That said, there are a few reasonably impactful data releases on tap from the G10 this week, whereas geopolitical developments continue to keep EM FX traders on their toes. The flashpoint for geopolitical developments has [...] Continue Reading

EURUSD: Coiling for a Potential Breakout This Week

Updated -  Aug 18, 2014 9:00:00 AM By Matt Weller

For over two weeks now, EURUSD has frustrated both bears and bulls. After shedding 300 pips in July, the pair has now been contained to just a 110-pip range for over half of August. The recent price action has been particularly exasperating, but a developing technical pattern suggests that we may see a breakout and the return of volatility this week. Since the minor high formed on August 1st, EURUSD has been putting in consistently [...] Continue Reading

German bonds boost the Dax’s style

Updated -  Aug 18, 2014 8:50:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

European equities are higher today on the back of some general themes that are helping to sustain risk sentiment: 1, News that Russia and Ukraine are trying to reach a ceasefire agreement. 2, EU monetary support for European exporters hit by the recent Russian sanctions. 3, Low bond yields in Europe, helping to sustain demand for equities. The development in the Russia/ Ukraine crisis is encouraging; however this is a very [...] Continue Reading

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) in Canada and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) in Hong Kong. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.


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