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Live Updates

NFP Instant Reaction: Not Perfect, but Will it be Good Enough for Fed?

Updated -  Mar 6, 2015 9:00:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

After last month’s “perfect” NFP report, hopes were high heading into the United States’ marquee labor market release. As if for dramatic effect, the report was delayed by around a minute, and there were some mixed signals to digest when it did come out, but the big takeaway is that the US labor market recovery remains on track and the possibility of a June rate hike by the Federal Reserve remains definitively on the [...] Continue Reading

EURUSD: is parity back on the cards?

Updated -  Mar 6, 2015 7:40:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

It’s been another day of records for the EUR, with EURUSD falling below 1.10 to a fresh 11-year low of 1.0930 so far. The chances of it breaking to another multi-year low before the end of the day are also high as we wait for payrolls data later on Friday. Only NFP can save EUR now… STOP PRESS: to make NFP Friday even more complicated than usual, there could be a delay to [...] Continue Reading

Gold: USD conceals metal’s strength

Updated -  Mar 6, 2015 7:00:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

Ahead of the US monthly jobs report, gold is hovering just above the $1190 handle and threatening to break further lower. The precious metal is now down for a fifth consecutive session and is thus set to close lower for the week. Or will it? This will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the NFP report. As my colleagues in the US pointed out in their NFP preview, the major labour market indicators [...] Continue Reading

AUDCAD: parity is proving a difficult nut to crack

Updated -  Mar 5, 2015 10:53:23 PM By Chris Tedder

The Australian dollar has been regaining some of its lost ground in Asia, with AUDUSD currently testing a resistance zone around 0.7800. Meanwhile, AUDCAD has done an about-face around its 100-day SMA. The pair has been on the back foot recently due to a relatively upbeat policy meeting at the Bank of Canada and some stronger than expected economic data (the Canadian economy grew 0.3% last quarter, beating an expected growth rate of 0.2%). Earlier [...] Continue Reading

RBNZ derails NZDJPY’s rally

Updated -  Mar 5, 2015 6:38:32 PM By Chris Tedder

As my colleague Matthew Weller pointed out here, the RBNZ said it was looking into ways to tighten rules around lending for residential property investors by targeting rental properties. The bank is looking at making property investment a class of its own, as opposed to the current regime that doesn’t differentiate between owner-occupiers and rental properties. Also, the definition of ‘investor’ appears to be under scrutiny, with the RBNZ dumping the prior criteria [...] Continue Reading

Research Note: Februrary NFP Prep

Updated -  Mar 5, 2015 3:00:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT & Neal Gilbert

By: Matt Weller, CMT, Senior Technical Analyst The February Non-Farm Payroll report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 ET (13:30 GMT), with expectations centered on a headline reading of 241k. My model suggests that the report could print a tick below these expectations,with leading indicators suggesting a February headline NFP reading of 220K. The model has been historically reliable, showing a correlation coefficient of .90 with the unrevised NFP headline figure dating back to 2001 [...] Continue Reading

ECB: Draghin the EUR lower…

Updated -  Mar 5, 2015 11:30:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

Finally, a good news story for Mario Draghi. A fairly uneventful ECB meeting, apart from one irate local journalist in Nicosia, saw Draghi and co. announce no new monetary measures, instead the focus was on the details of the QE programme, as we had expected. But Draghi also received a boost from the latest round of ECB staff forecasts. The key points from this month’s press conference: The interesting things to note from [...] Continue Reading

USD Head and Shoulders above AUD

Updated -  Mar 5, 2015 11:20:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

Today’s focus has rightly been on the ECB and the euro. But that’s not to say the non-EU markets have been dull. The US dollar, for one, has rallied strongly against most major currencies while the Kiwi has slumped. And now the AUD/USD looks like it may be rolling over too despite the RBA’s decision not to cut interest rates and some mixed-bag Australian data this week. Granted, we don’t have any more Australian [...] Continue Reading

NZDUSD: Did the RBNZ Just Cap the Kiwi?

Updated -  Mar 5, 2015 8:45:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

Despite the broad-based strength in the US Dollar, the New Zealand dollar has managed to hold its own against the world’s reserve currency over the last few weeks. Unfortunately for kiwi bulls, that resilience may finally be coming to an end on the back of news that the RBNZ is mulling new rules to cut down on excessive property investment. Similar to its neighbor across the Tasman Sea, New Zealand is experiencing an awkward [...] Continue Reading

TRY-ing to break free…

Updated -  Mar 5, 2015 7:40:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

The Turkish lira has fallen to another record low versus the USD on Thursday as President Erdogan and other government officials attempt to put pressure on the Turkish central bank to cut interest rates, and reverse last year’s hikes. Playing a dangerous political game: The market’s dislike of the TRY right now is two-fold: firstly lower interest rates tend to weaken a currency; secondly, the government is calling for lower interest rates at [...] Continue Reading

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) in Canada and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) in Hong Kong. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.


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