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Live Updates

GBPJPY: stuck between a rock and a hard place

Updated -  Aug 20, 2014 8:57:34 PM By Chris Tedder

The GBP was bolstered overnight by a strong signal from the BoJ that we’re nearing the new era of tighter monetary policy. In the words of my colleague Kathleen Books, there was mutiny at the BOE (read her full report here). Two members of the MPC have voted to go against their Governor by voting for a rate hike already. However, soft inflation expectations have put a damper on the pound’s rally. Nonetheless, [...] Continue Reading

Fed Minutes: Hawkish Shift Drives Buck to New Highs

Updated -  Aug 20, 2014 2:25:00 PM By Matt Weller

Traders just received the minutes from the most recent meeting of the Federal Reserve policy committee, and the big takeaway is that the FOMC is shifting in favor of normalizing monetary policy sooner than many traders were expecting. Though the vote in favor of last month’s policy statement was a relatively tame 9-1 decision, with hardcore hawk Charles Plosser as the only dissenter, the recently released minutes showed more discord within the committee than the [...] Continue Reading

EURUSD Hits an 11-Month Low – Can the Fed Minutes Stem the Bleeding?

Updated -  Aug 20, 2014 8:45:00 AM By Matt Weller

US traders are filtering into their desks this hump day to see some broad bullish price action for their home currency. With the exception of the pound, which has been supported by a hawkish “mutiny” in the most recent BOE minutes, all major currencies are falling against the US dollar. As a few examples, USDJPY has broken out to a new 4-month high, USDCAD is pressing its highest level in 3 months, and NZDUSD [...] Continue Reading

USDJPY: navigating Jackson Hole risk

Updated -  Aug 20, 2014 8:40:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

The Jackson Hole conference of central bankers may not be everyone’s idea of a barrel of laughs, but it can be big news for your portfolio. In the past, central bankers have used these speeches to announce changes in monetary policy; this is where Ben Bernanke first announced the prospect of QE. As we lead up to today’s meeting expectations are high that Janet Yellen will announce something equally juicy, especially as we are less [...] Continue Reading

Mutiny at the Bank of England

Updated -  Aug 20, 2014 6:15:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

The hawks at the Bank of England have started to spread their wings. At last two members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have broken ranks with the Governor for the first time since 2011. The longest period of unity in the MPC’s history has been shattered, now things at the BOE will start to get interesting. The fact that two members have voted for a rate hike already is significant for a few [...] Continue Reading

Another big day for AUD and NZD

Updated -  Aug 20, 2014 12:28:54 AM By Chris Tedder

It has been another bad day for the NZ dollar as the market continues to turn against the once highflying commodity currency. Falling commodity prices and deteriorating growth and inflation outlooks have hit the kiwi hard. On Wednesday, NZDUSD fell below 0.8400 for the first time since March. Admittedly, some of the weakness in NZDUSD was due to widespread USD strength on the back of strong US economic data, but recent weak NZ PPI data, [...] Continue Reading

Japan’s exports are back in the black; AUDJPY is looking top-heavy

Updated -  Aug 19, 2014 9:14:15 PM By Chris Tedder

Japan trade deficit unexpectedly widened in July after imports rose more than expected. The trade balance fell to -964bn yen from a revised deficit of 823.2bn, missing an expected shrinking of the deficit to 713.9bn. The report highlights the importance of looking beyond the headline figures. A 2.3% y/y jump in imports would suggest at first glance that business spending is stronger than expected, but that may not be the case. The unexpected jump [...] Continue Reading

WTI: Could Oil Hit its H&S Target at 90.00?

Updated -  Aug 19, 2014 2:10:00 PM By Matt Weller

Three weeks ago, we highlighted a developing Head-and-Shoulders pattern on WTI, suggesting that a break below the pattern’s neckline at 99.00 could open the door for a drop below 95.00 (see “WTI Stands for ‘Why The Impotence?’” below for more). In retrospect, that call has proven far too conservative, as oil prices are at a new 7-month low under 93.00, down over $4 in the last 24 hours. A big factor behind this drop has [...] Continue Reading

EURCHF Pressing 20-Month Lows, But 1.20 Floor Remains Firm

Updated -  Aug 19, 2014 8:40:00 AM By Matt Weller

Volatility in EURCHF has been extremely compressed over the past few years, so we wouldn’t have blamed any traders for avoiding opening this note altogether. For those who have made it this far though, the recent price action is presenting a rare trading opportunity in the typically quiet pair. At the end of last week, EURCHF ticked down below the 1.2100 handle for the first time since January 2013. The primary catalyst for this [...] Continue Reading

FTSE 100 on a roll as CPI is weaker than expected

Updated -  Aug 19, 2014 7:10:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

The pound may be in the doldrums after the surprise drop in the CPI rate for July, but the FTSE is still riding its recent wave higher. It broke above its 50 and 100-day sma earlier and continues to extend gains as we move towards the UK lunchtime. The decline in annual CPI to 1.6% from 1.9% was mostly down to a decline in clothing prices, as summer sales hit the high street. However, [...] Continue Reading

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) in Canada and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) in Hong Kong. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.


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