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Fed Instant Reaction: “Considerable” Confusion

Updated -  Dec 17, 2014 3:00:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

In our Fed preview earlier this morning, we argued that the market’s reaction to today’s Federal Reserve statement could be a binary outcome dependent on just two words: considerable time (see “Fed Up with ‘Considerable Time’” for more). As it turned out, the Fed managed to avoid this binary outcome by moving (NOT removing) the “considerable time” pledge within the statement itself. Seemingly in attempt to satisfy both hawks and doves, the new statement [...] Continue Reading

Fed Up with “Considerable Time”?

Updated -  Dec 17, 2014 10:20:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

As strange as it sounds, the tone of trade for the rest of the week, and perhaps even the rest of the year, could hinge on just two words. The Federal Reserve will release its monetary policy statement and summary of economic projections at 2:00pm ET (19:00 GMT), followed by the press conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen at 2:30pm ET (19:30 GMT), and traders will be hyper-focused on whether the central bank chooses to [...] Continue Reading

FTSE 100: Is the oil price drop good for stocks?

Updated -  Dec 17, 2014 9:40:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

It’s been a bad first half of the day for European indices, with a sea of red across all European markets. The FTSE 100 has managed to fare the best, it is currently down 0.8%, which compares with a 1.75% fall for the FTSE MIB in Italy and a 1.14% decline for the Eurostoxx index. Interestingly, the drop has been across the board, with traditionally defensive sectors, which should do well during times of [...] Continue Reading

DJIA: potential for stocks to bounce back, FOMC eyed

Updated -  Dec 17, 2014 8:20:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

By the end of today’s session we may have a good idea in terms of whether the so-called “Santa Claus Rally” is still on for stocks. Not only do the major indices look oversold from a technical point of view, there is also the potential for the Federal Reserve to deliver a surprisingly dovish statement at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting this evening. Although the employment situation is continuing to improve, there is a [...] Continue Reading

AUDJPY: the sell-off continues

Updated -  Dec 16, 2014 11:55:26 PM By Chris Tedder

A couple of weeks ago we postulated whether this was the end for AUDJPY, and sure enough the pair has taken a beating lately. A strong yen and a massive sell-off in the Australian dollar have completely derailed AUDJPY. The pair has fallen around 7% since the end of November, with the Norwegian Krone the only currency to beat the Australian dollar for the tile of worst performing G10 currency against the yen. The [...] Continue Reading

Tags: AUD, JPY

It has been a busy week for AUD, yet AUDUSD still remains glued to 0.8200

Updated -  Dec 16, 2014 8:22:51 PM By Chris Tedder

It has been an eventful week for the Australian dollar, with important economic data from both Australia and China, minutes from the RBA’s latest meeting and Treasurer Hockey released the government’s mid-year economic and fiscal outlook (MYEFO). These were largely overshadowed by the horrible events that unfolded in Sydney earlier in the week. On Monday, the government released its MYEFO which showed plunging commodity prices, a soft labour market and delays in passing budget cuts [...] Continue Reading


Yen Technical Outlook: More Yen Selling On Tap for 2015?

Updated -  Dec 16, 2014 2:50:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

As we look back at 2014, one of the biggest forex trading themes of the year was the same as 2013: the Japanese yen consolidated for most of the year before falling sharply into the end of the year. Now, traders are once again wondering whether the recent weakness in yen is here to stay or whether Japan’s currency is due for another dull sideways period in 2015. To tackle that question, we look at [...] Continue Reading

Crude oil could be near the bottom

Updated -  Dec 16, 2014 1:00:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

The plunging crude oil prices have been dominating the headlines. It is not just the price collapse itself, but also the wider implications that this has had that have garnered a lot of attention. Among other things, for example, crude’s collapse has helped to fuel a currency crisis in Russia while also weighing heavily on currencies of other oil producing nations such as Canada and Norway. What’s more, it has raised deflation risks across the [...] Continue Reading

USDRUB: So This is What a Currency Collapse Looks Like

Updated -  Dec 16, 2014 8:50:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

There’s an apocryphal story about the famous 20th century bank robber Willie Sutton that, when asked why he robbed banks, he replied, “Because that’s where the money is.” Sutton himself has denied uttering the quote, but scientists have nonetheless dubbed the strategy of considering the obvious explanation first as “Sutton’s Law.” When it comes to the current crisis in the Russian ruble, Sutton’s Law provides the best explanation to the question, “Why is the ruble [...] Continue Reading

GBP/USD testing 6-month old bearish trend despite weaker inflation figures

Updated -  Dec 16, 2014 7:30:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

The pound has rallied against the dollar despite news inflation has fallen to a 12-year low in the UK. Although the fall in the headline CPI to just 1% in November from 1.3% in October may not be a big surprise because of the recent drop in oil prices, the fact that core CPI has also unexpectedly fallen sharply – to 1.2% from 1.5% – may be a sign for concern. Nevertheless, the lower inflation [...] Continue Reading

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) in Canada and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) in Hong Kong. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.


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