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EURCHF: will the SNB defend the 1.20 peg?

Updated -  Aug 27, 2014 10:05:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

Since the Swiss National Bank (SNB) imposed its peg in EUR/CHF, this cross has only traded below 1.20 a handful of times, and each time it has bounced off this important level of support. In the three years that the peg has been in place, the market hasn’t tested the SNB’s resolve with any gusto. The market has seemed to accept that you don’t push EUR/CHF below 1.20, otherwise the SNB will act and you [...] Continue Reading

USDCAD Breaks Below Bullish Trend Line – Now Eyeing August Lows at 1.0860

Updated -  Aug 27, 2014 8:20:00 AM By Matt Weller

We’ve been tracking the USDCAD consistently over the last two weeks as the pair has struggled to break above key resistance at 1.0985 (see “USDCAD Pressing Critical 1.0985 Barrier Ahead of US Data” and “USDCAD: Short-Term Double Top Activated on Drop Below 1.0900” below for more). In all, bears were able to repel four separate rallies into that barrier, and rates finally dropped below 7-week bullish trend line support in today’s Asian session. From a [...] Continue Reading

China roundup: more red flags from the property market

Updated -  Aug 27, 2014 2:20:08 AM By Chris Tedder

More warning signs from China’s property market have kept investors on their toes this month. Economic data broadly improved but property data continues to point a slowdown in the still overheated real estate sector. While we can brush off slight weakness in some economy data, China’s cooling property market is arguably the biggest threat to global growth in the near-term. Construction and real estate sectors account for around 15% of GDP and are the [...] Continue Reading

AUD awaits Australia’s Q2 CAPEX data

Updated -  Aug 26, 2014 8:51:27 PM By Chris Tedder

It’s been a pretty quiet week for the Australian dollar due to a lack of local market moving events or headline economic data. The market’s attention has been offshore, with investors weighing the prospect of more supportive monetary policy action from Japan and Europe against a less dovish Fed. Nonetheless, the release of Q2’s private capital expenditure figures could prove to be a big deal for the Australian dollar. In that respect, it’s very [...] Continue Reading

AUDNZD: Wallaby-Kiwi Battle Line Drawn at 1.1200

Updated -  Aug 26, 2014 2:00:00 PM By Matt Weller

As my colleague Chris Tedder noted on Monday and earlier today, the New Zealand dollar’s had a tough start to the week. While some traders (including yours truly) were optimistic that the beleaguered currency may bounce back this week, the onslaught of negative economic data, not to mention the recent political turmoil ahead of next month’s elections, has driven the kiwi to a new 6-month low against the US dollar. While the [...] Continue Reading

FX: is volatility about to come back to the FX market?

Updated -  Aug 26, 2014 10:50:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

FX volatility has fallen to record lows in recent months, which is one reason why trading conditions have been particularly boring, but could this be about to change? Listening to some of the speeches from Jackson Hole at the weekend, the annual conference of central bankers, monetary policy could be about to move down divergent paths in the coming months, and there could be implications for the FX market. On the one side you [...] Continue Reading

Will The S&P 500 Fall Victim to the Y2K Bug?

Updated -  Aug 26, 2014 9:20:00 AM By Matt Weller

Nearly 15 years ago, stock markets were the only topic of conversation in the US. The widely-followed S&P 500 index of large US companies was on its way to trade above 1500, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ index had surged to above 5,000. In retrospect, equity valuations were clearly in an unsustainable bubble, but euphoria and greed trumped all other considerations as stocks continued to trade higher. Just yesterday the S&P500 broke to an all-time high [...] Continue Reading

FX focus: dollar hesitates ahead of key resistance

Updated -  Aug 26, 2014 7:30:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

The dollar is on everyone’s mind today, after a stunning 3.5% rally since July, the dollar index is taking a breather ahead of key resistance at 82.67 – the high from September 6th. In the short term, we wouldn’t be surprised if we get below this level as the dollar index looks a little over-extended to the upside, we still think that any pullback will be short lived. Key support levels include: However, last [...] Continue Reading

The NZ dollar is hit again!

Updated -  Aug 25, 2014 9:19:10 PM By Chris Tedder

It seems the NZ dollar cannot catch a break, with the commodity currency falling victim to another set of disappointing economic data out of NZ. This time around it was trade figures which sparked a sell-off in the NZD. NZ’s July trade balance dropped to -692m from a revised 242m, missing an expected deficit of 475m. Exports fell 3.3% y/y to NZD3.7bn, which was more than the market was expecting (exp. 3.98bn). Exports are [...] Continue Reading


EM Rundown: TRYing to Divine the CBRT’s Next Move

Updated -  Aug 25, 2014 2:40:00 PM By Matt Weller

The dog days of summer of winding down once again, though volatility in the forex market may not pick up until next week’s start of September data deluge. In the G10 FX space, most traders will be focused on US Durable Goods orders (Tuesday) and Eurozone CPI data (Friday), but there are three potentially market-moving announcements in the more widely-traded EM currencies as well. USDZAR: Will Q2 GDP Recover? After collapsing in the wake of [...] Continue Reading

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) in Canada and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) in Hong Kong. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.


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