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May Month-End Model Hints at Dollar Weakness Heading into the Weekend

Updated -  May 29, 2015 7:25:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

Background: Traders often refer the impact of ‘month end flows’ on different currency pairs during the last few days of the month. In essence, these money ‘flows’ are caused by global fund managers and investors rebalancing their currency exposure based on market movements over the last month. For example, if the value of one country’s equity and bond markets increases, these fund managers typically look to sell or hedge their now-elevated exposure to that country’s [...] Continue Reading

DAX: Greece deal hopes, bullish trend still intact

Updated -  May 29, 2015 7:10:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

European stocks opened the day deep in the red mainly due to the on-going uncertainty over Greece and the Chinese stock market turmoil, before bouncing off their worst levels as we approached mid-day. Yesterday, the IMF chief Lagarde had admitted that Greece exiting from euro zone was ‘a potential’, and that “It’s very unlikely that we will reach a comprehensive solution in the next few days.” There are serious question marks over Athens’ ability to [...] Continue Reading

NZDJPY is wounded and falling

Updated -  May 28, 2015 11:06:53 PM By Chris Tedder

Earlier in the Asia session Japan released its consumer price numbers for April. The data printed slightly above expectations, with core-CPI rising 0.3% y/y and core-core-CPI jumping 0.4% y/y (expected 0.3%) last month, slightly better than the prior month’s figures which showed adjusted increases of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Also, Japanese industrial production jumped 1.0% in April, after falling 0.8% in the prior month. However, these numbers aren’t game changing enough to materially impact the [...] Continue Reading

Crude stocks drop for 4th week

Updated -  May 28, 2015 1:50:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

WTI crude oil managed to bounce off its worst levels following the publication of the latest crude stockpiles report from the US Energy Information Admiration (EIA), but remained in the red and was on course to end lower for a fifth day. Prior to the release of the EIA report, traders were evidently expecting to see a “bad” number because the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) data last night had indicated that inventories had climbed by [...] Continue Reading

Gold Holding Make-or-Break Level at 1180…So Far

Updated -  May 28, 2015 1:40:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

Commodity bulls have had a rough couple of weeks across the board, with the broad CRB commodity index falling over 5% from the mid-May peak. The weakness has been widespread, with everything from industrial metals to agricultural commodities to oil all falling in tandem (see my colleague Fawad Razaqzada’s note from earlier today for more on oil). Though it’s also fallen with its commodity brothers, gold remains broadly rangebound around the 1200 level. Last week, [...] Continue Reading

Stocks: why the FTSE 100 could be a lead indicator

Updated -  May 28, 2015 10:10:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

There has been much market speculation of late that the global stock market rally could be running out of steam and stocks may be about to head lower. In fairness, stocks have had a fantastic run; the S&P has been in an uptrend since 2009 and has made record highs. Likewise, the Dax and the FTSE 100 have also reached fresh record territory in recent months, so is it time the markets turned lower?  [...] Continue Reading

NZDUSD Drops to a New 4-Year Low…Look Out Below?

Updated -  May 28, 2015 9:25:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

The return of the “Best House in a Bad Neighborhood” trade has seen the dollar rally strongly over the last three weeks, with the trade-weighted dollar index breaking back above its 50-day MA near 97.00 earlier this week. However, one of the strongest moves toward strength in the greenback has been seen in against the New Zealand dollar, which isn’t even a part in the dollar index. Since peaking at .7750 in mid-April, NZDUSD has [...] Continue Reading

USD/JPY: a warning or two for bulls

Updated -  May 28, 2015 7:00:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

The USD/JPY currency pair may go on to rise to significantly higher levels over time because of the growing disparity between interest rates in the US and Japan. But in the immediate near term, the risks for a potential correction are high given the extent of the recent upsurge. Traders may simply choose to book some profit now following a 5-day rally. This, combined with the potential withdrawal of bids near key resistance levels, may [...] Continue Reading

GBPCAD: Double Top Danger

Updated -  May 27, 2015 2:16:42 PM By Neal Gilbert

Since the conclusion of the election in the UK a couple weeks ago that was anticipated to be a political mess but ended up being a resounding victory for the conservative Tories, the GBP has been on a roll. Coupled with the negative economic results in the US, investors were flocking to the Pound Sterling as the gem of the currency world as the pre-selling before the election got a little ahead of itself. However, [...] Continue Reading

USDCAD Bulls in Control Above 1.2400

Updated -  May 27, 2015 2:00:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

As my colleague Fawad Razaqzada noted earlier today, oil is testing some key support levels around 58.00 (for WTI) and 63.00 (for Brent) ahead of tomorrow’s always-critical EIA oil inventories report. The recent weakness in oil prices has spilled over (no pun intended) into the forex market, where the oil-dependent Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone, and Russian ruble are all falling against the US dollar. With an uneventful Bank of Canada meeting now [...] Continue Reading

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) in Canada and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) in Hong Kong. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.


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