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Live Updates

AUDJPY: Traders YE(ar)N for a Safe Haven

Updated -  Jun 30, 2015 9:10:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

Greece’s debt drama stretched further into its third act today, with optimists still holding out hope that a last-second bailout deal could be cobbled together. Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has already categorically confirmed that Greece won't make its payment today, but there were some hopeful signs from the Mediterranean nation. Despite harsh rhetoric over the weekend, Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker has apparently offered a last-minute solution to Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in exchange [...] Continue Reading


Greece won’t pay... now what?

Updated -  Jun 30, 2015 8:10:00 AM By Kathnleen Brooks

Greece has reached D-day, they literally will default (or fall into arrears, in IMF parlance) if they don’t pay up some EUR 1.6 bn by midnight Athens time tonight. There have been various rumours all morning that another last minute deal may be on the table, but news of this deal seems to have fizzled out, and even Angela Merkel said that the only offer that she knows from Greece is from last Friday. This [...] Continue Reading


Crude stages short-covering rally as Iran deadline passes

Updated -  Jun 30, 2015 7:25:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

Today was supposed to be the deadline for Iran and the P5+1 to reach a final agreement that would have limited Tehran’s nuclear programme in return for lifting its sanctions. However, it doesn’t appear as though anything will be agreed upon in time for the deadline, though the meetings are likely to continue for several more days nonetheless. Apparently there are several issues that stand in the way of an agreement, including the rights of [...] Continue Reading


NZDUSD: are the bloated bears full yet?

Updated -  Jun 29, 2015 11:19:59 PM By Chris Tedder

It has been another eventful day for the NZ dollar as traders found another reason to shed the commodity currency. This time around the NZ dollar is being mauled by bears due to a significant drop in business confidence in June. The ANZ Business Confidence Index dropped into negative territory for the first time since March 2011 which was the same month that the official cash rate in NZ was sent back to a record [...] Continue Reading


EM Rundown: Which EM Currencies are Most Vulnerable to a Grexit?

Updated -  Jun 29, 2015 3:40:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

As most FX traders know by now, the negotiations over Greece’s debt took a sharp turn for the worse over the weekend, culminating in the Greek government’s decision to call a public referendum on its creditors’ proposal on this coming Sunday. Early opinion polls suggest that the Greek populace is leaning toward voting “yes” (i.e. accepting the proposals in order to secure more bailout funds), but emerging market FX traders are likely to remain on [...] Continue Reading


June Month-End Dollar Selling May be Dwarfed by Greek Drama

Updated -  Jun 29, 2015 1:50:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

Background: Traders often refer the impact of ‘month end flows’ on different currency pairs during the last few days of the month. In essence, these money ‘flows’ are caused by global fund managers and investors rebalancing their currency exposure based on market movements over the last month. For example, if the value of one country’s equity and bond markets increases, these fund managers typically look to sell or hedge their now-elevated exposure to that country’s [...] Continue Reading


EUR/JPY: Mind the gap

Updated -  Jun 29, 2015 12:20:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

On Wednesday of last week, we published a mostly technical piece on the EUR/JPY. As you may recall, we noted that the rally had stalled around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the downswing from the December peak at 140.70. The 61.8% Fibonacci level represents a deep retracement, which together with the slowdown in the bullish trend, led us to think that the EUR/JPY would probably break out from its bullish channel and that [...] Continue Reading


Greek Pin Action: Will GBP Take on CHF’s Safe Haven Mantle?

Updated -  Jun 29, 2015 10:55:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

As Greece’s debt negotiations deteriorated this weekend, traders piled in to buy the “safe-haven” Swiss franc. In turn, the rapid appreciation in the value of the franc prompted the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to intervene in the FX market to stabilize the gains in its currency. In explaining the move, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan stated, We have always said that we are active in the foreign exchange market if necessary…[a] situation like we experienced over [...] Continue Reading


Eurozone: is deflation back?

Updated -  Jun 29, 2015 9:55:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

Only a few weeks ago it looked like the spectre of deflation had finally lifted from the Eurozone. However, today’s German CPI figures throw that into doubt. EU harmonised data for June shows that CPI fell 0.2% on the month, which pushed the annual rate down to 0.1% from 0.7% in May. So, is this just a pause in the uptrend for CPI, or is the trend over before it even began? To answer [...] Continue Reading


DAX: stocks vulnerable as Greece flirts with default

Updated -  Jun 29, 2015 6:50:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

Risk was totally off the menu first thing this morning. The European stock markets plunged as the situation in Greece deteriorated at the weekend after the government rejected the latest bailout offer from its international creditors, called for a referendum and subsequently imposed capital controls. But the major European indices have since bounced off their lows as traders who had sold into last week’s rally, took some profit on their positions near key technical levels. [...] Continue Reading


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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

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