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FX Analysis and Technical Outlook

Updated -  Apr 29, 2016 1:10:00 PM By James Chen, CMT

Unchanging Rates Lead to Changing Markets Three major central bank policy decisions occurred this past week that followed in the footsteps of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision during the previous week. The three were, in chronological order, the US Federal Reserve, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). In summary, every one of these four central banks opted to keep interest rates unchanged. While this was expected for [...] Continue Reading


Stocks extend decline; volatility could spike next week

Updated -  Apr 29, 2016 11:30:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

This week’s inaction from two major central banks, namely the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, has caused the global equity indices – Japan’s Nikkei, in particular – and the US dollar to weaken as the yen and safe haven precious metals soared. On top of this, weakness in US data persisted as fresh data showed the world’s largest economy grew only by 0.5% in the first quarter on an annualised format, which [...] Continue Reading


Dollar resumes slide on weak data, cautious Fed

Updated -  Apr 28, 2016 3:30:00 PM By James Chen, CMT

After the Federal Reserve kept US interest rates unchanged as expected on Wednesday and reiterated its consistently cautious stance with regard to future rate increases, annualized Advance GDP data for Q1 came out on Thursday morning that disappointed already-low prior estimates. In the first quarter of the year, the US economy was estimated to have grown by only an annualized 0.5% against prior expectations of 0.7% growth. Although this is only the first of three [...] Continue Reading


Gold finally set for bullish breakout?

Updated -  Apr 28, 2016 1:10:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

After a sharp BOJ-inspired drop this morning, Western equity markets were able to turn slightly higher in the afternoon. Sentiment was partly boosted by the still-rallying oil prices as well as robust earnings from Facebook which helped to lift the social network to a fresh all-time high. Other commodities also rallied as the dollar sold off on the back of a weaker-than-expected first quarter US GDP estimate. This helped to push expectation about the next [...] Continue Reading


EUR/JPY plunges to approach major support lows after BoJ inaction

Updated -  Apr 28, 2016 11:00:00 AM By James Chen, CMT

Despite last week’s reports that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) was considering potentially more aggressive easing actions in the form of additional stimulus measures, which had led to an immediate drop in the yen and a significant boost for both USD/JPY and EUR/JPY, Japan’s central bank issued its decision on Thursday that it would hold off on any monetary easing. Interest rates remained unchanged and the BoJ was seen as taking the unexpected path of [...] Continue Reading


USD/JPY: What next for the beleaguered pair?

Updated -  Apr 28, 2016 8:10:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

This week’s key central bank meetings have come to pass. The US Federal Reserve, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Japan all decided to leave their monetary policy stances unchanged, so you would have thought that the markets would not have reacted much. Well, in the case of the Fed and the dollar, you would have probably been correct since virtually no one was expecting a rate rise at this week’s [...] Continue Reading


FOMC Recap: A non-event with slightly hawkish undertones

Updated -  Apr 27, 2016 5:10:00 PM By James Chen, CMT

Despite a quick flurry of market activity on Wednesday’s release of the latest FOMC statement, the overall market reaction after the release has been conspicuously muted. This was due to the fact that the statement gave very little in the way of any new direction for US monetary policy. As expected, interest rates were left unchanged. Aside from this, the FOMC reiterated once again that its policy outlook will continue to be dependent upon economic [...] Continue Reading


NZD/JPY in focus as RBNZ and BOJ decide on policy

Updated -  Apr 27, 2016 2:30:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

The focus for much of the week has been on the FOMC statement, which is understandable given the lack of any clear trend for the dollar and especially for the EUR/USD pair. As it has turned out, the Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected but in a surprise move it has removed from its statement the reference to global risks, suggesting it is less concerned about economic and financial developments overseas. The initial reaction [...] Continue Reading


Could the Fed disappoint dovish expectations?

Updated -  Apr 27, 2016 12:20:00 PM By James Chen, CMT

The US dollar has drifted steadily lower in recent days as markets have waited in eager anticipation for the Fed’s monetary policy statement scheduled after its two-day meeting concludes on Wednesday afternoon. As the Fed has become increasingly dovish since its December rate hike, and in recent weeks and months has essentially led financial markets to rule out an April hike through its members’ mostly dovish public comments, the stage has been set for further [...] Continue Reading


Silver: Fed statement could be precious for metals

Updated -  Apr 27, 2016 8:50:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

The Federal Reserve will be in focus at 19:00 BST (14:00 ET) when it will most likely decide to leave interest rates unchanged. The US dollar and other financial markets could nevertheless move sharply depending on the language the FOMC uses in the policy statement to describe the health of the world’s largest economy, inflation outlook and the likely path of future interest rate changes. This will have indirect impact on some commodities which are [...] Continue Reading


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