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Gartley Gently Guiding Gold to $1260 Garrison

Updated -  Aug 22, 2014 2:15:00 PM By Matt Weller

With this week’s big bullish move in the US dollar, it’s not surprising to see commodities like oil and gold have taken a hit. In particular, gold traded down nearly 30 points over the first four days of the week before stabilizing around $1280 today. That said, a developing bullish pattern suggests that gold could find strong support if the selloff extends toward $1260 next week. Since the start of June, gold has carved [...] Continue Reading


Fed watch: Yellen adds fuel to the USD fire

Updated -  Aug 22, 2014 12:20:00 PM By Kathleen Brooks

Chairwoman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, has opened the 2014 Jackson Hole conference of central bankers and the dollar bulls like it. The dollar index is set to close the week at its highest level since September 2013, even though Yellen didn’t drop any hints about what the Fed plans to do once it finishes its tapering programme in October. Instead, the market seems to be jumping on the back of the uncertainty [...] Continue Reading


FX focus: The EUR takes a turn for the worst

Updated -  Aug 22, 2014 9:20:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

The USD was the main driver of the G10 FX market last week as its general uptrend dominated across the board. Although, after such a strong run, the buck is at risk of a couple of set-backs at the start of the new week, as markets digest Fed chair Yellen’s comments from her Jackson Hole speech, we continue to think that any weakness in the dollar could be bought into. One reason why the dollar [...] Continue Reading


CADJPY hits a wall of resistance

Updated -  Aug 21, 2014 9:54:09 PM By Chris Tedder

CADJPY has hit a key resistance zone ahead of some important economic data out of Canada. A break here could renew the bulls’ faith in the pair, while a failure to push through may result in some short-term weakness. On the whole, we think fundamental strength in the pair may prevail. The yen has been losing ground on easing geopolitical tensions and a lack of faith in Japan’s economy recovery. The stronger appetite for [...] Continue Reading


EURJPY: Have We Seen a Medium-Term Bottom? It Depends on Draghi

Updated -  Aug 21, 2014 1:30:00 PM By Matt Weller

With the widely-followed EURUSD hitting a new 11-month low under 1.3250 yesterday, it’s not surprising that sentiment is particularly dour toward the single currency. Taken from a broader perspective, however, the euro has actually been outperforming some of its major rivals, including in the EURGBP and the subject of today’s piece, the EURJPY. Earlier this month, EURJPY peeked down to a fresh YTD low under 136.25. As we always note though, it’s critical [...] Continue Reading


USDCAD Pressing Critical 1.0985 Barrier Ahead of US Data

Updated -  Aug 21, 2014 8:40:00 AM By Matt Weller

Last week, we featured a developing USDCAD Double Top pattern at 1.0985, suggesting that the pair may fall further after breaking the pattern’s point of reference at 1.0900 (see below for more). Though the pair did briefly tick down to 1.0860, the bears could not overcome the broad-based US dollar rally, and rates have since recovered back to the key 1.0985 barrier. Now, traders are asking, “Could we form a triple top, or is the [...] Continue Reading


GBPJPY: stuck between a rock and a hard place

Updated -  Aug 20, 2014 8:57:34 PM By Chris Tedder

The GBP was bolstered overnight by a strong signal from the BoJ that we’re nearing the new era of tighter monetary policy. In the words of my colleague Kathleen Books, there was mutiny at the BOE (read her full report here). Two members of the MPC have voted to go against their Governor by voting for a rate hike already. However, soft inflation expectations have put a damper on the pound’s rally. Nonetheless, [...] Continue Reading


Fed Minutes: Hawkish Shift Drives Buck to New Highs

Updated -  Aug 20, 2014 2:25:00 PM By Matt Weller

Traders just received the minutes from the most recent meeting of the Federal Reserve policy committee, and the big takeaway is that the FOMC is shifting in favor of normalizing monetary policy sooner than many traders were expecting. Though the vote in favor of last month’s policy statement was a relatively tame 9-1 decision, with hardcore hawk Charles Plosser as the only dissenter, the recently released minutes showed more discord within the committee than the [...] Continue Reading


EURUSD Hits an 11-Month Low – Can the Fed Minutes Stem the Bleeding?

Updated -  Aug 20, 2014 8:45:00 AM By Matt Weller

US traders are filtering into their desks this hump day to see some broad bullish price action for their home currency. With the exception of the pound, which has been supported by a hawkish “mutiny” in the most recent BOE minutes, all major currencies are falling against the US dollar. As a few examples, USDJPY has broken out to a new 4-month high, USDCAD is pressing its highest level in 3 months, and NZDUSD [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY: navigating Jackson Hole risk

Updated -  Aug 20, 2014 8:40:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

The Jackson Hole conference of central bankers may not be everyone’s idea of a barrel of laughs, but it can be big news for your portfolio. In the past, central bankers have used these speeches to announce changes in monetary policy; this is where Ben Bernanke first announced the prospect of QE. As we lead up to today’s meeting expectations are high that Janet Yellen will announce something equally juicy, especially as we are less [...] Continue Reading


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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

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