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Live Updates

August Month-End Model Points to Modest EURUSD Strength

Updated -  Aug 28, 2014 1:05:00 PM By Matt Weller

Background: Traders often discuss how ‘month end’ flows may impact a currency or a currency pair during the last few day(s) of the month. These flows are caused by global portfolio managers rebalancing their existing currency hedges. If the value of one country’s equity and bond markets increases, these money managers typically look to sell or hedge their elevated risk in that country’s currency and rebalance their exposure back to an underperforming country’s currency. The [...] Continue Reading


USDRUB: “Buy on the Sound Of Cannons?”

Updated -  Aug 28, 2014 9:10:00 AM By Matt Weller

Over two centuries ago, famed British banker Nathan Mayer Rothschild coined the trading phrase, “buy on the sound of cannons; sell on the sound of trumpets.” He was insinuating that markets tend to panic at the outbreak of wars (“the sound of cannons”), presenting good long-term values. On the other hand, markets typically become sanguine once a conflict comes to an end (“the sound of trumpets”), driving them to elevated levels where traders may want [...] Continue Reading


AUD jumps on Australia’s CAPEX data

Updated -  Aug 27, 2014 11:50:16 PM By Chris Tedder

The Australian dollar has been propelled higher by encouraging business investment figures out of Australia, with further signs that the economy is successfully shifting away from its reliance on mining investment. Business investment jumped 1.1% in Q2, beating an expected 0.9% fall. New Capital Expenditure Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Perhaps the most encouraging part of the report is the forward looking indicators for non-mining parts of the economy. Seasonally adjusted estimates [...] Continue Reading


AUD levels ahead of CAPEX data

Updated -  Aug 27, 2014 8:33:50 PM By Chris Tedder

Australia’s Q2 CAPEX report is almost here, so we look at the major support and resistance levels for four important AUD pairs. To recap: The release of Q2’s private capital expenditure figures could prove to be a big deal for the Australian dollar. In that respect, it’s very important to look beyond the headline figure (private CAPEX is expected to fall around 0.9% in Q2 to around AUD142bn) as it can mask underlying strength [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY: Data-Packed Last 48 Hours of the Week to Lead to a Triangle Breakout

Updated -  Aug 27, 2014 2:00:00 PM By Matt Weller

After rocketing 175 pips higher last week, USDJPY has been absolutely anemic this week. After gapping higher to trade at a new 7-month high above 104.12, rates dipped down to fill the gap on Monday and have since oscillated with 35 pips of the 104.00 handle. The recent trading conditions have undoubtedly been lackluster, but USDJPY traders should not lose faith yet; a busy economic calendar and developing technical pattern suggest volatility should return [...] Continue Reading


EURCHF: will the SNB defend the 1.20 peg?

Updated -  Aug 27, 2014 10:05:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

Since the Swiss National Bank (SNB) imposed its peg in EUR/CHF, this cross has only traded below 1.20 a handful of times, and each time it has bounced off this important level of support. In the three years that the peg has been in place, the market hasn’t tested the SNB’s resolve with any gusto. The market has seemed to accept that you don’t push EUR/CHF below 1.20, otherwise the SNB will act and you [...] Continue Reading


USDCAD Breaks Below Bullish Trend Line – Now Eyeing August Lows at 1.0860

Updated -  Aug 27, 2014 8:20:00 AM By Matt Weller

We’ve been tracking the USDCAD consistently over the last two weeks as the pair has struggled to break above key resistance at 1.0985 (see “USDCAD Pressing Critical 1.0985 Barrier Ahead of US Data” and “USDCAD: Short-Term Double Top Activated on Drop Below 1.0900” below for more). In all, bears were able to repel four separate rallies into that barrier, and rates finally dropped below 7-week bullish trend line support in today’s Asian session. From a [...] Continue Reading


China roundup: more red flags from the property market

Updated -  Aug 27, 2014 2:20:08 AM By Chris Tedder

More warning signs from China’s property market have kept investors on their toes this month. Economic data broadly improved but property data continues to point a slowdown in the still overheated real estate sector. While we can brush off slight weakness in some economy data, China’s cooling property market is arguably the biggest threat to global growth in the near-term. Construction and real estate sectors account for around 15% of GDP and are the [...] Continue Reading


AUD awaits Australia’s Q2 CAPEX data

Updated -  Aug 26, 2014 8:51:27 PM By Chris Tedder

It’s been a pretty quiet week for the Australian dollar due to a lack of local market moving events or headline economic data. The market’s attention has been offshore, with investors weighing the prospect of more supportive monetary policy action from Japan and Europe against a less dovish Fed. Nonetheless, the release of Q2’s private capital expenditure figures could prove to be a big deal for the Australian dollar. In that respect, it’s very [...] Continue Reading


AUDNZD: Wallaby-Kiwi Battle Line Drawn at 1.1200

Updated -  Aug 26, 2014 2:00:00 PM By Matt Weller

As my colleague Chris Tedder noted on Monday and earlier today, the New Zealand dollar’s had a tough start to the week. While some traders (including yours truly) were optimistic that the beleaguered currency may bounce back this week, the onslaught of negative economic data, not to mention the recent political turmoil ahead of next month’s elections, has driven the kiwi to a new 6-month low against the US dollar. While the [...] Continue Reading


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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

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