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Live Updates

Dow future tumbles ahead of NFP as market prepares for life after QE

Updated -  Aug 1, 2014 7:20:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

Stocks are plunging for a second day and it could potentially get really ugly once the nonfarm payrolls report is released. In normal circumstances, a stronger jobs report would be positive for stocks. But given the equity markets’ response to the robust second quarter US GDP reading and mostly positive corporate earnings results, the “good equals bad” formula may be back as the market prepares for life after QE. Although raised geopolitical risks may also [...] Continue Reading

Research Note: July NFP Prep

Updated -  Jul 31, 2014 3:30:00 PM By Matt Weller

By: Matt Weller, Senior Technical Analyst The July Non-Farm Payroll report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 ET (13:30 GMT), with expectations centered on a headline print of around 230k new jobs. My NFP forecasting model suggests that the NFP report will come in slightly below expectations,with leading indicators suggesting a July headline NFP reading of 206k. The model has been historically reliable, showing a correlation coefficient of .90 with the unrevised NFP headline figure [...] Continue Reading

Gold Battered by Buck’s Surge, but Short-term Support Sits at 1272

Updated -  Jul 31, 2014 1:25:00 PM By Matt Weller

Despite seeing some hints of “risk-off” trade in other markets, traditional safe-haven gold has failed to catch a bid this week. In fact, the yellow metal has actually dropped to a 6-week low below $1290 in today’s early US session. The persistent strength in the U.S. dollar is undoubtedly one of the biggest factors driving gold lower; all things equal, if the value of the dollar rises, it will take fewer of them to buy [...] Continue Reading

Stocks end July lower on geopolitical risks, uncertainty over US monetary policy

Updated -  Jul 31, 2014 11:00:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

July has been a month many equity investors, particularly those in Europe, would like to forget and as we head towards the last day of it, stocks are still falling. Sentiment has been hit by a number of factors, not least the on-going geopolitical risks stemming from the crises in Ukraine and Gaza. On top of this, Argentina has defaulted for the second time since 2011 after last minute talks with bondholders broke down, while [...] Continue Reading

WTI Stands for “Why The Impotence”

Updated -  Jul 31, 2014 8:35:00 AM By Matt Weller

One of the most reliable cause-and-effect relationships in all of global markets is that violence in the Middle East tends to lead to a spike in oil prices. As you might expect, the most direct explanation for this phenomenon comes from concerns about supply disruption in nearby oil-producing regions like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, and the UAE. In addition, risk-averse firms also rush to hedge, or lock in, the current oil price fearing that it [...] Continue Reading

AUDNZD – has the reversal begun?

Updated -  Jul 31, 2014 12:10:17 AM By Chris Tedder

Earlier this week we highlighted the possibility of weakness in AUDNZD, after a short period of strength (see: AUDNZD looks good in the short-term, but not in the long-term). Sure enough the pair has pushed higher in the last few days, but now a string of disappointing Australian economic data has caused some to question the rally. As we explained earlier in the week, the long-term fundamentals don’t look good for AUDNZD. The divergence [...] Continue Reading

AUDUSD sinks on strong US GDP numbers

Updated -  Jul 30, 2014 8:31:40 PM By Chris Tedder

AUDUSD sank as stronger than expected GDP data out of the US sent investors flocking to the US dollar, with the economy growing at an annualised growth rate of 4% last quarter (exp. 3.0%). This highlights that the recovery is back on track after a dismal start to the year In Q1, poor weather, inventory rundowns and other factors resulted in a revised 2.1% annualised fall in GDP. Last quarter’s strong performance is partly [...] Continue Reading

EUR/CHF: the forgotten FX pair could make a spectacular comeback

Updated -  Jul 30, 2014 1:30:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

With the USD taking the limelight this week because of all the economic reports from the world’s largest economy, the EUR/CHF may not be on many people’s radars. But the forgotten currency pair could be among the non-USD pairs worth watching closely going forward because today it has taken out a downward-sloping trend line that had been in place since May 2013. This means that the long-term bearish trend has at least weakened, if not [...] Continue Reading

GBPUSD: Is the Uptrend Coming to an End?

Updated -  Jul 30, 2014 1:20:00 PM By Matt Weller

We already discussed the traditional technical outlook for GBPUSD earlier this week (see “GBPUSD Bulls Standing on the Precipice” for more), but we wanted to revisit the pair and evaluate the health of the uptrend more objectively. In a sideways market, technical traders often look at the price relative to static support or resistance areas to determine whether the instrument is breaking out. This same principle can be adapted to evaluate whether a [...] Continue Reading

For weeks now, both USD bulls and bears have had today marked on their calendars as one of the most important days for US economic data of the entire summer (see “USD Bulls on Parade!” for more). While we’re only in the eye of the economic data storm right now, the first round undoubtedly went to the bulls. ADP: Ho-Hum The first fundamental salvo came from the monthly ADP employment report at 8:15am ET [...] Continue Reading

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) in Canada and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) in Hong Kong. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.


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