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Live Updates

S&P 500’s post-NFP reversal could be a bullish sign for the coming week

Updated -  Oct 2, 2015 3:00:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

Without fail, some popular financial personality will jokingly tweet “Week’s over” (or even “Month’s over”) after the release of the monthly Non-Farm Payroll report. Traders who took this common tongue-in-cheek joke too literally this month will be in for a rude awakening when they turn their attention back to the markets. By now, most readers know that this month’s jobs report was a big disappointment. Not only did the headline number of jobs miss expectations [...] Continue Reading

Gold down for sixth day as traders anticipate strong NFP data

Updated -  Oct 2, 2015 7:25:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

Gold is down for the sixth consecutive trading day and unless it stages an unexpectedly sharp rally later this afternoon, the metal is also going to snap a two-week winning streak. Just last Thursday it looked like the metal had finally woken up from its slumber when it momentarily traded above $1155 and a bearish trend line that has been in place since the start of this year. Then, both the dollar and equity markets [...] Continue Reading

NFP Prep: A 200k+ reading possible, but wages will reign supreme

Updated -  Oct 1, 2015 2:45:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

The September Non-Farm Payroll report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 ET (12:30 GMT, 1:30pm BST), with expectations centered on a headline print of 202k after last month’s muddy 173k reading. My model suggests that the report could slightly exceed these expectations,with leading indicators suggesting a Septemberheadline NFP reading of 219K. The model has been historically reliable, showing a correlation coefficient of 0.90 with the unrevised NFP headline figure dating back to 2001 (1.0 would [...] Continue Reading

Volatile day for crude and Canadian dollar

Updated -  Oct 1, 2015 1:00:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

Crude oil and crude-related assets like the Canadian dollar have had a volatile session. Oil prices were initially higher today and were on course to finish in the black for the third consecutive session. Sentiment in the oil market was improved on increased geopolitical risks arising from Russia’s military intervention in Syria and worries about supply outages in the US due to the developing Hurricane Joaquin. In addition, risk sentiment had improved across the board [...] Continue Reading

USD/CNH: Chinese economic data is about to get even less transparent…

Updated -  Oct 1, 2015 8:50:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

To put it politically, many analysts and traders take official Chinese economic data with a big grain of salt. The central government has long been suspected of “massaging” economic data to match up with the country’s aggressive growth goals, and as a result, skeptical traders tend to focus on third-party economic measures for a better read of the current conditions in the world’s second-largest economy. Unfortunately, that strategy is about to get a lot more [...] Continue Reading

DAX: double bottom reversal or bull trap?

Updated -  Oct 1, 2015 7:47:22 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

There are contradictory technical signals to be observed when looking at the daily chart of the DAX index, which means that both the bulls and the bears should proceed with an extra degree of caution. The bulls for example would point to the fact that the index has refused to hold below the previous low of 9320/5 area, which suggests that a double bottom reversal pattern may have been created. What’s more, the long-term bullish [...] Continue Reading

GBP/CHF: Will the Swiss slice a hole through 1.4600 support?

Updated -  Sep 30, 2015 3:15:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

It’s a classic risk-on day for global markets, with world equities rallying across the board, bond yields rising, oil ticking higher, and gold falling. This theme has carried over into the forex market, where commodity currencies are edging higher against the greenback, while low-yielders like the euro are suffering. Traders who don’t want to play the day-to-day risk-on/risk-off roulette may want to take a look at a currency pair like GBP/CHF, which tends to move [...] Continue Reading

AUD/USD in focus ahead of key data

Updated -  Sep 30, 2015 12:30:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

The AUD/USD could be in for a wild ride as we progress towards the end of this week, for there will be plenty of macroeconomic data from Australia, China and the US to provide direction. On Wednesday we’ve already had some mixed-bag data from Australia where building approvals – an important gauge for future construction activity – fell by a surprisingly large 6.9% in July following an upwardly revised 7.9% increase the month prior, [...] Continue Reading

EUR/AUD: A terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day for euro bulls

Updated -  Sep 30, 2015 9:00:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

The popular children’s book “Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day” describes the travails of a child named Alexander who endures gum in his hair, sitting in the middle of the back seat, no dessert at lunch, and eating lima beans, among other slights. After this morning’s economic data euro bulls are starting to feel a bit like Alexander. Every hour from 6:00 – 9:00 GMT brought another disappointing economic report [...] Continue Reading

S&P 500 set for positive start on last day of bad quarter

Updated -  Sep 30, 2015 8:20:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

European and UK stocks are trading sharply higher on this last day of what has been a bad third quarter, raising suspicion that the markets may be rising because of “window dressing.” This is when fund managers buy stocks that have been performing well in order to make their portfolios look attractive, though Glencore, which has been absolutely battered of late, is up 10% after the company reassured investors that it is not going bust. [...] Continue Reading

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) in Canada and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) in Hong Kong. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.


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