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The Nikkei jumps on disappointing Japanese economic data

Updated -  Jan 29, 2015 11:47:23 PM By Chris Tedder

At first glance the above title may seem somewhat counterintuitive; one may expect that an equity index, an asset class that is generally classed as risky, to retreat on the back of economic data that shows its home country is underperforming the market’s expectations. However, the market is banking on the fact that softer than expected economic data will keep the QE flood gates open for a prolonged period of time, which is generally a [...] Continue Reading

China roundup: the doomsayers are getting louder

Updated -  Jan 29, 2015 9:41:25 PM By Chris Tedder

It has been a big month of data releases from China, most of which haven’t painted a very rosy picture of the economy. The biggest release was Q4 GDP numbers which showed that the economy grew 7.4% YTD y/y, missing the government’s official 7.5% growth target for last year. It’s true that this was a soft and outdated target, thus it didn’t come as a surprise to the market when the economy grew at a [...] Continue Reading

AUDNZD: Who’s Weaker?

Updated -  Jan 29, 2015 3:47:37 PM By Neal Gilbert

The commodity currencies of Australia and New Zealand have really been abused of late as their central banks have leaked that they could be cutting interest rates or backed away quickly from a hawkish stance respectively. When viewing the context of the decisions to lean more dovish for both nation’s central banks -- falling milk prices, falling oil, falling copper, Eurozone Quantitative Easing, a slowing China, etc. -- it makes complete sense for them to [...] Continue Reading

January Month-End Model Suggests Strong Dollar Rally, Pending GDP

Updated -  Jan 29, 2015 2:45:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

Background: Traders often refer the impact of ‘month end flows’ on different currency pairs during the last few days of the month. In essence, these money ‘flows’ are caused by global fund managers and investors rebalancing their currency exposure based on market movements over the last month. For example, if the value of one country’s equity and bond markets increases, these fund managers typically look to sell or hedge their now-elevated exposure to that country’s [...] Continue Reading

Gold’s $30 drop: overreaction or sign of things to come?

Updated -  Jan 29, 2015 1:40:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

Today saw gold turn sharply lower, partially in response to a rebounding European stock market. In other words, the safe haven asset has lost out in favour of the riskier stocks. What’s more, the dollar has risen once again today and this has weighed on some buck-denominated commodities, including precious metals and crude oil with WTI dropping to a fresh multi-year low sub-$44 a barrel. Meanwhile as the CFTC reported on Friday, bullish speculation has [...] Continue Reading

Denmark: will EUR/DKK peg survive?

Updated -  Jan 29, 2015 11:30:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

Denmark shocked the markets again today and cut its deposit rate even deeper into negative territory. The rate is now -0.5% from -0.35%, which is the lowest ever level. This follows last week’s cut to rates in the wake of the ECB meeting. The reason for the cut is to maintain the Danish krone’s peg with the EUR. The EURDKK rate had climbed since last week’s ECB decision and subsequent Danish action; however, after [...] Continue Reading

Stocks: earnings alert

Updated -  Jan 29, 2015 10:55:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

We are in the middle of Q4 2014 earnings season right now, with global companies reporting results for last year. So far a few themes are coming to the surface: the strong dollar is hurting US multinationals, and a sharp drop in the oil price is wreaking havoc in the energy sector. Next week we witness a further glut of global earnings, below are the biggest companies to watch out for.  [...] Continue Reading

AUDJPY: Don’t Try to Catch a Falling Knife

Updated -  Jan 29, 2015 10:31:16 AM By Neal Gilbert

It has been an exciting early morning in North America as a variety of new developments have hit the news wires and rankled currency and futures markets. The follow through on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand dovishness from late yesterday continued to resonate through Asia and Europe as the NZD pairs retreated even further than the initial reaction. Not to be left out, the AUD felt the force of the RBNZ’s decision [...] Continue Reading

AUDUSD Crumbling Like the Roman Empire - More Losses Possible if .7700 Gives Way

Updated -  Jan 29, 2015 8:50:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

My colleague Chris Tedder discussed the fundamental drivers for the big drop in AUDUSD during today’s Asian session, but the pair is moving so fast that it’s worth updating some of the key technical levels to watch. After a strangely delayed reaction to yesterday morning’s dovish article by RBA watcher Terry McCrann, the Australian dollar is falling in earnest heading into today’s US session. Like the Roman Empire, there have been cracks in [...] Continue Reading

NZD/USD breaks double-top neckline on dovish RBNZ

Updated -  Jan 29, 2015 6:15:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

The Kiwi has made a significant technical breakthrough after the RBNZ shifted into a neutral policy stance overnight. As a reminder, the central bank dropped a line from its statement that read “…some further increase in the OCR is expected to be required at a later stage,” and changed it with “…we expect to keep the OCR on hold for some time.” They were also more downbeat on inflation and economic growth. This means [...] Continue Reading

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) in Canada and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) in Hong Kong. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.



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