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EURUSD: Grexit Fears Still Lurking Just Beyond the Horizon

Updated -  Aug 4, 2015 2:50:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

While much of Europe’s economy is chugging along at the same slow but steady pace, traders were abruptly reminded of Greece’s economic tragedy yesterday. Most of yesterday’s Manufacturing PMI figures out of individual Eurozone countries were in-line with expectations in the low- to mid-50s (including in Germany, France, and Italy) but the figure out of Greece was so abysmal that many analysts thought it was due to a calculation error. The widely-watched Manufacturing survey showed [...] Continue Reading

Cracks appearing in US stock markets

Updated -  Aug 4, 2015 10:25:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

Following the global financial crisis, US stock markets have been marching higher year after year since they bottomed out in March 2009. But this year the markets have struggled for direction and that’s still the case today despite what has been a decent quarterly earnings season so far. Thus the winning streak could be over come December 31st. There are various reasons why this could happen, not least the fact that the end of the [...] Continue Reading

AUDUSD: Awesome Aussie Awakens

Updated -  Aug 4, 2015 8:05:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

As my colleagues Chris Tedder and Fawad Razaqzada noted earlier today (see “RBA Removes its Dovish Bias and the Ceiling on AUD” and “AUD/JPY: Triple Bottom Reversal?” for more), the Australian dollar has surged across the board as the Reserve Bank of Australia took a definitive shift to a more neutral outlook last night. Combined with better-than-expected reports on retail sales (0.7% m/m vs. 0.5% expected) and the country’s trade balance (-2.93B in [...] Continue Reading

AUD/JPY: triple bottom reversal?

Updated -  Aug 4, 2015 7:15:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

The Reserve Bank of Australia has inspired a rally in the Aussie by changing a phrase in its latest policy statement. The RBA merely stated the obvious by noting that the Australian dollar is adjusting to significant declines in key commodity prices. As my colleague Chris Tedder reported, this is a far cry from the bank’s comments at its last policy meeting which suggested that further depreciation in the Aussie seemed both likely and [...] Continue Reading

RBA removes its dovish bias and the ceiling on AUD

Updated -  Aug 4, 2015 1:14:03 AM By Chris Tedder

At its policy meeting today the RBA held the official cash rate steady at 2% for the third month in a row, as expected by the majority of the market. The bank completely softened its stance on the exchange rate, noting that the Australian dollar is adjusting to significant declines in key commodity prices. This is far cry from the bank’s comments on the back of its last policy meeting which suggested that further depreciation [...] Continue Reading

EM Rundown: The CBR’s “Signals by Omission”

Updated -  Aug 3, 2015 2:30:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

There’s a decidedly risk-off tone to the markets on the first Monday of August, with the US dollar and bonds edging higher at the expense of US equities and oil in particular. This same pattern is evident in the less-monitored world of emerging market currencies as well, where currencies like the Mexican peso, South African rand, and Turkish lira are all trading lower against the greenback thus far. As we briefly noted in  [...] Continue Reading

Gold’s next move could be huge, but which direction will it be?

Updated -  Aug 3, 2015 12:30:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

Gold ended last week only marginally lower thanks to Friday’s noticeable bounce which saw the precious metal momentarily surpass the $1100 handle. Friday’s counter-trend move was partly in response to news that the second quarter US Employment Cost Index (ECI) showed a very small rise of 0.2% in wage pressure. Traders responded to the data by booking some profit on their long dollar and short gold positions as the month drew to a close. Nevertheless, [...] Continue Reading

USDCAD Bulls on Parade…Where Will the Stampede Stop?

Updated -  Aug 3, 2015 8:40:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

As my colleague Fawad Razaqzada noted earlier today, the big market theme at the start of this week is persistent weakness in oil prices. Both the WTI and Brent contracts are at new multi-month lows this morning and are within sight of the multi-year lows set earlier in 2015 after record high oil output from OPEC (see “Crude Extends Decline on Record OPEC Oil Output” for more). Beyond the oil market itself, this [...] Continue Reading

Crude extends decline on record OPEC oil output

Updated -  Aug 3, 2015 7:20:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

Crude oil prices continue to head south. As before, they are being driven lower predominantly because of the disequilibrium created from the supply side of the equation. In fact, it is not just the actual supply but the expected growth in supply that are also weighing on prices. Although the demand outlook has improved somewhat, it is nowhere near strong enough to help offset the steep rises in supply. The latest manufacturing data from China [...] Continue Reading

It’s a massive week for AUDNZD

Updated -  Aug 3, 2015 12:45:55 AM By Chris Tedder

The Australian dollar is drifting lower in Asia after a softer than expected reading of private sector Chinese manufacturing PMI for July. Caixin’s Manufacturing PMI dropped to a two-year low at 47.8, well below expectations, July’s flash reading and the 50-mark which separates expansion and contraction. This paints a much bleaker picture of China’s manufacturing sector than the official figures which were released on Saturday; official manufacturing PMI was 50, down from 50.2 in June. [...] Continue Reading

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) in Canada and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) in Hong Kong. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.


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