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Live Updates

US retail sales beat again, market-economy gap continues to widen

Updated -  Feb 12, 2016 9:25:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

After an extremely volatile week, traders are no doubt feeling a bit apprehensive about the future. After all, global stocks have now entered a “bear market” (20% decline in the MSCCI World index), USD/JPY briefly traded down over 1000 pips in less than two weeks, and US 10-year treasury yields are approaching all-time lows, a threshold that many global bonds have already reached. Surely all this risk-off trading is can be chalked up [...] Continue Reading


FTSE: Another short-covering bounce for stocks?

Updated -  Feb 12, 2016 6:20:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

At the time of this writing on Friday morning, equities were witnessing some rare green price action in a rather quiet session. The major indices here were up around 1 to 1.5 per cent and US index futures pointed to a firmer start on Wall Street. Compared to the recent sharp falls, today’s bounce represents a mere drop in the ocean. We are not out of the woods just yet as like the previous occasions [...] Continue Reading


EUR/USD maintains gains on weak dollar

Updated -  Feb 11, 2016 4:10:00 PM By James Chen, CMT

The current surge in EUR/USD may have been somewhat difficult to imagine just a few months ago when it seemed that most market participants had a strong bearish outlook for the currency pair. That bearish bias stemmed logically from the argument that the prevailing monetary policy stances between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve remained highly divergent, with a consistently dovish ECB pressuring the euro and an increasingly hawkish Fed supporting [...] Continue Reading


Why are US 10-year yields nearing all-time lows…and what does it mean?

Updated -  Feb 11, 2016 3:20:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

Nothing like a crazy day in the markets to get the old blood flowing again. In our research here, we typically focus on specific opportunities in the FX, commodity, and equity markets, but we would be remiss if we didn’t mention the massive move taking place in one of the world’s most important (and some would say “smartest”) market: bonds. Despite all the talk in the media about preparing for a “rising interest rate enviroment,” [...] Continue Reading


NZD/USD: Bullish breakout on the cards for Kiwi?

Updated -  Feb 11, 2016 1:50:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

The US dollar has fallen quite sharply in recent days on receding expectations about another Federal Reserve rate increase this year. The dollar’s weakness has been clearly evident in the currency pairs which were heavily one-sided trades, such as the EUR/USD (short), USD/JPY (long) and USD/CHF (long). Given the dollar weakness, one would have expected currencies where the central bank is more hawkish to have done better, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. [...] Continue Reading


Dollar drops on Yellen testimony, yen extends surge on tumbling stocks

Updated -  Feb 11, 2016 12:50:00 PM By James Chen, CMT

The dollar continued its recent downside momentum on Thursday as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen closed out a second day of testimony to the US Congress, casting an ominous shadow over the prospect of further interest rate hikes. Indeed, investors have even begun to speculate on potential interest rate cuts going forward, while Yellen specifically refrained from ruling out negative rates in her Senate testimony on Thursday. The dramatic reversal recently in US monetary policy [...] Continue Reading


USD/SEK: Post-Riksbank bounce only lasted a SEK

Updated -  Feb 11, 2016 10:10:00 AM By Matt Weller, CMT

Global markets went into a panic overnight as oil (WTI) took a tumble all the way down to the lower-26.00s, USD/JPY collapsed below 111.00 before an apparent “rate check” by the BOJ, and gold soared to 1240. Meanwhile, lost in the admittedly exciting roller coaster ride of volatility, the world’s oldest central bank surprised traders by cutting interest rates deeper into oversold territory. In today’s European session, Sweden’s Riksbank lowered its main repurchase rate [...] Continue Reading


Gold soars as risk appetite plunges

Updated -  Feb 11, 2016 7:00:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

Gold’s sharp rally off December’s low of $1046 has seen its price rise more than 17 per cent in the space of a few weeks. At the time of writing today, the precious metal was trading at just shy of $1230. Gold’s sudden waking from its slumber has caught many people by surprise, myself included. Likewise, the stock market plunge has lasted a lot longer than what most people had probably envisaged when it first [...] Continue Reading


DAX remains pressured after major breakdown

Updated -  Feb 10, 2016 4:40:00 PM By James Chen, CMT

Germany’s DAX index broke down late last week below a major support level at 9300. That breakdown was especially significant because the 9300 level had previously held up effectively for more than 14 months – most recently in August, September, and then three weeks ago in late January. Prior to that key support breakdown, Germany’s benchmark equity index had been falling in an increasingly bearish trend from the 11400-area highs back in the beginning of [...] Continue Reading


S&P 500: Massive, long-term support zone under threat

Updated -  Feb 10, 2016 2:45:00 PM By Matt Weller, CMT

At the beginning of last week, we provided a “check-up” midway through the Q4 earnings season for the S&P 500, concluding that the four biggest themes were “falling earnings and sales, weak performance out of the energy sector, continued improvement in margins, and the dramatic impact of the US Dollar.” We’ll provide a full summary of the reports when earnings season is winding down, but once again, it looks like large US companies will [...] Continue Reading


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