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EURAUD Has 1-Year Lows in Sight

Updated -  Jul 23, 2014 2:35:00 PM By Matt Weller

Yesterday, my colleague Kathleen Brooks discussed the bizarre breakdown in EURUSD. Despite broad-based USD weakness and a lack of negative news out of Europe, the world’s most widely-traded currency pair fell through a key support zone in the 1.3475-1.3500 area to hit a new yearly low. When a currency pair makes a surprising move with no obvious catalyst, it can mean one of two things: that the move is a temporary mispricing that will [...] Continue Reading

AUDNZD: Can the RBNZ Put the Brakes on the Rally?

Updated -  Jul 23, 2014 1:35:00 PM By Matt Weller

Much like the USDJPY, which we discussed at length earlier today, the AUDNZD has been rangebound for most of 2014. In its case, the antipodean pairing has been finding consistent support in the 1.05-1.06 area and resistance between 1.09 and 1.10. While sideways trade is hardly ideal for longer-term buyers or sellers, bulls will certainly agree that 2014 has been an improvement over 2012 and 2013, when the typically-staid pair fell over 2400 pips in [...] Continue Reading

Time for USDJPY Traders to Wake Up?

Updated -  Jul 23, 2014 1:05:00 PM By Matt Weller

Out of all the major currency pairs, the USDJPY has undoubtedly been one of the dullest thus far this year. The pair has been trapped within a tight range from roughly 101.00 to 104.00 since mid-January, driving the average weekly range (ATR) to levels not seen since before the introduction of Abenomics in Q3 2012. Just when traders thought it couldn’t get any worse, bears began stepping in at lower and lower levels, and starting [...] Continue Reading

Crude oil rises on another sharp inventories drawdown, geopolitical uncertainty

Updated -  Jul 23, 2014 1:00:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

Crude oil is higher today with Brent currently trading at $107.80 and WTI at just shy of $103.00. Brent has risen on continued geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over further sanctions on Russia. A day after the pro-Russian rebels handed over the black boxes of the crashed Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, today they have downed two Ukrainian warplanes in the east of Ukraine. On top of this, there’s been no let-up in the Gaza conflict between [...] Continue Reading

Bank of England to markets: “Hold your horses”

Updated -  Jul 23, 2014 8:20:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks

The minutes from the BOE meetings have become the most important way for the market to gauge the Bank’s sentiment and make predictions about its next move. After feeling pretty confident in recent weeks that Mark Carney and co. had shifted to a more hawkish policy stance, the market rushed to price in two rate hikes by the end of Q1 2015, the latest minutes have left the market scratching its head once more. How [...] Continue Reading

EURGBP: 2012 low in sight?

Updated -  Jul 23, 2014 7:20:00 AM By Fawad Razaqzada

The pound fell back this morning after the Bank of England’s last policy meeting minutes revealed the MPC was a lot less hawkish than some had anticipated. For example, there were warnings that the outlook for the housing market is slightly less strong, that the MPC sees “tentative signs of modest output slowdown” in the second half of the year, and that the weakness of wages despite strong rises in employment was “becoming more striking.” [...] Continue Reading

Inflation heats up in Australia; kills calls for another rate cut

Updated -  Jul 23, 2014 1:05:35 AM By Chris Tedder

Suring consumer prices in Q2 have severely, likely fatally, damaged the case for another cut to the official cash rate in Australia this year. Core CPI is running significantly hotter than the market expected and is uncomfortably close to the top of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range. This restricts the ability of the bank to ease policy further and reduce the impact of a stubbornly high Australian dollar. Core inflation heats [...] Continue Reading

The RBNZ is expected to hike rates, before shifting into neutral

Updated -  Jul 22, 2014 10:41:41 PM By Chris Tedder

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to hike the official cash rate to 3.5% from 3.25% at its policy meeting on Thursday. The bank has increased the cash rate at its last three meetings in response to strong non-tradables inflation and robust growth, which has put the RBNZ on the path towards normalising monetary policy. However, falling commodity prices, particularly for milk and logs, and a stubbornly strong NZ dollar have cast [...] Continue Reading

BOE Minutes Preview: Real Wages are Really Important

Updated -  Jul 22, 2014 3:00:00 PM By Matt Weller

Trade in GBPUSD has been undeniably lackluster to start this week, with rates contained to just a 60-pip range thus far, but volatility in the GBPUSD will almost certainly pick up substantially heading into the latter half of the week. While classic stalwarts like Retail Sales (Thursday) and Preliminary GDP (Friday) are sure to be market-moving one way or another, tomorrow’s BOE Minutes may be the most important event for traders to monitor. A [...] Continue Reading

GBP/USD upward trend still intact, but bulls need to show presence pretty soon

Updated -  Jul 22, 2014 12:30:00 PM By Fawad Razaqzada

About a month ago now, we took a long-term view on the GBP/USD and suggested that there could be significant gains on the way for the currency pair. At the time, the Cable had just breached 1.7040/5 which was previously a significant resistance level and also the 2009 high. From there, it went up by another 150 pips before the rally exhausted around 1.7190. As can be seen on the daily chart, this 1.7190 [...] Continue Reading

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) in Canada and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) in Hong Kong. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.


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