Updated May 19, 2013 6:02:31 PM
EURUSD may be in the midst of a bearish ascending triangle formation in the short-term. This suggests we may see some downside price in action in this pair in coming sessions. However, if price action breaks above the top of this triangle formation it may invalidate this scenario. In the long-term, the pair’s 50day SMA has broken below it 200day SMA – the golden cross - and price action recently broke through the bottom [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 17, 2013 3:15:00 PM
The Kiwi has continued to decline over the past few days, largely following in the footsteps of the Aussie, and further downside could still be on the horizon. That said, this move may be attributed to not only USD strength, but also NZD weakness as the market has slowly been coming around to the notion we highlighted on Monday, “the implementation of such (macro-prudential) measures essentially takes the possibility of future rake hikes off the [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 17, 2013 5:30:00 AM
On Thursday we mentioned that USDCAD was approaching 1.0230 – a key resistance level. This key level, so where can it go now? Fundamental perspective: This dollar continues to recover on the back of some hawkish commentary from Fed members. San Francisco Fed President John Williams waded into the debate last night and said that the Fed may start to buy bonds in the next few months. Williams’ comments come after Fed member Charles [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 17, 2013 12:12:26 AM
Yesterday’s surprisingly good GDP and better than expected machine orders figures today beg the question, is Abenomics working? Japan’s economy grew at the fastest pace among all G7 countries in Q1. GDP increased 0.9% during the first quarter of this year, compared to an expected 0.7% rise and a revised 0.3% in the prior quarter. Also, machine orders increased 14.2% in March, beating an estimated gain of 3.5%. At face value it certainly looks like [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 16, 2013 6:47:48 PM
NZDCAD has been selling off hard since late April due to a broader flood out of the kiwi, which overshadowed a push higher in USDCAD. Whilst the main driving force behind recent weakness in NZDUSD and strength in USDCAD was a surge towards the US dollar, the NZ dollar was also hit by news that the RBNZ had intervened in the currency market to devalue the kiwi and may do so again. Furthermore, NZDCAD broke [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 16, 2013 5:30:49 PM
After the yen, the Australian dollar was the worst performer against the US dollar last month, while the euro was the best performer. This combination sent EURAUD from around 1.2220 to a high of around 1.3120. In recent days weak economic data out of Europe led to a slight pullback in the pair (eurozone GDP fell 0.2% according to advance Q1 figures and German Q1 GDP increased less than expected at 0.1%), and it is [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 16, 2013 4:10:00 PM
AUDCAD has continued to descend after breaking below the key 1.0300/25 level of support highlighted on May 6th. This Aussie weakness has continued over the past 24-hours as AUDUSD broke below the 0.9860/90 support zone highlighted yesterday: 23.6% retracement, 200-week sma and triangle support. Currently, AUDCAD is testing parity, with the 200-week sma just below around 0.9995. Considering AUDUSD broke below its respective 200-week sma overnight, it would not come as a major surprise [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 16, 2013 1:55:00 PM
This morning the Central Bank of Turkey reduced interest rates by more than expected. The bank cut the rates by 50bps across the board while markets were anticipating a 25bps rate cut. The benchmark repo rate was reduced to 4.50% from the prior 5.00%, overnight lending rate cut to 6.50% from 7.00%, and overnight borrowing rate to 3.50% from 4.00%. This action by the central bank put pressure on the TRY which fell to its [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 16, 2013 12:00:00 PM
Another day, another wave of economic disappointments for the US economy. What a difference a week makes, this time last week the dollar surged nearly 3% on the back of the lowest level of unemployment claims for 5 years. However, the better payrolls numbers didn’t last long, rising to 360k from 328k last week. This was the highest level of claims since the end of March. Added to this the Philly Fed plunged to -5.2 [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated May 16, 2013 10:20:00 AM
The slew of economic data released this morning out of the US reinforced the need for ongoing Fed stimulus (for now) as reports raised concern regarding both of the Fed’s mandates (price stability and full employment). Consumer prices fell by -0.4% m/m in April which was deeper than the expected -0.3% drop and even lower than the prior month’s decline of -0.2%. This was the first back-to-back decline since 2008 and the April decline was [...] Continue Reading ...
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