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November 2, 2009 5:35 PM
The NY session saw recent inter-market correlations continue to play out. Equities ended the day 0.7% higher after some rollercoaster price action. Risk assets started NY trading substantially higher and were catapulted by a much stronger than expected US ISM manufacturing report. The headline jumped to 55.7 from 52.6 and the details were also strong. Indeed, the employment component printed above 50 for the first time since July of last year.
The rally would not last, however, as Fed Banking Supervisor Greenlee said that “significant” weakness remains in the US financial markets. This elicited a collapse in risky assets and a short-term rebound in the buck. EUR/USD knifed down from a 1.4845 high towards a session low near 1.4730. Gold also bore the brunt of the USD strength and sank from $1062 to $1054 in quick fashion. Some late day mergers and acquisitions news helped lift equities off the mat and the US dollar resumed its “whipping boy” role. EUR/USD promptly rallied about 50 pips into the close while Gold traded near $1060 as we write.
The upcoming Asia session has the RBA rate decision as the highlight. The market is looking for a 25 basis point increase in the Australian target rate to 3.50%. However, there are a couple of market strategists expecting a more aggressive 50bp hike. In AUD/USD, the 21-hour sma by 0.9035/40 still looks like the short-term pivot. Should the RBA hike more than expected, we would look for a prompt visit to the 0.9135/30 hourly down-trendline.