Weekly Strategy: Kiwi heads and shoulders below the rest?

Updated  May 22, 2012 1:10:00 AM

EUR/USD exit… Last Friday, EUR/USD fell to lows slightly above 1.2640 before sharply reversing higher. However, the move down to the most recent 1.2640 lows hit the H&S measured move objective (see below April 19, 2012 Weekly Strategy Update) and final limit target from the MARCH 9 2012, 0314ET...WEEKLY STRATEGY: 'Don't buy the rumor, sell the irrational exuberance' at around 1.2650 for a potential reward of about +585 pips, also updated in [...] Continue Reading ...

FX VIEWS (Weekly Wrap): BEATING THE STREET

Updated  May 18, 2012 9:00:00 PM

Both the euro and kiwi plunged to fresh multi-month lows hitting limit targets for potential short plays vs. USD highlighted within the FX VIEWS series. I can go on and on about Greece, Spain, and China risks – which I’ve done time & time again – but I think by viewing below.......ENOUGH SAID: NZD/USD SHORTS - FEB 15 2012, 0345ET...FX VIEWS: A diamond in the rough for kiwi shorts?     TRADE PREMISE: [...] Continue Reading ...

The Week Ahead--Week of May 20, 2012

Updated  May 18, 2012 1:00:00 PM

It was a pivotal week for the Eurozone after Greece announced that it was heading back to the polls after the top three parities failed to form a coalition government. So now Greece is leaderless, there is a caretaker government in place but it won’t be able to enforce the austerity required to get the next tranche of bailout funds necessary for Greece to avoid running out of money in July. So as time runs [...] Continue Reading ...

EMERGING MARKETS FX INSIGHT: Sell in May, EMFX in-flows go away

Updated  May 17, 2012 9:30:00 PM

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Indices Insider Australia and Asia: More downside potential for equity markets in Asia

Updated  May 17, 2012 3:23:27 AM

The global risk sell-off has hit equity markets in Asia hard. In fact, some stock markets in Asia have suffered more than their counterparts in the US and Europe, for instance the ASX200 has lost around 3.05% of its value in the last 5 days, whereas the Dow Jones and the Euro Stoxx are only down around 1.84% and 2.26% respectively. This is interesting when we consider investors have been squarely focused on the political [...] Continue Reading ...

THE CORRELATIONS CORNER: Cross asset relationships suggest further downside scope for risk assets

Updated  May 14, 2012 5:53:00 PM

“Tightening 30-day FX: EQUITY MARKET correlations suggest further selling for risk assets may be in store in May. Cross-asset correlations reached cyclical highs during periods of extreme risk aversion in 2011.” - MAY 7 2012; 2200ET...CORRELATIONS CORNER: FX S/T CORRELATIONS SUGGESTING DOWNSIDE FOR RISK ASSETS? Fears of an impending Eurozone exit for Greece, glaring holes in Spain’s banking sector, and softening economic data from China have been the primary factors behind this ongoing risk [...] Continue Reading ...

The Week Ahead--Week of May 13, 2012

Updated  May 11, 2012 1:30:00 PM

The BOE kept rates on hold when it concluded its May meeting last week; it also allowed the asset purchase program to come to an end. Since the UK slipped back into recession in Q1 2012 and the growth figures at the start of the second quarter have continued to look weak, the decision to hold interest rates was mostly down to the sticky outlook for inflation. The attention now turns to Wednesday’s Inflation Report. [...] Continue Reading ...

Indices Insider Europe and the US: Does the sell-off have further to go?

Updated  May 11, 2012 12:00:00 PM

This is the million dollar question that everyone wants to know after stock markets across the globe suffered heavy losses last week in the wake of the French and Greek election results. Europe is still at the epicentre of the sell-off and although risk markets seem calmer as we end the week, market nerves remain frayed. From a fundamental perspective the future direction of stock markets could go a couple of ways in the [...] Continue Reading ...

FX VIEWS (Q2 '11 to H2 '12): BEATING THE STREET – Relative, selective, and positive reward to risk value currency plays

Updated  May 8, 2012 8:00:00 PM

THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS: REVIEW - Q2 2011 to present FX VIEWS STRATEGY TRACKER: BEATING THE STREET COME WHAT MAY: Key FX drivers in May and the months ahead ACTIVE STRATEGY UPDATES: Link to ‘date & time’ stamped active strategy & updates thereafter, specified entries and exits, trade premise, & open P/L (pips) CLOSED STRATEGY RECAPS: Links to ‘date & time’ stamped closed strategy & [...] Continue Reading ...