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Research Results

Results for 'China'

32 articles with this tag name

USDCNY may continue to fall

Updated  May 15, 2013 10:12:41 PM


Last week the renminbi reached its highest level against the US dollar in 19 years. Since mid-2005 USDCNY has been on a controlled decent from a fixed position around 8.2765 to its low of 6.1307. If not for the intervention of Beijing the decrease would have been more of a collapse. However, is the renminbi still undervalued? From a fundamental perspective the Chinese currency is more fairly valued now than it was a decade ago,  [...] Continue Reading ...

Tags: China, CNY, renminbi, USD

The aussie’s pounding

Updated  May 13, 2013 12:10:13 AM


The Australian dollar’s push below parity against the US dollar has dominated the headlines, but the downward movement of that pair is dwarfed by corresponding price action in GBPAUD. Since early April broad GBP strength and AUD weakness has resulted in over a 1000 pip move in the pair. Positive data surprises last month out of the UK (March PMI, Q1 GDP and April manufacturing) fuelled the rally in the British pound, while looser monetary  [...] Continue Reading ...

Tags: AUD, China, GBP, Inflation, UK

London Session: Risk rallies after China data, BoE and ECB hold

Updated  Jan 10, 2013 9:50:00 AM


Risk appetite was supported after better than expected trade data out of China and as major central banks kept policy unchanged. The USD and the JPY are much weaker today as a result of the improvement in risk sentiment while the Scandies and the euro are trading significantly higher. EUR/JPY rose to its highest level since July 2011 and EUR/USD is testing the 1.32 figure after rising sharply following the ECB rate announcement.
As  [...] Continue Reading ...


Fundamental Update: What next for the Aussie?

Updated  Jan 16, 2013 4:00:00 AM


Since the start of the year the talk has been about how the bulls have control and stocks had a sharp move higher. However, after a good two weeks the rally seems to have lost some steam and is at a cross roads: is this is just a normal pause or could the rally be over before it even started? Since the Aussie is often considered the riskiest of the G10 currencies overall market  [...] Continue Reading ...


Fundamental Update: The RBA

Updated  Apr 1, 2013 5:30:32 PM


The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep the official cash rate (OCR) at 3.00% at a policy meeting later today, citing recent strong domestic economic indicators and mixed conditions offshore. However, there is the possibility of another rate cut/s later this year if the Australian dollar strengthens further and/or non-mining growth fails to fill the gap left by an expected decrease in resource investment later this year. Today, the RBA is  [...] Continue Reading ...


Fundamental Update: More of the same from the RBA

Updated  Apr 2, 2013 12:31:14 AM


The RBA elected to leave the official cash rate on hold at 3.00%, citing slightly below trend growth and target levels of inflation. The bank retained a modest easing bias using its well-worn line that inflation provides scope for further easing if needed to stimulate demand. Then again, the bank noted that downside risk to global growth appears to be abating. On balance, the rhetoric from the RBA today is consistent with the bank’s current  [...] Continue Reading ...


Chinese equity yields and 10-yr Treasuries

Updated  Oct 13, 2010 12:00:00 PM


Interesting research from one of the large investment banks. The dividend yield on the MSCI China Index has surpassed 10-yr Treasury yields since August. The last time this happened was in the fourth quarter of 2008, the MSCI China Index had made a low and went on to rally strongly for the next 6 months. This suggests that Chinese equities may rally further- the index has risen by 19% since reaching a low  [...] Continue Reading ...


Asia Session: Wheeler takes another shot at NZD

Updated  May 8, 2013 1:17:52 AM


RBNZ Governor Wheeler sparked a sell-off in the kiwi after he stated that the RBNZ has been selling NZ dollars and is capable of further intervention to weaken the kiwi. This isn’t the first time the Governor has talked about intervention, but the idea of being on the wrong side of the fence if the bank were to start heavily amassing foreign currency spooked the market. NZDUSD lost just fewer than 100 pips immediately after  [...] Continue Reading ...


Asia Session: USD and JPY lose ground

Updated  Apr 19, 2013 12:51:46 AM


The yen lost more ground today against the majors after Japanese Finance Minister Aso said the G20 isn’t opposed to Japan’s policies, adding that Abe’s economic plans are aimed at ending deflation (implying that Tokyo isn’t directly targeting the yen). At prior meetings G20 officials had expressed concerns about currency manipulation, which brought the possibility of further quarrels at this week’s meeting over the issue to the attention of investors. There was some talk of  [...] Continue Reading ...


Asia Session: The RBA leaves rates alone

Updated  Mar 4, 2013 11:28:06 PM


The RBA left the official cash rate at 3.00% at its policy meeting today, citing improving global sentiment and slightly below trend growth. The bank reiterated the inflation outlook provides scope for further easing if deemed necessary to support demand. On the financial sector, the RBA noted an improvement in sentiment compared to mid-2012, with risk spreads narrowing and funding conditions being more attractive. The bank also hinted at the improvement in prospects for  [...] Continue Reading ...


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