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Research Results

Results for 'GBP/USD'

50 articles with this tag name

Will This Week’s Data Take GBPUSD to a New 14-Month Low?

Updated  Nov 5, 2014 1:00:00 PM

The US elections are now behind us, and as widely anticipated, Republicans have solidified their lead in the House of Representatives and seized control of the Senate. For the next two years, the legislative branch of the government will be controlled by the Republican majority, whereas the executive branch (President) is Democratic. While the Republicans’ strong performance may lead to some progress on trade and energy policies among others, the gridlock that has ensnared Washington  [...] Continue Reading ...

Will the BOE admit they got it wrong again?

Updated  Nov 11, 2014 2:55:00 PM

On Wednesday 12th November the Bank of England will deliver its final Inflation Report of the year, and all eyes will be on potential changes to the growth and inflation forecasts. Forecast revisions In the August report the BOE expected GDP of 3.5% for this year, 3.1% for 2015 and 2.6% in 2016. However, after a weaker than expected Q3 reading for UK GDP of 0.7%, versus BOE forecasts of 0.9%, and some  [...] Continue Reading ...

USD/JPY key levels to watch ahead of NFP

Updated  Oct 3, 2014 8:10:00 AM

So, the nonfarm payrolls report is due in less than half an hour and the market is expecting a 215,000 rise in the number of jobs gained in September with the unemployment rate seen unchanged at 6.1%. My colleagues Matt Weller and Neal Gilbert have already prepared their usual NFP preview and forecasts HERE – definitely worth a read. As they mention in their reports, the USD/JPY has one of the most reliable reactions  [...] Continue Reading ...

UK update: US CPI could determine the pound’s next move

Updated  Jan 13, 2015 6:10:00 AM

If you think that the UK is in a deflationary spiral, then look to Greece to get a sense of what true deflation looks like. UK headline CPI fell to a mere 0.5% annual rate last month, half the rate that it was in November. When prices fall at this pace it is bad news, but the UK could be getting off lightly. In Greece prices are falling at a 2.6% annualised rate as the  [...] Continue Reading ...

UK employment data: a tiny something to get excited about

Updated  Nov 12, 2014 6:50:00 AM

For the first time since 2009, UK wage packets are above inflation. Although wage growth (ex-bonuses) are a paltry 1.3%, inflation is falling at a fast enough rate for customers to finally break just about even. After years of high inflation and falling wages we could be at a sweet spot for the Bank of England. Falling CPI at the same time that wages are finally rising on the back of a tightening labour  [...] Continue Reading ...

September Month-End Model Favors Slight USD Strength

Updated  Sep 29, 2014 8:30:00 AM

Background: Traders often discuss how ‘month end’ flows may impact a currency or a currency pair during the last few day(s) of the month. These flows are caused by global portfolio managers rebalancing their existing currency hedges. If the value of one country’s equity and bond markets increases, these money managers typically look to sell or hedge their elevated risk in that country’s currency and rebalance their exposure back to an underperforming country’s currency. The  [...] Continue Reading ...

Scottish independence: GBP volatility ahoy!

Updated  Sep 8, 2014 9:55:00 AM

The market is in panic mode at the start of a fresh week after the latest poll ahead of the Scottish referendum put the yes campaign (who wants independence) in the lead for the first time since the campaign began. Not even the announcement that another Royal baby is on the way could bury this news. After basically having it in the bag since the beginning, the no campaign has blown its comfortable lead; so  [...] Continue Reading ...

Scotland: is GBP too eager to price in a No victory?

Updated  Sep 18, 2014 12:20:00 PM

The pound has climbed to a 2 week high and with only a few hours of voting for the Scottish referendum left the market seems happy to price in a victory for the No camp. We should find out in the early hours whether or not the market is right to be so optimistic at this early stage. Two things have boosted expectations, firstly the last poll before the vote that showed the No camp  [...] Continue Reading ...

Scotland votes No, what now?

Updated  Sep 19, 2014 2:30:00 AM

In the end, the referendum result ended up being a bigger win for the No camp than the late polls had predicted. The Yes campaign had gathered momentum in the last two weeks, but it burnt itself out by polling day. The final outcome was 55% for the No camp to 45% to the Yes camp. Sterling has had a good night and UK equity futures point to a 1% increase when European markets open.  [...] Continue Reading ...

Re-cap: Autumn Statement: Osborne turns Scrooge as tax take declines

Updated  Dec 3, 2014 4:45:00 AM

Today is Osborne’s big day, if you missed this from earlier this week, get our take on what to expect and the potential impact on UK markets below.   The Autumn  statement ahead of a General Election is usually a treasure trove of giveaways as Chancellors’ desperately do their bit to woo the electorate. However, this Wednesday at approx. 1230 GMT/ 0730 ET when UK Chancellor George Osborne takes to the stage at the House of  [...] Continue Reading ...

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