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Research Results

Results for 'GBP/USD'

61 articles with this tag name

Will This Week’s Data Take GBPUSD to a New 14-Month Low?

Updated  Nov 5, 2014 1:00:00 PM

The US elections are now behind us, and as widely anticipated, Republicans have solidified their lead in the House of Representatives and seized control of the Senate. For the next two years, the legislative branch of the government will be controlled by the Republican majority, whereas the executive branch (President) is Democratic. While the Republicans’ strong performance may lead to some progress on trade and energy policies among others, the gridlock that has ensnared Washington  [...] Continue Reading ...

Will the BOE admit they got it wrong again?

Updated  Nov 11, 2014 2:55:00 PM

On Wednesday 12th November the Bank of England will deliver its final Inflation Report of the year, and all eyes will be on potential changes to the growth and inflation forecasts. Forecast revisions In the August report the BOE expected GDP of 3.5% for this year, 3.1% for 2015 and 2.6% in 2016. However, after a weaker than expected Q3 reading for UK GDP of 0.7%, versus BOE forecasts of 0.9%, and some  [...] Continue Reading ...

What to expect from the BOE’s Inflation Report

Updated  Aug 12, 2014 7:20:00 AM

There is a double whammy of event risk for the UK on Wednesday. First up the employment data for June and July is released at 0930 BST/ 0430 ET, then one hour later Mark Carney will deliver the third Bank of England Inflation Report of 2014. The latter could give the market another steer on when to expect interest rates to rise. The former will be important to see if the labour market can continue  [...] Continue Reading ...

USD/JPY key levels to watch ahead of NFP

Updated  Oct 3, 2014 8:10:00 AM

So, the nonfarm payrolls report is due in less than half an hour and the market is expecting a 215,000 rise in the number of jobs gained in September with the unemployment rate seen unchanged at 6.1%. My colleagues Matt Weller and Neal Gilbert have already prepared their usual NFP preview and forecasts HERE – definitely worth a read. As they mention in their reports, the USD/JPY has one of the most reliable reactions  [...] Continue Reading ...

USD Bulls on Parade!

Updated  Jul 29, 2014 1:45:00 PM

Without a doubt, the defining theme for the month of July has been the greenback’s rampage higher. The USD index, which represents the value of the US Dollar against a weighted basket of the world’s most important currencies, rose from 79.75 at the start of the month to 81.25; while a roughly 2% move over the course of month may not sound particularly impressive, the broad-based rally has taken the dollar index to its highest  [...] Continue Reading ...

US Economy Sprinting to the 2014 Finish Line While Fed Tries to Catch Up

Updated  Jul 29, 2014 3:00:00 PM

** I originally published this piece as a Mid-Year Update for the US Economy at last week, but wanted to republish it here for anyone who may have missed it, especially with so many important economic reports coming out over the next 24 hours! ** If we think of 2014 as a track race, the US economy undoubtedly stumbled out of the starting blocks to begin the year. Heading into January, traders and  [...] Continue Reading ...

UK employment data: a tiny something to get excited about

Updated  Nov 12, 2014 6:50:00 AM

For the first time since 2009, UK wage packets are above inflation. Although wage growth (ex-bonuses) are a paltry 1.3%, inflation is falling at a fast enough rate for customers to finally break just about even. After years of high inflation and falling wages we could be at a sweet spot for the Bank of England. Falling CPI at the same time that wages are finally rising on the back of a tightening labour  [...] Continue Reading ...

UK economic rebound fails to excite the markets

Updated  Jul 25, 2014 6:20:00 AM

This morning we had confirmation of another solid quarter of growth for the UK. Q2 GDP rose by 0.8%, the same pace at Q1. This is encouraging as there were plenty of headwinds to knock the economy off course, including geopolitical fears, rising expectations of a UK interest rate increase and a surge in the pound. Our annual rate of growth is now 3.1%, up from 3% in Q1. To put this in some  [...] Continue Reading ...

September Month-End Model Favors Slight USD Strength

Updated  Sep 29, 2014 8:30:00 AM

Background: Traders often discuss how ‘month end’ flows may impact a currency or a currency pair during the last few day(s) of the month. These flows are caused by global portfolio managers rebalancing their existing currency hedges. If the value of one country’s equity and bond markets increases, these money managers typically look to sell or hedge their elevated risk in that country’s currency and rebalance their exposure back to an underperforming country’s currency. The  [...] Continue Reading ...

Scottish independence: GBP volatility ahoy!

Updated  Sep 8, 2014 9:55:00 AM

The market is in panic mode at the start of a fresh week after the latest poll ahead of the Scottish referendum put the yes campaign (who wants independence) in the lead for the first time since the campaign began. Not even the announcement that another Royal baby is on the way could bury this news. After basically having it in the bag since the beginning, the no campaign has blown its comfortable lead; so  [...] Continue Reading ...

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