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Research Results

Results for 'BOE'

48 articles with this tag name

BOE minutes back up Carney, but sterling takes a knock

Updated -  Jun 18, 2014 6:50:00 AM


After BOE Governor Mark Carney’s shift to a more hawkish stance on interest rate policy, announced during his speech at the Mansion House last week, the minutes of the June meeting were always going to be under scrutiny. However, even though the minutes did suggest that the shift to a more hawkish stance was a multi-lateral event, the minutes were not hawkish enough for the FX market and the pound is now the weakest performer  [...] Continue Reading


Crude concerns and the Carney effect still dominate the markets

Updated -  Jun 16, 2014 8:10:00 AM


After last week’s volatility, we are starting to wonder if “sell in May and go away” could be turned on its head and instead things could get more interesting this summer. A couple of themes appear to be developing, which could determine the direction of markets in the coming months:   1, Crude concerns: While the market has been able to shrug off geopolitical risks for most of this year, a continuous drip-feed of concern  [...] Continue Reading


Tough Luck for North America

Updated -  Jun 13, 2014 10:59:29 AM


*** Check out our new video series on YouTube called “The Lowdown” for more daily content! *** The triskaidekaphobic among us are probably pointing at their trading screens yelling “SEEEEEE!?!?!” with wide grins and manic giggles this morning as the first half of the North American trading session brought absolutely no luck to economic releases.  Both the US and Canada missed consensus on every single important figure, going 0 for 6 in the process.   [...] Continue Reading


Retail Sales Me Not

Updated -  Jun 12, 2014 11:37:21 AM


*** Check out our new video series on YouTube called “The Lowdown” for more daily content! *** The North American trading session finally had an economic release worthy of attention this morning in the form of Retail Sales after a week full of non-events, but in the end, it failed to provide the hype that many may have been seeking.  On expectations of a 0.5% bump, Retail Sales only rose 0.3%, but last month’s  [...] Continue Reading


EURUSD – Achieves ATR target, may lead to subdued Euro price action on Friday

Updated -  May 15, 2014 5:25:00 PM


Just a quick update as EURUSD achieved the intraday Average True Range (ATR) intraday target of 1.3650 before rebounding higher. As demonstrated in the chart below, EURUSD peaked between 2:30-3am ET, and then broke below the range shortly thereafter. Interestingly, this move lower was already predicted by a bearish moving average signal as the 13-sma was below the 144 & 169 ema’s. Additionally, RSI continued to find resistance near the key 65 level and break  [...] Continue Reading


GBPUSD: 1.70 looks elusive as Carney shoots down pound

Updated -  May 14, 2014 12:20:00 PM


The Cable came under increased pressure following the publication of the Bank of England’s Inflation Report and Mark Carney’s speech. My colleague Kathleen Brooks has already covered the inflation report in depth here. The key takeaway point was that the central bank chief sounded rather dovish and as expected talked down sterling. Earlier this morning, we had already seen some solid UK jobs data, although the pound had reacted negatively as the numbers were  [...] Continue Reading


Carney hits the target with Inflation Report

Updated -  May 14, 2014 7:30:00 AM


During his first 10 months as Bank of England governor the jury has been out on Mark Carney, do we, or don’t we like him? He’s certainly not commanded the affection of Mervyn King, however things could be changing. Carney scored a PR goal at the May Inflation Report and may have worked his way into the UK public’s heart by bringing back the sporting analogy! Favoured by Sir Mervyn, who was fond of  [...] Continue Reading


Paltry wage growth weighs on the pound

Updated -  May 14, 2014 4:50:00 AM


The market is getting used to better than expected economic news out of the UK, which may be one reason why the pound sold off even though the UK’s unemployment rate for March fell to its lowest level since early 2009. The good news This morning’s labour market data showed a 25.1k fall in the number of people claiming jobless benefits, a 0.1% drop in the unemployment rate, a 283k increase in the  [...] Continue Reading


(G)rate expectations: Bank of England Inflation Report preview

Updated -  May 13, 2014 12:20:00 PM


On Wednesday 14th May the Bank of England will present its second Inflation Report of the year. The Report will include the latest growth and inflation forecasts, the market will also be looking out for the BOE’s thoughts on the timing of rate increases, the housing market and the strength of sterling. On balance we think that the Bank of England Governor will suggest that the BOE is in no hurry to raise interest  [...] Continue Reading


EURGBP breaks noted 0.8160/70 support…watching key events over next 72-hours

Updated -  May 12, 2014 2:45:00 PM


A few weeks ago we made the case for a potential test of the 2014 low around 0.8160, which also saw the 61.8% retracement (of the 2012-13 rally) & Oct. 2012 high, namely based upon our proprietary model as well as possibly diverging monetary policies in the 2H of 2014 – With the ECB likely to be more dovish and the BoE possibly more hawkish. Earlier today this finally materialized as EURGBP broke to a  [...] Continue Reading


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