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Research Results

Results for 'EUR/CHF'

10 articles with this tag name

EURCHF: Knocking on the SNB’s Front Door at 1.20 Floor Street

Updated -  Nov 11, 2014 8:25:00 AM

While I’ve had November 30th marked in my calendar for months now (it’s my wedding anniversary), FX traders from around the globe are starting to place a big red “X” on the day. That’s because Switzerland’s population will vote on a key referendum that day, with potentially huge implications for global markets: Swiss voters will decide whether the Swiss National Bank should increase its holdings of gold from 8% of FX reserves currently to 20%.  [...] Continue Reading

Dovish Draghi Unlikely to Help EURCHF Bounce from 2-Year Low

Updated -  Nov 6, 2014 9:10:00 AM

Surprising no one, the ECB chose to leave its main interest rate unchanged in its November policy meeting, but the fireworks really started when ECB President Draghi took the stage for his press conference. Amidst rumors of discord within the ECB, Mario Draghi struck a firm dovish tone. In particular, two statements from his prepared remarks stood out: 1)      “[The ECB’s] balance sheet is expected to move towards the dimensions it had at the  [...] Continue Reading

EUR/CHF: Floored Again

Updated -  Oct 24, 2014 10:49:47 AM

The North American trading session activity has been rather light so far as the lack of US data releases and the end to a busy week is keeping a lot of the usual liquidity at bay.  The one nugget of information that was released wasn’t all that encouraging for the US housing market though as New Home Sales failed to live up to expectations of 470k with a 467k print.  “That’s not that bad” is  [...] Continue Reading

EURCHF: Breakout from 16-Month Bear Trend Line Portends Further Strength

Updated -  Oct 9, 2014 3:50:00 PM

While volatility has finally picked up in the US dollar and global equities, there are still some pockets of the market that haven’t gone haywire (yet). One of the traditional havens for low volatility conditions, the EURCHF, remains relatively unperturbed with the big moves elsewhere. Thus far, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has refused to follow the European Central Bank (ECB) down the “negative interest rate rabbit hole.” Instead of increasing selling pressure on EURCHF,  [...] Continue Reading

EURCHF Surges to 1.2115 Resistance as SNB Considers Going Negative

Updated -  Sep 10, 2014 2:00:00 PM

On Monday, we shared our fundamental and technical outlook on EURCHF, concluding that, “...the SNB may eventually be forced to enact further rate cuts or nontraditional monetary policy measures” to stave off deflationary pressures and that the pair may bounce to converging resistance at 1.2115 (see “EURCHF: The SNB Remains Resolute about 1.20 Floor” below for more). As it turns out, SNB comments and the price action over the last 48 hours have borne out  [...] Continue Reading

EURCHF: will the SNB defend the 1.20 peg?

Updated -  Aug 27, 2014 10:05:00 AM

Since the Swiss National Bank (SNB) imposed its peg in EUR/CHF, this cross has only traded below 1.20 a handful of times, and each time it has bounced off this important level of support. In the three years that the peg has been in place, the market hasn’t tested the SNB’s resolve with any gusto. The market has seemed to accept that you don’t push EUR/CHF below 1.20, otherwise the SNB will act and you  [...] Continue Reading

EURCHF Pressing 20-Month Lows, But 1.20 Floor Remains Firm

Updated -  Aug 19, 2014 8:40:00 AM

Volatility in EURCHF has been extremely compressed over the past few years, so we wouldn’t have blamed any traders for avoiding opening this note altogether. For those who have made it this far though, the recent price action is presenting a rare trading opportunity in the typically quiet pair. At the end of last week, EURCHF ticked down below the 1.2100 handle for the first time since January 2013. The primary catalyst for this  [...] Continue Reading

Research Note: December ECB Policy Decision

Updated -  Dec 7, 2011 3:15:00 PM

December ECB Policy Decision Summary Outlook: On Thursday, December 8 at 0745ET/1245GMT the ECB is expected to cut rates 25 bps to 1.00%, according to the vast majority of forecasts in Bloomberg surveys. A handful of estimates are split between a steady 1.25% rate and a 50 bp cut to 0.75%. We think the ECB will cut by 25 bps, but also that there is a greater potential for 50 bps than the surveys suggest.  [...] Continue Reading

Weekly Strategy-Buying EUR/CHF on SNB raising the floor, possible negative rates

Updated -  Dec 1, 2011 5:30:00 PM

The Swiss government today gave indications it might adopt negative interest rates to assist the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in its efforts to weaken the Swiss franc (CHF). Negative rates, last used in the 1980's, would impose a cost on anyone holding CHF deposits or long-CHF FX positions, likely provoking an exodus from the currency. Additionally, there has been repeated talk in recent weeks that the SNB may announce it is raising the floor in  [...] Continue Reading

Weekly Strategy-Selling EUR/CHF on EU Summit Relief Rally

Updated -  Jul 21, 2011 3:30:00 PM

Weekly Strategy update Aug 2, 2011 1200 ET: EUR/CHF has dropped below 1.10 and nearly reached the bear flag measured move objective around 1.0910/20... At this stage we would suggest taking profit on the remaining 50% short established at an average rate of 1.1805. At the minimum, stops should be lowered to 1.1060 to lock in the gains. Short-term charts look to show a potential descending wedge formation, which usually terminates with a break higher.  [...] Continue Reading


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