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Research Results

Results for 'USD/JPY'

60 articles with this tag name

Yen Technical Outlook: More Yen Selling On Tap for 2015?

Updated -  Dec 16, 2014 2:50:00 PM

As we look back at 2014, one of the biggest forex trading themes of the year was the same as 2013: the Japanese yen consolidated for most of the year before falling sharply into the end of the year. Now, traders are once again wondering whether the recent weakness in yen is here to stay or whether Japan’s currency is due for another dull sideways period in 2015. To tackle that question, we look at  [...] Continue Reading

Japan round-up: Where will the yen go now?

Updated -  Dec 15, 2014 7:45:00 AM

It was a big weekend for Japan with a general election and the Q4 Tankan index. Incumbent PM Abe won a very comfortable majority, which means that Abenomics will remain in play for the next few years until his term expires. The Tankan index was weaker than expected, it came in at 12, rather than the 13 expected. However, capex spending was higher, up 8.9%, vs. expectations of an 8.1% increase. The yen was  [...] Continue Reading

Butter Production in Bangladesh, USDJPY, and the S&P 500

Updated -  Dec 10, 2014 9:10:00 AM

Butter Production in Bangladesh Back in 1995, Caltech’s Dr. David J. Leinweber published a research paper showing three simple variables that were highly correlated (r=.99) with the return on the S&P 500 stock market index over the last 10 years. Surely, if stock market returns could be forecasted with such accuracy, anyone who read the paper (which is freely available here) would quickly become billionaires with their own private islands! What were the  [...] Continue Reading

Research Note: November NFP Prep

Updated -  Dec 4, 2014 3:20:00 PM

By: Matt Weller, CMT, Senior Technical Analyst The November Non-Farm Payroll report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 ET (13:30 GMT), with expectations centered on a headline print of around 231k new jobs. My NFP proprietary model suggests that the NFP report will print slightly below expectations,with leading indicators suggesting a November headline NFP reading of 213k. The model has been historically reliable, showing a correlation coefficient of .90 with the unrevised NFP headline figure  [...] Continue Reading

USD/JPY: 4 Reasons 120 Is Intriguing

Updated -  Dec 3, 2014 10:51:59 AM

It has been no secret lately that doing anything other than buying Japanese Yen crosses over the past few months has been tantamount to financial suicide.  The USD/JPY in particular has surged from around 105 to its current almost-120 level since just mid-October with nary a pause for breath in its advance.  However, as we approach the psychologically significant 120 level, there are some reasons that traders may want to look at this level with  [...] Continue Reading

More soft Japanese economic data sinks the yen

Updated -  Nov 27, 2014 9:37:38 PM

USDJPY jumped through 118.00 on the back of soft Japanese economic indicators and falling oil prices that support the case for even more monetary easing from the Bank of Japan in the second half of 2015. The market already had its doubts before the release of today’s data about the ability of the BoJ’s fresh stimulus to boost inflation to the bank’s 2% target, and October’s inflation and other economic figures have likely turned even  [...] Continue Reading

November Month-End Model Signals Potential USD Weakness

Updated -  Nov 26, 2014 11:15:00 AM

Background: Traders often discuss how ‘month end’ flows may impact a currency or a currency pair during the last few day(s) of the month. These flows are caused by global portfolio managers rebalancing their existing currency hedges. If the value of one country’s equity and bond markets increases, these fund managers typically look to sell or hedge their elevated risk in that country’s currency and rebalance their exposure back to an underperforming country’s currency. The  [...] Continue Reading

USDJPY: Strong GDP Fails to Invigorate Buck Bulls

Updated -  Nov 25, 2014 9:10:00 AM

To avoid conflicts with Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday in the US, a week’s worth of US economic data is being released over just today and tomorrow’s trading sessions. This veritable raft of US data includes high-impact releases like Preliminary GDP (just released); the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey (later today); and US Durable Goods Orders, Initial Unemployment Claims, Personal Spending and Income data, Chicago PMI, New  [...] Continue Reading

The yen’s unexpected reaction to the BoJ’s minutes from October 31 which sent JPY tumbling

Updated -  Nov 24, 2014 11:10:03 PM

There is clearly some disagreement within the BoJ about the use of extreme QE to spur consumer price growth. The BoJ’s meeting in the last week of October ended with the bank increasing its annual purchases of government debt to 80 trillion yen from 50 trillion and changing what it purchases to include EFTs tied to the JPX-Nikkei 400, but it was a very tightly contested decision. Only five of the nine members on the  [...] Continue Reading

Five minute preview: FOMC minutes – October meeting

Updated -  Nov 19, 2014 12:10:00 PM

In less than 2 hours the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its last meeting from 28/29th October. While all Fed communication is worth watching out for, these minutes are imbued with extra significance, as the Fed ended its QE programme last month. The statement released with the conclusion of the Fed meeting on 29th October was upbeat about the outlook for the labour market, and it did not include too many concerns  [...] Continue Reading

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