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Research Results

Results for 'USD/JPY'

51 articles with this tag name

Japan is dangerously close to deflationary territory

Updated -  Mar 27, 2015 12:30:25 AM


Core consumer price growth hit 0% during February in Japan once the effects of a higher sales tax are taken out. Headline consumer prices rose 2.2% y/y as expected but the core CPI rose 2.0% y/y, missing an expected 2.1% increase and slower than a 2.2% gain January (the BoJ estimates that a higher consumption tax adds around 2.0% to core inflation). Falling oil prices and lacklustre domestic demand are the main reasons for  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY: as the dollar sells off, watch the cloud

Updated -  Mar 26, 2015 5:30:00 AM


It looks like a combination of weaker US economic data; tensions in the Middle East and a sharp decline in the dollar index have started to bite USDJPY, which has fallen below 118.50 on Thursday. It is also coming up to fiscal year end in Japan, which can have a positive impact on the yen. Key support ahead The biggest short –term risk to this pair from a technical perspective is a break  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY: decision time…

Updated -  Mar 25, 2015 9:50:35 PM


It has been an interesting month for USDJPY, with the pair bouncing off a key resistance zone just above 122.00 before sliding towards channel support. It’s now decision time for USDJPY; a break here could spark a larger sell-off. Is this the end of its upward trend? There are some technical signals that may highlight some underlying weakness in price. There is a bearish divergence between price and RSI and there was recently a  [...] Continue Reading


FOMC Instant Reaction: Fed Removes Explicit “Patient” Pledge, Implies Patience Anyway

Updated -  Mar 18, 2015 2:30:00 PM


The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee just concluded their March policy meeting and it certainly gave traders plenty to chew over heading into Q2. As we noted in our FOMC preview, traders were hyper-focused on whether the central bank would remove its “patient” pledge (before raising interest rates) and on that front, the Fed did not disappoint. As most analysts expected, Yellen and company removed the “patient” terminology; to use a gardening analogy, it  [...] Continue Reading


BOJ retains massive stimulus program, accepts lower inflation outlook

Updated -  Mar 17, 2015 12:12:58 AM


The BoJ retained its plan to increase the monetary base by 80 trillion yen a year as expected. The bank also maintained its optimistic view on Japan’s economic recovery, but it lowered its inflation forecasts for the short-term. This acceptance of soft inflation for time being reduces the likelihood that the bank will introduce more stimulus in near-term. The BoJ stated that “annual consumer inflation is seen moving around zero percent for the time being  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY: A Breakout Deferred?

Updated -  Mar 13, 2015 9:30:00 AM


It’s been a relatively slow start to the last trading of the week. From a price action perspective, the dollar is gaining some ground against both the euro and pound while WTI has fallen to a new six-week low near 46.00. Meanwhile, today’s economic data has been disappointing for global growth optimists. The US February Producer Price Index (PPI) was abysmal, printing at -0.5% against a 0.3% gain expected. This marked the biggest miss  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY-Nikkei Correlation Suggests 12.5-Year High at 124.00 in Play

Updated -  Mar 10, 2015 9:10:00 AM


It’s the dollar’s world; we all just live in it. The US dollar tagged a new 12-year high at 98.50 in today’s European session on the continued positive afterglow from Friday’s NFP report and growing concerns about the impact of Greece’s struggles on the wider Eurozone economy. As we noted in our NFP Instant reaction report, the jobs report “only strengthen[s] the “King Dollar” trade heading into the Federal Reserve’s highly-anticipated March monetary  [...] Continue Reading


NFP Instant Reaction: Not Perfect, but Will it be Good Enough for Fed?

Updated -  Mar 6, 2015 9:00:00 AM


After last month’s “perfect” NFP report, hopes were high heading into the United States’ marquee labor market release. As if for dramatic effect, the report was delayed by around a minute, and there were some mixed signals to digest when it did come out, but the big takeaway is that the US labor market recovery remains on track and the possibility of a June rate hike by the Federal Reserve remains definitively on the  [...] Continue Reading


Research Note: Februrary NFP Prep

Updated -  Mar 5, 2015 3:00:00 PM


By: Matt Weller, CMT, Senior Technical Analyst The February Non-Farm Payroll report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 ET (13:30 GMT), with expectations centered on a headline reading of 241k. My model suggests that the report could print a tick below these expectations,with leading indicators suggesting a February headline NFP reading of 220K. The model has been historically reliable, showing a correlation coefficient of .90 with the unrevised NFP headline figure dating back to 2001  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY: Could Friday’s NFP Report Interrupt the Tranquil Trading Seas?

Updated -  Mar 4, 2015 8:55:00 AM


The data-heavy portion of the week has officially kicked off, and today’s economic figures have confirmed some of the recent trends we’ve been highlighting. As my colleague Chris Tedder noted earlier today, Australian GDP came out a tick weaker than expected, though the Australian dollar remains resilient and is actually trading higher than it was prior to the release. Meanwhile European data was mixed, with Service PMI figures coming in roughly in-line with  [...] Continue Reading


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