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Research Results

Results for 'USD/JPY'

70 articles with this tag name

USDJPY makes a run for it

Updated -  Jul 30, 2014 2:30:23 AM

A string of disappointing Japanese economic data and widespread US dollar strength has helped to push USDJPY through an important resistance line. Strong US economic data is helping to fuel dollar strength across the board as the market tightens its expectations on when the Fed will begin hiking interest rates (eyes on tonight’s US GDP data and FOMC statement; no press conference by Yellen). Meanwhile, soft economic figures out of Japan are casting doubt over  [...] Continue Reading

US Economy Sprinting to the 2014 Finish Line While Fed Tries to Catch Up

Updated -  Jul 29, 2014 3:00:00 PM

** I originally published this piece as a Mid-Year Update for the US Economy at last week, but wanted to republish it here for anyone who may have missed it, especially with so many important economic reports coming out over the next 24 hours! ** If we think of 2014 as a track race, the US economy undoubtedly stumbled out of the starting blocks to begin the year. Heading into January, traders and  [...] Continue Reading

USD Bulls on Parade!

Updated -  Jul 29, 2014 1:45:00 PM

Without a doubt, the defining theme for the month of July has been the greenback’s rampage higher. The USD index, which represents the value of the US Dollar against a weighted basket of the world’s most important currencies, rose from 79.75 at the start of the month to 81.25; while a roughly 2% move over the course of month may not sound particularly impressive, the broad-based rally has taken the dollar index to its highest  [...] Continue Reading

Month-End FX Rebalancing May Reflect July’s Price Action: Lackluster

Updated -  Jul 29, 2014 9:20:00 AM

Background: Traders often discuss how ‘month end’ flows may impact a currency or a currency pair during the last few day(s) of the month. These flows are caused by global portfolio managers rebalancing their existing currency hedges. If the value of one country’s equity and bond markets increases, these money managers typically look to sell or hedge their elevated risk in that country’s currency and rebalance their exposure back to an underperforming country’s currency. The  [...] Continue Reading

Time for USDJPY Traders to Wake Up?

Updated -  Jul 23, 2014 1:05:00 PM

Out of all the major currency pairs, the USDJPY has undoubtedly been one of the dullest thus far this year. The pair has been trapped within a tight range from roughly 101.00 to 104.00 since mid-January, driving the average weekly range (ATR) to levels not seen since before the introduction of Abenomics in Q3 2012. Just when traders thought it couldn’t get any worse, bears began stepping in at lower and lower levels, and starting  [...] Continue Reading

USDJPY: BOJ a Dud, but Yellen Could Shake Things Up

Updated -  Jul 15, 2014 8:50:00 AM

Overnight, the Bank of Japan released its regular Monetary Policy Statement, and like the past few meetings, the event passed without a whisper of volatility in the USDJPY. To recap, the central bank decided to maintain its Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) program at current levels. On the whole, the central bankers’ inflation expectations ticked modestly higher, with core inflation now expected to print in the 2% range in both FY2015 and FY2016. Meanwhile, BOJ  [...] Continue Reading

BoJ Preview: Are We There Yet?

Updated -  Jul 14, 2014 2:50:09 PM

*** Check out our new video series on YouTube called “The Lowdown” for more daily content! *** The Bank of Japan will be making a very important monetary policy decision this evening that could have wide ranging effects in not only currency pairs that have the JPY moniker attached to them, but also correlated equity markets the world over.  While many analysts believe BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his brethren will wait for more  [...] Continue Reading

USDJPY: Time to play catch up with the yield spread?

Updated -  Jul 9, 2014 5:40:00 AM

The markets are mostly comatose today as we wait for the FOMC minutes this afternoon. Until then we think that tight ranges will prevail. While it is always a tough call to predict anything that comes out of the Fed, we think that, on balance, the message could be less dovish than recent statements. We think the minutes could trike a more neutral tone compared with Yellen’s dovish press conference last month, which may  [...] Continue Reading

USDJPY: Bullish Pattern Points to Near-Term Bounce

Updated -  Jul 7, 2014 2:25:00 PM

A short-term technical pattern on USDJPY just completed, so we’ll be brief. The USDJPY has carved out a clear Bullish Gartley “222” pattern over the past few days. For the uninitiated, this geometric pattern is named after the author (H.M. Gartley) and page number (222) of the first book to describe it (Profits in the Stock Market) all the way back in 1935. In essence, it helps traders identify higher-probability turning points in the market  [...] Continue Reading

Research Note: June NFP Prep

Updated -  Jul 2, 2014 2:55:56 PM

By: Neal Gilbert, Senior Market Analyst This month our Non-Farm Payroll model is calling for a healthy 268k increase in jobs in June 2014, and if achieved would likely be a welcome reprieve for those who have been expecting USD strength recently.  Of course, this NFP release is a little strange considering the timing of the release on a Thursday at the same time as the European Central Bank’s press conference with President Mario Draghi,  [...] Continue Reading

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