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Research Results

Results for 'USD/JPY'

62 articles with this tag name

USDJPY Goes Parabolic – Could We See 1.10 Next Week?

Updated -  Sep 18, 2014 8:50:00 AM


Just yesterday, we asked whether a “Fed-Fueled Fire” could drive USDJPY to a new 6-year high above 107.40 (see below for more). As it turns out, the Fed dumped a proverbial gallon of lighter fluid on the fire, and the ensuing bullish inferno has propelled USDJPY more than 150 pips higher. With the rally going full-on parabolic as we go to press, traders are wondering how far USDJPY could rise before taking a breather.  [...] Continue Reading


FOMC Preview: the Fed’s fear factor

Updated -  Sep 16, 2014 9:30:00 AM


This Wednesday sees the culmination of the FOMC’s latest 2-day meeting. At 1900 BST/ 1400 ET the market will receive the FOMC rate decision, the decision on tapering, the latest statement including the latest “dot plot” which includes FOMC members’ forecast for interest rates, and, last but not least, a press conference by Fed Governor Janet Yellen. This meeting comes at a delicate time for Fed policy, its QE 3 programme is due to  [...] Continue Reading


If 2012 Template Holds, USDJPY Rally May Be Just Getting Started

Updated -  Sep 11, 2014 9:10:00 AM


Despite a lack of top-tier economic data out of either the US or Japan this week, USDJPY has rallied nearly 200 pips to trade at a new 6-year high above 107.00. From a fundamental perspective, this week’s catalysts (including a modest rise in US treasury yields and a slight miss in Japanese Machinery Orders) can hardly explain the big move. Instead, the rally appears to be more technically-driven, and it closely mirrors the price action  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY: Japan’s Q2 GDP revised lower

Updated -  Sep 7, 2014 8:57:34 PM


In yet another blow for Abenomics, Japan’s Q2 GDP was revised to an annualised fall of 7.1% from 6.8% in the preliminary estimate. Economists were expecting a downwards revision given recent weakness in Q2 economic data, but only to 7.0%.This marks the worst period for the economy since the financial crisis - even worse than during the immediate aftermath of 2011’s devastating earthquake. During last quarter GDP fell a seasonally adjusted 1.8%, matching estimates  [...] Continue Reading


Research Note: August NFP Prep

Updated -  Sep 4, 2014 3:25:00 PM


The August Non-Farm Payroll report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 ET (13:30 GMT), with expectations centered on a headline print of around 226k new jobs. My NFP proprietary model suggests that the NFP report will print roughly in line with expectations,with leading indicators suggesting an August headline NFP reading of 220k. The model has been historically reliable, showing a correlation coefficient of .90 with the unrevised NFP headline figure dating back to 2001 (1.0  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY: Don’t forget about jobs data…

Updated -  Sep 4, 2014 6:50:00 AM


The focus may be firmly on the ECB today, but 15 minutes before ECB President Draghi’s monthly press conference we will get the first releases of critical US jobs data. At 1315 BST/ 0815 ET we get US ADP private sector payrolls data, then at 1310 BST/ 0830 ET we get jobless claims data for last week. The market is looking for a robust reading of ADP for August, and is expecting 220k, up  [...] Continue Reading


USD/JPY rallies into major resistance zone ahead of US data

Updated -  Sep 2, 2014 7:50:00 AM


The USD/JPY has extended its gains and has already touched the key 105.00 level this morning. However with this being an NFP week, the bulls would do well to hold their ground around the current levels until the employment data is out of the way on Friday. That being said, the path of least resistance is clearly to the upside and so further gains prior to the jobs data would not be entirely surprising to  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY: Data-Packed Last 48 Hours of the Week to Lead to a Triangle Breakout

Updated -  Aug 27, 2014 2:00:00 PM


After rocketing 175 pips higher last week, USDJPY has been absolutely anemic this week. After gapping higher to trade at a new 7-month high above 104.12, rates dipped down to fill the gap on Monday and have since oscillated with 35 pips of the 104.00 handle. The recent trading conditions have undoubtedly been lackluster, but USDJPY traders should not lose faith yet; a busy economic calendar and developing technical pattern suggest volatility should return  [...] Continue Reading


FX: is volatility about to come back to the FX market?

Updated -  Aug 26, 2014 10:50:00 AM


FX volatility has fallen to record lows in recent months, which is one reason why trading conditions have been particularly boring, but could this be about to change? Listening to some of the speeches from Jackson Hole at the weekend, the annual conference of central bankers, monetary policy could be about to move down divergent paths in the coming months, and there could be implications for the FX market.   On the one side you  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY gaps higher; Nikkei rallies

Updated -  Aug 25, 2014 1:23:52 AM


A combination of yen weakness and US dollar strength has pushed USDJPY even higher. As we outlined this morning, the weekend’s events in Jackson Hole sent investors flocking to the USD and away from the yen. The ensuing yen weakness has helped to spark a rally in the Nikkei, with investors hoping that the lower exchange rate will breathe new life into Japan’s struggling export market. The sell-off in the yen was sparked by  [...] Continue Reading


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