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Research Results

Results for 'USD/JPY'

84 articles with this tag name

Time for USDJPY Traders to Wake Up?

Updated -  Jul 23, 2014 1:05:00 PM


Out of all the major currency pairs, the USDJPY has undoubtedly been one of the dullest thus far this year. The pair has been trapped within a tight range from roughly 101.00 to 104.00 since mid-January, driving the average weekly range (ATR) to levels not seen since before the introduction of Abenomics in Q3 2012. Just when traders thought it couldn’t get any worse, bears began stepping in at lower and lower levels, and starting  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY: BOJ a Dud, but Yellen Could Shake Things Up

Updated -  Jul 15, 2014 8:50:00 AM


Overnight, the Bank of Japan released its regular Monetary Policy Statement, and like the past few meetings, the event passed without a whisper of volatility in the USDJPY. To recap, the central bank decided to maintain its Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) program at current levels. On the whole, the central bankers’ inflation expectations ticked modestly higher, with core inflation now expected to print in the 2% range in both FY2015 and FY2016. Meanwhile, BOJ  [...] Continue Reading


BoJ Preview: Are We There Yet?

Updated -  Jul 14, 2014 2:50:09 PM


*** Check out our new video series on YouTube called “The Lowdown” for more daily content! *** The Bank of Japan will be making a very important monetary policy decision this evening that could have wide ranging effects in not only currency pairs that have the JPY moniker attached to them, but also correlated equity markets the world over.  While many analysts believe BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his brethren will wait for more  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY: Time to play catch up with the yield spread?

Updated -  Jul 9, 2014 5:40:00 AM


The markets are mostly comatose today as we wait for the FOMC minutes this afternoon. Until then we think that tight ranges will prevail. While it is always a tough call to predict anything that comes out of the Fed, we think that, on balance, the message could be less dovish than recent statements. We think the minutes could trike a more neutral tone compared with Yellen’s dovish press conference last month, which may  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY: Bullish Pattern Points to Near-Term Bounce

Updated -  Jul 7, 2014 2:25:00 PM


A short-term technical pattern on USDJPY just completed, so we’ll be brief. The USDJPY has carved out a clear Bullish Gartley “222” pattern over the past few days. For the uninitiated, this geometric pattern is named after the author (H.M. Gartley) and page number (222) of the first book to describe it (Profits in the Stock Market) all the way back in 1935. In essence, it helps traders identify higher-probability turning points in the market  [...] Continue Reading


Research Note: June NFP Prep

Updated -  Jul 2, 2014 2:55:56 PM


By: Neal Gilbert, Senior Market Analyst This month our Non-Farm Payroll model is calling for a healthy 268k increase in jobs in June 2014, and if achieved would likely be a welcome reprieve for those who have been expecting USD strength recently.  Of course, this NFP release is a little strange considering the timing of the release on a Thursday at the same time as the European Central Bank’s press conference with President Mario Draghi,  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY-Nikkei Correlation Favors USDJPY Rally

Updated -  Jul 1, 2014 2:20:00 PM


Historically, the performance of USDJPY has provided a reliable proxy for global equity markets and risk assets as a whole. This correlation makes sense: when traders are feeling more optimistic (high risk appetite), they tend to buy stocks and sell yen to fund carry trades in higher-yielding currencies, but when they are more pessimistic (risk averse), traders have to rewind these trades by buying back yen and selling equities. Beyond the general risk relationship,  [...] Continue Reading


Month in Review: June a Rough Month for USD

Updated -  Jul 1, 2014 8:30:00 AM


“What is past is prologue” - William Shakespeare As we move into July and the second half of 2014 (already!), we think it would be valuable to review the performance of some of the major currencies and markets that we regularly discuss. On a day-to-day basis, it’s easy to get caught up in each minor wiggle on a chart, but by taking a step back and reviewing a month’s performance on the whole, major trends  [...] Continue Reading


North American Wrap-up: We Believe Abenomics Will Win

Updated -  Jun 26, 2014 4:21:02 PM


*** Check out our new video series on YouTube called “The Lowdown” for more daily content! *** While office workers across the US were cheering wildly in their cubicles for Portugal to score goals while their team lost in the World Cup; North American markets were rather tame and stayed that way for a majority of the day.  US stock markets were down, but not alarmingly, and currency markets were much the same as  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY May Soon Awaken From its Slumber

Updated -  Jun 24, 2014 8:50:00 AM


The USDJPY has served as a perfect microcosm of the forex market as a whole over the past few weeks: volatility has gradually receded, causing the pair to consolidate in a tighter and tighter range and sapping the market’s patience. Now, traders have reached a state of apathy on the pair as today’s reaction to the announcement of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Third Arrow” shows. In today’s Asian session, Abe unveiled the second iteration of  [...] Continue Reading


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