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Research Results

Results for 'USD/JPY'

31 articles with this tag name

Japan falls into “recession,” USD/JPY bulls may target 13-year high around 125.00

Updated -  Nov 16, 2015 8:20:00 AM

It’s been a quiet start to the week as the world reflects on the horrific terrorist attack in Paris over the weekend. Our thoughts remain with all the families impacted by this weekend’s awful events, but the impact on markets has thus far been limited. USD/JPY initially gapped lower as traders bought the safe have yen, but a weaker-than-expected Japanese GDP report quickly drove the pair back higher. Japan’s Q3 Preliminary GDP reading game out  [...] Continue Reading

NFP Prep: A strong reading could make a December rate hike the Fed’s base case

Updated -  Nov 5, 2015 3:05:00 PM

The October Non-Farm Payroll report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 EST (13:30 GMT) with expectations centered on a headline print of 179k after last month’s disappointing 142k reading. My model suggests that the report could slightly exceed these expectations,with leading indicators suggesting an Octoberheadline NFP reading of 209K. The model has been historically reliable, showing a correlation coefficient of 0.90 with the unrevised NFP headline figure dating back to 2001 (1.0 would show a  [...] Continue Reading

USD/JPY: Finally poised for a breakout?

Updated -  Nov 4, 2015 10:10:00 AM

For USD/JPY traders, it’s been a particularly trying two and a half months. Since late August, the pair has carved out a tight 300-pip range between 118.50 and 121.50, never closing beyond this zone despite central bank decisions on both sides of the Pacific, a series of disappointing US jobs reports, and a raft of other economic data. Already today, traders have received the latest readings on the US labor market from ADP (+182k jobs  [...] Continue Reading

Mediocre GDP report keeps USD/JPY rangebound, BOJ on tap

Updated -  Oct 29, 2015 9:00:00 AM

Heading into this week, we suspected that today’s US Q3 GDP report could actually bemore market-moving than the more widely-watched Fed meeting. And though that outlook definitively did not play out as expected, the GDP report still provided plenty of new information for traders to digest over the coming weeks. On a headline basis, Q3 GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate, just below the 1.6% growth rate expected by economists. However, as experienced  [...] Continue Reading

Fed and BOJ Keep the Central Bank Party Rolling

Updated -  Oct 23, 2015 2:30:00 PM

Last week featured two relatively important central bank meetings, with both the Bank of Canada and the European Central bank coming off as relatively dovish relative to the market’s expectations. As we look ahead to central bank action in the coming week, the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan are looking increasingly likely to sing a similar tune. Focusing in the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday monetary policy meeting first, traders have low expectations of  [...] Continue Reading

USD/JPY: Trends within trends within trends

Updated -  Oct 19, 2015 8:40:00 AM

By far, the most common question I receive on twitter and in my weekly webinars is, “what’s the trend in XXX market?” While this line of questioning certainly represents an improvement over the blind I’ve-got-a-feeling-and-am-going-to-take-a-punt attitude that many new traders adopt, it is nonetheless an impossible question to answer. There is never one singular, exclusive trend in the market; the trend can only be defined relative to a certain timeframe. A clear example  [...] Continue Reading

USDJPY rejected just above 121… again

Updated -  Sep 27, 2015 8:51:18 PM

At the end of last week USDJPY may a valiant attempt to break through resistance around 121.00-40, but failed once more. It appears this celling will prove to be tough for price to break above given the uncertainty surrounding the US dollar’s outlook in the near-term and the safe haven attractiveness of the yen in these volatile markets. The US dollar juggling the notion of tighter interest rates in the US, as the Fed  [...] Continue Reading

S&P 500: YE(ar)N-ing for clarity

Updated -  Sep 25, 2015 3:15:00 PM

Almost exactly a month ago, we shared our view that, regardless of what market you’re trading, “We’re all USD/JPY traders now.” In that report, we noted that that USD/JPY has become “the de facto measure of risk appetite of late, leading to correlated moves in equities, commodities, bonds, and even other currency pairs.” Over the last four weeks, that dynamic has remained in play, with a 50-day USD/JPY-S&P 500 correlation coefficient of over 0.95.  [...] Continue Reading

USDJPY: waiting for a break…

Updated -  Sep 24, 2015 1:04:00 AM

It has been a fairly quiet session in Asia, although USDJPY was strengthened early in the session as the Nikkei came back online after three days on holiday. The Nikkei had some catching up to do, with the Nikkei 225 sinking over 2% in the morning session which resulted in a rally in the yen. Overall, USDJPY appears to be trapped in medium-term sideways wedge formation. The market is juggling the idea of tighter  [...] Continue Reading

FOMC Recap: When Hawks Cry

Updated -  Sep 17, 2015 3:30:00 PM

The inimitable US musician Prince (and yes, this was before he changed his stage name to a bizarre symbol , officially becoming “The Artist Formerly Known as Prince”) released the iconic song “When Doves Cry” way back in 1985. Coincidentally, the song coincided with an aggressive rate hike cycle from the Federal Reserve under the chairmanship of Paul Volker, a development that made monetary policy doves cry, figuratively speaking. If “The Artist Formerly Known  [...] Continue Reading

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