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Research Results

Results for 'USD/JPY'

56 articles with this tag name

US GDP Instant Reaction: The Tainted Core under Multiple Layers of the GDP Onion

Updated -  Jan 30, 2015 8:55:00 AM


Hopes were high heading into the release of today’s Q4 GDP report, and at first blush, the headline figure failed to live up to expectations. The first estimate of US economic growth came in at 2.6%, below economists’ anticipated reading of 3.0%. However, there is a lot more nuance “under the hood” of this complex report. Peeling away the first layer of the onion reveals some potentially bullish news. The Personal Consumption component of GDP  [...] Continue Reading


January Month-End Model Suggests Strong Dollar Rally, Pending GDP

Updated -  Jan 29, 2015 2:45:00 PM


Background: Traders often refer the impact of ‘month end flows’ on different currency pairs during the last few days of the month. In essence, these money ‘flows’ are caused by global fund managers and investors rebalancing their currency exposure based on market movements over the last month. For example, if the value of one country’s equity and bond markets increases, these fund managers typically look to sell or hedge their now-elevated exposure to that country’s  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY: Will the Fed Provide a Shot of Adrenaline?

Updated -  Jan 28, 2015 8:40:00 AM


The sun rises on a new trading day, and traders rolled out of bed particularly eagerly today in anticipation of the Fed’s monetary policy announcement. With a staggering number of central banks across the world turning more dovish over the past two weeks, traders are starting to wonder if the Fed can maintain its moderately hawkish posture. On one hand, economic data (particularly when it comes to the labor market) has been relatively solid  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY: Back to the Well

Updated -  Jan 26, 2015 10:18:45 AM


North American markets are a little uninterested this morning as a variety of factors have investors paying attention to other matters outside of the trading world.  While the Greek election over this weekend was a significant market mover, newsworthy headlines have been few and far between since SYRIZA took their victory lap as nothing too significant is scheduled for release.  In addition, the east coast of the United States is battening down the hatches  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY: Not So Fast

Updated -  Jan 22, 2015 3:08:36 PM


Much of the fervor around North America today had less to do with what was actually happening on this continent, and more with what was happening in Europe.  Of course, by now everyone is aware that the European Central Bank introduced €60 billion per month of Quantitative Easing that was more than the €50 billion per month they leaked yesterday (if you’re not familiar then I encourage you to read this).  In response to  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY: kicked when it’s down by the BOJ

Updated -  Jan 21, 2015 4:50:00 AM


USDJPY has fallen below 118.00 after the Bank of Japan decided to maintain its current QE programme at its meeting earlier today. Although the base case was for no change from the BOJ, there was a small segment of the market who thought that the BOJ may boost the size of its QE programme ahead of the ECB’s expected announcement later this week, and in the wake of the explosive SNB action last Thursday. However,  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY Holds 50-Day MA Support…For Now.

Updated -  Jan 13, 2015 8:35:00 AM


It’s been a generally quiet day in global markets, with disappointing UK CPI figures as the only news of note in today’s European trade. The US economic calendar is similarly barren (though some traders may want to keep an eye on the JOLTS jobs reports at 15:00 GMT), so technical analysis and flows will be the key factor to watch today. Heading into North American trade, one of the most interesting currency pairs in  [...] Continue Reading


NFP Prep: Will the Labor Market Build on Last Month’s Momentum?

Updated -  Jan 8, 2015 3:15:00 PM


The December Non-Farm Payroll report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 ET (13:30 GMT), with expectations centered on a headline print of around 241k new jobs. My NFP proprietary model suggests that the NFP report will print in line with these expectations,with leading indicators suggesting a December headline NFP reading of 237k. The model has been historically reliable, showing a correlation coefficient of .90 with the unrevised NFP headline figure dating back to 2001 (1.0  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY nears its 50-day SMA ahead of the release of the FOMC’s meeting minutes

Updated -  Jan 6, 2015 8:57:28 PM


USDJPY is attempting to regain some of the ground it lost earlier in the week, but it’s not making much headway in Asia. The pair is still dangerously close to its 50-day SMA ahead of the release of the minutes from the FOMC’s December monetary policy meeting. A confirmed break of its 50-day SMA would be an indicator that the pair’s current weakness may be more than a small retracement and price may be in  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY’s Dip Could Extend, but Long-Term Uptrend Still Healthy

Updated -  Dec 30, 2014 8:20:00 AM


After consolidating in a mind-numbingly tight 120.00-120.75 range last week, USDJPY dropped sharply in today’s overnight session. This move has been driven by two primary factors: 1)      Broad Risk Aversion For one, the yen is catching a clear safe-haven bid on the back of global risk aversion. With rising fears of political instability in Greece, oil prices plumbing new half-decade lows, and a roughly 1% pullback across most major European stock markets, traders  [...] Continue Reading


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