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Research Results

Results for 'USD/JPY'

33 articles with this tag name

USD/JPY: Things could get ugly if we break major support at 116.00

Updated -  Feb 8, 2016 10:00:00 AM


After Friday’s not-as-bad-as-it-appeared NFP report, traders were optimistic that we would see risk sentiment return with Chinese markets on holiday this week, but so far those hopes have not been realized. It’s been an ugly start to the week for so-called “risk assets,” with global stocks, oil, and high-yield bonds all on the back foot at the start of the US session. Beyond oil, one of the best indicators of global trader sentiment  [...] Continue Reading


NFP Recap: Not as bad as it looks…

Updated -  Feb 5, 2016 9:15:00 AM


As the monthly tradition dictates, traders eagerly awaited today’s US jobs report with the (lack of) patience of a kid on Christmas. When the report was finally unveiled, it was by no means the anticipated Red Ryder Carbine Action 200-shot Range Model air rifle with a compass in the stock and "this thing which tells time" (a sundial)” that Ralphie Parker desperately wanted in the classic 1983 film “A Christmas Story,” but it’s hardly as  [...] Continue Reading


USD/JPY: The short half-life of the BOJ’s radioactive negative interest rate decision

Updated -  Feb 3, 2016 10:50:00 AM


According to Wikipedia, Hydrogen-7 is the radioactive isotope with the shortest half-life at about 21 yoctoseconds (10-24 seconds). Of course, nothing in financial markets moves quite that fast (despite the best efforts of some algorithms), but the half-life of Friday’s surprise BOJ interest rate cut has been shockingingly short, even by 2016’s fast-moving market’s standards. While the decision to cross the “negative interest rate rubicon” represents a major shift from the BOJ, traders are  [...] Continue Reading


USD/JPY: Could more BOJ easing expose 120.00?

Updated -  Jan 26, 2016 8:40:00 AM


It was another day of market mayhem in China, where the benchmark Shanghai Composite fell by more than 6%. Unlike some of the other panic episodes we’ve seen so far in 2016 though, the volatility was contained to China, with major European indices seeing only minimal moves and oil, everyone’s favorite indicator of investor sentiment, hovering around the key 30.00 level. Lost amidst the intense focus on the day-to-day fluctuations in oil however, is  [...] Continue Reading


FX Analysis and Technical Outlook

Updated -  Jan 22, 2016 12:30:00 PM


Technical Developments EUR/USD EUR/USD spent the past week continuing its recent consolidation above the 1.0800 support level. On Thursday, however, the euro resumed  [...] Continue Reading


FX Analysis and Technical Outlook

Updated -  Jan 15, 2016 11:30:00 AM


FX Analysis and Technical Outlook Key Economic Events and Releases Next Week:
Tuesday (19 Jan):
- NZD – NZIER Business Confidence
- CNY – China GDP
- CNY – China Industrial Production
- GBP – UK CPI
- EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Wednesday (20 Jan):
- NZD – GDT Price Index
- NZD – New Zealand CPI
- GBP – UK Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change, and Unemployment Rate
-  [...] Continue Reading


USD/JPY bouncing, but skepticism remains below 118.60 barrier

Updated -  Jan 14, 2016 3:00:00 PM


Earlier today, my colleague Fawad Razaqzada discussed the Nikkei 225 and whether Japan’s most widely-followed stock market index was forming a double bottom or merely seeing an oversold bounce. While the correlation is not perfect (no intermarket correlation is!) that bourse and many other equity indices are closely correlated with USD/JPY. Historically, the performance of USDJPY has provided a reliable proxy for global equity markets and risk assets as a whole. This correlation  [...] Continue Reading


NFP Recap: “Goldilocks” report for oversold US equities?

Updated -  Jan 8, 2016 9:15:00 AM


Hopes were high heading into today’s US jobs report, and at least on a headline basis, the report did not disappoint. Traders were looking for another reading slightly above 200k, which would be essentially in line with the 12-month average heading into today’s release (~220k), but as it turns out, the US economy actually created an eye-catching 292k jobs in the month of December. The cherry on top of December’s strong job growth was  [...] Continue Reading


NFP Prep: Will 2016’s first round of economic data go to dollar bulls or bears?

Updated -  Jan 7, 2016 3:00:00 PM


The December Non-Farm Payroll report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 EST (13:30 GMT) with expectations centered on a headline print of 203k after last month’s solid 211k reading. My model suggests that the report could exceed these expectations once again,with leading indicators suggesting a Decemberheadline NFP reading of 225K. The model has been historically reliable, showing a correlation coefficient of 0.90 with the unrevised NFP headline figure dating back to 2001 (1.0 would  [...] Continue Reading


USD/JPY continues plunge as stocks tumble, dollar weakens

Updated -  Jan 7, 2016 9:50:00 AM


USD/JPY continued to plunge on Thursday as the dollar weakened and a flight to the relative safety of the Japanese yen intensified amid tumbling global stock markets. Overnight, trading in Chinese stocks was suspended early due to more than a 7% drop in China’s benchmark stock index. This was the second time this week that circuit breakers triggered a trading suspension. Major global indices in Europe and the US subsequently fell in response, leading to  [...] Continue Reading


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