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Research Results

Results for 'USD/JPY'

54 articles with this tag name

Why “we’re all USD/JPY traders now”

Updated -  Aug 26, 2015 2:15:00 PM


“We’re all Keynseians now” – Milton Friedman The above quote is often misattributed to US President Richard Nixon, when he closed the gold convertibility window. Regardless, the phrase “We are all _____ now” has since become part of the lexicon for anyone trying to make a broad generalization about the current zeitgeist. Amidst the recent global market turmoil, I’d like to postulate that “We are all USD/JPY traders now.” That’s because USD/JPY has become  [...] Continue Reading


Has USD/JPY formed a major top?

Updated -  Aug 26, 2015 6:50:00 AM


The USD/JPY’s strong correlation with the equity markets, if sustained, point to significantly lower levels for the major indices, especially the Nikkei. That’s because the USD/JPY’s monthly chart (in figure 1) suggests a major top may have been formed around the 124/26 area. Although the markets may swing wildly going forward, it will essentially be in a downward trending environment – at least judging by the behaviour of the USD/JPY currency pair and until proven  [...] Continue Reading


EUR/USD: Why is the buck getting bludgeoned?

Updated -  Aug 24, 2015 8:40:00 AM


So much for a late summer weekend at the beach to help calm traders’ nerves. The massive wave of risk-off trade from Friday has carried over into the new week, with global equities and most commodities tanking, bonds surging, and the greenback collapsing. One of these things is not like the other: the US dollar usually sees a safe-haven bid in times of crisis as traders rush to the perceived safety and stability of the  [...] Continue Reading


FOMC minutes preview: 3 key areas to watch

Updated -  Aug 19, 2015 9:00:00 AM


After the quiet, “dog days of summer” trade of the first half of the week, major financial markets could see a big injection of volatility with the release of the July FOMC minutes this afternoon. As a reminder, the central bank came off as less hawkish than expected at its meeting three weeks ago, noting that the risks to the economy were “nearly balanced,” that only “some” further job improvement was needed, and that job  [...] Continue Reading


What a Fed rate hike means for the dollar

Updated -  Aug 17, 2015 11:10:00 AM


Some people have been looking for the Fed to hike interest rates to help reignite the dollar rally. Bad news, some fairly basic analysis suggests that the dollar is not that closely related to the Fed’s rate hiking cycles. We looked at previous hiking cycles in 1987, 1994, 1999, and 2004, here are the results: 1987: dollar fell in the first few months of hikes. 1994: Dollar drifted sideways, before embarking on  [...] Continue Reading


Nikkei: Japan’s dreary growth figures put the BoJ on notice

Updated -  Aug 17, 2015 12:33:47 AM


The Japanese economy contracted last quarter, underpinned by plummeting exports, slack consumer spending and a lack of corporate investment. Gross domestic product fell a seasonally adjusted 0.4% q/q in Q2, just beating an expected 0.5% drop. Annualised growth fell from a revised 4.5% q/q (unrevised 3.9%) gain to a 1.6% q/q contraction, which was also slightly better than expected. This was accompanied by disappointing 0.8% q/q and 0.1% q/q drops in private consumption and business  [...] Continue Reading


Paradise Lost for USDJPY Bulls?

Updated -  Aug 12, 2015 2:25:00 PM


“Long is the way and hard, that out of Hell leads up to light.” – John Milton, Paradise Lost Last week, we highlighted a big inverted head-and-shoulders pattern on USDJPY, and with rates peeking above the 125.00 level yesterday, bulls finally thought they had fought their way out of proverbial “trading hell” and into the light (see “USDJPY: Bulls Revving Up, but Break above 124.50 Needed”). As experienced traders have learned though, what the  [...] Continue Reading


NFP Prep: Jobs Report Should Keep Fed on Track to Hike

Updated -  Aug 6, 2015 2:55:00 PM


The July Non-Farm Payroll report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 ET (12:30 GMT, 1:30pm BST), with expectations centered on a headline print of 220k after last month’s “Twilight Zone” 223k reading. My model suggests that the report could exceed these expectations,with leading indicators suggesting a June headline NFP reading of 247K. The model has been historically reliable, showing a correlation coefficient of 0.90 with the unrevised NFP headline figure dating back to 2001  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY: Bulls Revving Up, but Break above 124.50 Needed

Updated -  Aug 5, 2015 8:50:00 AM


“Drivers, start your engines!” The classic starting command for the Indianapolis 500 will jumpstart the heartbeat of any true racing fan, and global traders are revving up for a similarly fast-paced race over the latter half of this week. Today’s economic data kicked off with the release of the ADP employment report, one of the better leading indicators for Friday’s marquee NFP report. The massive payroll provider determined that the US economy created 185k  [...] Continue Reading


FOMC Instant Reaction: “Nearly” There, but “Further” Improvement Needed

Updated -  Jul 29, 2015 2:25:00 PM


As we noted in our FOMC preview report, analysts and traders were unanimous in their expectation that the central bank would leave interest rates unchanged in the 0.00-0.25% range, and the Fed provided no surprises on that front. That said, the world’s most important central bank still gave traders plenty to chew over in its first monetary policy statement of Q3. First, the headlines from this month’s statement [emphasis mine]: Earlier today, analysts coalesced  [...] Continue Reading


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