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Research Results

Results for 'USD/JPY'

68 articles with this tag name

USDJPY: Data-Packed Last 48 Hours of the Week to Lead to a Triangle Breakout

Updated -  Aug 27, 2014 2:00:00 PM


After rocketing 175 pips higher last week, USDJPY has been absolutely anemic this week. After gapping higher to trade at a new 7-month high above 104.12, rates dipped down to fill the gap on Monday and have since oscillated with 35 pips of the 104.00 handle. The recent trading conditions have undoubtedly been lackluster, but USDJPY traders should not lose faith yet; a busy economic calendar and developing technical pattern suggest volatility should return  [...] Continue Reading


FX: is volatility about to come back to the FX market?

Updated -  Aug 26, 2014 10:50:00 AM


FX volatility has fallen to record lows in recent months, which is one reason why trading conditions have been particularly boring, but could this be about to change? Listening to some of the speeches from Jackson Hole at the weekend, the annual conference of central bankers, monetary policy could be about to move down divergent paths in the coming months, and there could be implications for the FX market.   On the one side you  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY gaps higher; Nikkei rallies

Updated -  Aug 25, 2014 1:23:52 AM


A combination of yen weakness and US dollar strength has pushed USDJPY even higher. As we outlined this morning, the weekend’s events in Jackson Hole sent investors flocking to the USD and away from the yen. The ensuing yen weakness has helped to spark a rally in the Nikkei, with investors hoping that the lower exchange rate will breathe new life into Japan’s struggling export market. The sell-off in the yen was sparked by  [...] Continue Reading


Fed Minutes: Hawkish Shift Drives Buck to New Highs

Updated -  Aug 20, 2014 2:25:00 PM


Traders just received the minutes from the most recent meeting of the Federal Reserve policy committee, and the big takeaway is that the FOMC is shifting in favor of normalizing monetary policy sooner than many traders were expecting. Though the vote in favor of last month’s policy statement was a relatively tame 9-1 decision, with hardcore hawk Charles Plosser as the only dissenter, the recently released minutes showed more discord within the committee than the  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY: navigating Jackson Hole risk

Updated -  Aug 20, 2014 8:40:00 AM


The Jackson Hole conference of central bankers may not be everyone’s idea of a barrel of laughs, but it can be big news for your portfolio. In the past, central bankers have used these speeches to announce changes in monetary policy; this is where Ben Bernanke first announced the prospect of QE. As we lead up to today’s meeting expectations are high that Janet Yellen will announce something equally juicy, especially as we are less  [...] Continue Reading


USDJPY: Sailing through Rough Retail Sales Seas

Updated -  Aug 13, 2014 10:20:00 AM


A few weeks ago, we raised the possibility that USDJPY could see a breakout from its 7-month descending triangle pattern (see “Time for USDJPY Traders to Wake Up?” for more). A few days later, the pair broke out of the pattern, eventually running up to 103.00 before losing steam and pulling back to 101.50 last week. Now, as we go to press, the fundamental picture for USDJPY is mixed, but the technical outlook remains  [...] Continue Reading


Three things that dollar bulls need to watch out for

Updated -  Aug 11, 2014 7:55:00 AM


After reaching its highest level since September 2013, has the dollar turned a corner, and can we expect further upside? Below we point out three things that could get in the way of further gains for the buck: At the start of the week we would urge dollar bulls to tread carefully. Watch out for any further declines in the 2-year yield, keep an eye on what USDJPY is doing and remember to  [...] Continue Reading


The BoJ is expected to ignore recent weak economic data

Updated -  Aug 7, 2014 8:56:09 PM


The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to maintain the status-quo at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting later today. The bank will likely retain its plan to increase the monetary base by 60-70 trillion yen a year through assets purchases. In fact, the unrelenting optimism of the BOJ should ensure that the entire meeting is a non-event for the market. Also, the interim forecasts released in July would have been a better time  [...] Continue Reading


Research Note: July NFP Prep

Updated -  Jul 31, 2014 3:30:00 PM


By: Matt Weller, Senior Technical Analyst The July Non-Farm Payroll report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 ET (13:30 GMT), with expectations centered on a headline print of around 230k new jobs. My NFP forecasting model suggests that the NFP report will come in slightly below expectations,with leading indicators suggesting a July headline NFP reading of 206k. The model has been historically reliable, showing a correlation coefficient of .90 with the unrevised NFP headline figure  [...] Continue Reading


Stellar US GDP Drives Dollar – What Will it Mean for Fed Policy?

Updated -  Jul 30, 2014 9:30:00 AM


For weeks now, both USD bulls and bears have had today marked on their calendars as one of the most important days for US economic data of the entire summer (see “USD Bulls on Parade!” for more). While we’re only in the eye of the economic data storm right now, the first round undoubtedly went to the bulls. ADP: Ho-Hum The first fundamental salvo came from the monthly ADP employment report at 8:15am ET  [...] Continue Reading


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