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Weekly Insights

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  • Weekly Insights
WEEKLY STRATEGY Update 1 – Kiwi heads & shoulders below the rest

Updated May 23, 2012 1:00:00 AM By Daniel Hwang

Unfortunately, potential NZD/USD shorts highlighted early this morning, May 22 2012; 0110ET...Weekly Strategy: NZD/USD heads & shoulders below the rest, around 0.7680 were just missed – NZD/USD hit highs around 0.7675 before free-falling to current levels around 0.7540. Tuesday’s kiwi downside invalidates yesterday’s weekly strategy but in its place has set the framework for a technical breakout play. Taking a top down approach provides some clarity as to potential NZD direction.  [...] Continue Reading

Tags: EUR/USD, NZD/USD, THE WEEKLY STRATEGY
Weekly Strategy: Kiwi heads and shoulders below the rest?

Updated May 22, 2012 1:10:00 AM By Daniel Hwang

EUR/USD exit… Last Friday, EUR/USD fell to lows slightly above 1.2640 before sharply reversing higher. However, the move down to the most recent 1.2640 lows hit the H&S measured move objective (see below April 19, 2012 Weekly Strategy Update) and final limit target from the MARCH 9 2012, 0314ET...WEEKLY STRATEGY: 'Don't buy the rumor, sell the irrational exuberance' at around 1.2650 for a potential reward of about +585 pips, also updated in [...] Continue Reading

Tags: EUR/USD, NZD/USD, Weekly Strategy
FX VIEWS (Weekly Wrap): BEATING THE STREET

Updated May 18, 2012 9:00:00 PM By Daniel Hwang

Both the euro and kiwi plunged to fresh multi-month lows hitting limit targets for potential short plays vs. USD highlighted within the FX VIEWS series. I can go on and on about Greece, Spain, and China risks – which I’ve done time & time again – but I think by viewing below.......ENOUGH SAID: NZD/USD SHORTS - FEB 15 2012, 0345ET...FX VIEWS: A diamond in the rough for kiwi shorts?     TRADE PREMISE: [...] Continue Reading

Tags: EUR/USD, FX VIEWS, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY
The Week Ahead--Week of May 20, 2012

Updated May 18, 2012 1:00:00 PM By Kathleen Brooks and Eric Viloria, CMT

It was a pivotal week for the Eurozone after Greece announced that it was heading back to the polls after the top three parities failed to form a coalition government. So now Greece is leaderless, there is a caretaker government in place but it won’t be able to enforce the austerity required to get the next tranche of bailout funds necessary for Greece to avoid running out of money in July. So as time runs [...] Continue Reading

EMERGING MARKETS FX INSIGHT: Sell in May, EMFX in-flows go away

Updated May 17, 2012 9:30:00 PM By Daniel Hwang

 [...] Continue Reading

Tags: EMERGING MARKETS FX INSIGHTS, EUR/TRY, USD/PLN, ZAR/JPY

The global risk sell-off has hit equity markets in Asia hard. In fact, some stock markets in Asia have suffered more than their counterparts in the US and Europe, for instance the ASX200 has lost around 3.05% of its value in the last 5 days, whereas the Dow Jones and the Euro Stoxx are only down around 1.84% and 2.26% respectively. This is interesting when we consider investors have been squarely focused on the political [...] Continue Reading

Tags: ASX, BoJ, INDICES INSIDER, Nikkei, RBA

“Tightening 30-day FX: EQUITY MARKET correlations suggest further selling for risk assets may be in store in May. Cross-asset correlations reached cyclical highs during periods of extreme risk aversion in 2011.” - MAY 7 2012; 2200ET...CORRELATIONS CORNER: FX S/T CORRELATIONS SUGGESTING DOWNSIDE FOR RISK ASSETS? Fears of an impending Eurozone exit for Greece, glaring holes in Spain’s banking sector, and softening economic data from China have been the primary factors behind this ongoing risk [...] Continue Reading

The Week Ahead--Week of May 13, 2012

Updated May 11, 2012 1:30:00 PM By Kathleen Brooks and Eric Viloria, CMT

The BOE kept rates on hold when it concluded its May meeting last week; it also allowed the asset purchase program to come to an end. Since the UK slipped back into recession in Q1 2012 and the growth figures at the start of the second quarter have continued to look weak, the decision to hold interest rates was mostly down to the sticky outlook for inflation. The attention now turns to Wednesday’s Inflation Report. [...] Continue Reading

Indices Insider Europe and the US: Does the sell-off have further to go?

Updated May 11, 2012 12:00:00 PM By Kathleen Brooks

This is the million dollar question that everyone wants to know after stock markets across the globe suffered heavy losses last week in the wake of the French and Greek election results. Europe is still at the epicentre of the sell-off and although risk markets seem calmer as we end the week, market nerves remain frayed. From a fundamental perspective the future direction of stock markets could go a couple of ways in the [...] Continue Reading

Tags: INDICES INSIDER, NAS 100, SPX 500, Stocks, US 100

THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS: REVIEW - Q2 2011 to present FX VIEWS STRATEGY TRACKER: BEATING THE STREET COME WHAT MAY: Key FX drivers in May and the months ahead ACTIVE STRATEGY UPDATES: Link to ‘date & time’ stamped active strategy & updates thereafter, specified entries and exits, trade premise, & open P/L (pips) CLOSED STRATEGY RECAPS: Links to ‘date & time’ stamped closed strategy & [...] Continue Reading

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

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Market Summary Full Summary
PairLastHigh/LowChange 
EUR/USD1.265501.26900 / 1.261420.00276 >
USD/JPY79.39380.084 / 79.3260.558 >
GBP/USD1.572681.57742 / 1.567620.00313 >
USD/CAD1.023131.02468 / 1.020230.00279 >
XAU/USD1560.441569.02 / 1551.577.82 >
London Session: Will Greece leave or not?Update - May 23, 2012 6:40:00 AMWe have heard conflicting information about Greece over the last 24 hours: first we heard that Greece was making plans to leave the Eurozone from former Prime Minister Papademos, which was denied. The  Read on
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