Updated Mar 1, 2013 3:00:00 PM
By Kathleen Brooks and Eric Viloria, CMT
At the close of European markets on Friday EURUSD had tumbled below 1.30 and closed at its lowest level since December. Interestingly, the decline was not on the back of the on-going confusion over who will lead Italy after elections last week did not give one party enough votes to govern without a coalition. Instead the decline was triggered by fundamental data released on Friday including a record high in unemployment and a decline in [...] Continue Reading
Updated Feb 22, 2013 1:00:00 PM
By Kathleen Brooks and Eric Viloria, CMT
Next week, Congress faces the deadline of March 1 before automatic cuts trigger resulting in a reduction of $85B in spending this fiscal year and $109B in each of the next 9 years. Including the assumed debt service savings, the “sequester” – the term used for the automatic cuts – totals $1.2 trillion over the next decade. The cuts apply to discretionary spending and are divided between defense and non-defense. Cuts would be seen across [...] Continue Reading
Updated Feb 15, 2013 11:30:00 AM
By Kathleen Brooks and Chris Tedder
Since the onset of the sovereign debt crisis we have seen the impact member states’ elections can have on volatility for euro-based assets. Thus, the recent stabilisation in the currency bloc and appreciation of the euro and European stocks could be under threat by the outcome of elections in Cyprus and Italy in the coming days. Cyprus heads to the polling stations on February 17th; however the polls predict no outright winner. The [...] Continue Reading
Updated Feb 8, 2013 1:30:00 PM
By Kathleen Brooks and Eric Viloria, CMT
The so-called currency war stepped up a notch last week when the ECB President waded into the debate about the strength of the euro. The single currency has appreciated by nearly 6% since the start of the year, which caused some Eurozone officials, including French President Hollande, to speak out about the damaging impact of the pace of gains in the euro. While Draghi was careful not to implicate himself in a currency war, he [...] Continue Reading
Updated Feb 1, 2013 1:30:00 PM
By Kathleen Brooks and Eric Viloria, CMT
As European markets closed on Friday EURUSD surged to close to 1.37 versus the dollar and close to 127.00 versus the yen, the highest level since November 2011. There were a few drivers for the move higher in the euro last week: 1, strong stock markets, which boosted trader sentiment for the risky end of the FX market and 2, some signs of stabilisation in the Eurozone economy. January manufacturing PMI data was revised [...] Continue Reading
Updated Jan 25, 2013 12:45:00 PM
By Kathleen Brooks and Eric Viloria, CMT
The FOMC will hold its first meeting of 2013 and the Committee will see a shift in the composition of its voting members. St Louis Fed President James Bullard, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, and Boston Fed President Rosenberg will rotate in as voters as Atlanta’s Lockhart, Cleveland’s Pianalto, Richmond’s Lacker, and San Francisco’s Williams rotate out. We will learn where the new voters stand with regards to the [...] Continue Reading
Updated Jan 18, 2013 2:00:00 PM
By Kathleen Brooks and Eric Viloria, CMT
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold a two-day meeting on Monday and Tuesday of next week. The Bank will announce its policy decisions at the conclusion of the meeting and expectations of additional easing measures have been mounting. This is seen in currency markets as the yen has weakened significantly, falling to multi-year lows against several of its major counterparts. USD/JPY rose above the 90.00 level for the first time since mid-2010, EUR/JPY tested [...] Continue Reading
Updated Jan 4, 2013 1:00:00 PM
By Eric Viloria, CMT
The European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates on hold at 0.75% as expected on Thursday after talks at the prior meeting that indicated a rate cut could be expected soon. More surprisingly, at the ECB press conference, President Mario Draghi stated that the decision to keep rates steady was unanimous and that the region’s economy should recover gradually this year. This helped to lift the euro as speculation of lower interest rates were drastically [...] Continue Reading
Updated Jan 4, 2013 1:00:00 PM
By Eric Viloria, CMT
The release of the December FOMC meeting minutes was somewhat of a surprise to markets as members discussed a possible end to the current round of quantitative easing (QE). Minutes showed that a few members on the committee wanted QE until about the end of 2013 while several backed slowing or stopping purchases well before the end of 2013. The initial reaction in the markets saw treasury yields and the USD rise, while stocks dipped [...] Continue Reading
Updated Dec 28, 2012 12:30:00 PM
By Eric Viloria, CMT
The fiscal cliff has dominated headlines as the clock ticks and the end of the year looms. Without action by Congress, automatic tax hikes and spending cuts will be triggered that will negatively impact growth. Politicians have seemingly reached an impasse on budget talks as Republicans and Democrats cannot agree on the extent of tax increases and reduction in spending. Key political leaders in the House include Speaker Boehner, Majority Leader Cantor, and Minority Leader [...] Continue Reading
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