Updated Feb 3, 2012 4:00:00 PM Written by Brian Dolan, Chief Currency Strategist
Better data drives risk on, Fed QE3 off The past week ended with a string of better-than-expected data releases from key major economies, suggesting the global recovery may avoid a more worrisome downturn. Mostly better than expected PMI’s from Europe, UK, China and the US were supplemented on Friday by a much stronger US employment report than was expected. We’re cautiously optimistic that the better US jobs report is a valid signal that the [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated Jan 27, 2012 4:45:00 PM Written by Brian Dolan, Chief Currency Strategist
It’s all Greek to me Eurozone debt markets continued to show signs of further stabilization as Greek/private sector bondholder (private sector investors or PSI) negotiations continued to stumble along with repeated promises that a deal was soon to be reached, possibly over this weekend. The debt swap deal is a prerequisite to Greece receiving the next EU/IMF aid installment and avoiding a disorderly default. The details of the debt swap deal are reported to [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated Jan 20, 2012 4:30:00 PM Written by Brian Dolan, Chief Currency Strategist
Risk rebound may not last long Risk sentiment stabilized in the past week as several European debt auctions saw lower borrowing rates and solid demand. Stocks took heart and rallied, while the USD lost ground and the beleaguered EUR recovered as extreme short-positions were unwound. Sentiment was also buoyed on the prospects for a final resolution on the Greek government debt swap. But as of Friday afternoon, a final Greek debt deal has yet [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated Jan 13, 2012 5:00:00 PM Written by Brian Dolan, Chief Currency Strategist
Eurozone downgrades—desperate, but not serious The much-feared, yet equally much-anticipated, EU sovereign credit rating downgrades have arrived. The winners were Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and Luxembourg, which saw their AAA ratings sustained. The losers were Belgium, Austria and France, which were cut one grade to AA+. The biggest losers were Italy, Spain and Portugal, which were cut two grades to BBB+, three steps above junk. The hope was that France could maintain its AAA [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated Jan 6, 2012 4:20:00 PM Written by Brian Dolan, Chief Currency Strategist
Happy New Year and best wishes for a successful 2012! EUR gets hit hard to start the year After a brief rally at the start of this holiday-shortened week, the EUR went on a largely one-way trip south, resuming its year-end decline against all major currencies. EU sovereign debt fears and banking sector stresses continue to send investors fleeing from the Eurozone. Government bond yields of the most troubled EU economies surged, with Italian [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated Dec 23, 2011 2:45:00 PM Written by Brian Dolan, Chief Currency Strategist
Final trading week of 2011 Next week sees the final trading week for the year and we expect market interest to be significantly reduced due to major holidays on each end, likely leading to largely sideways drift. But reduced market participation also has the tendency to see spikes in volatility on news headlines and data reports, as fewer traders seek reduced liquidity in response to breaking events. In particular, we would note month/quarter-end fixing [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated Dec 16, 2011 4:50:00 PM Written by Brian Dolan, Chief Currency Strategist
EUR finally caves; downside remains in focus Last week I wrote about the puzzling market reaction to the disappointing EU Summit, but the delayed response finally came at the start of this past week’s trading. EUR/USD collapsed below recent range lows in the 1.3220/50 area, forcing a flood of option-related selling on the break down, before bottoming around 1.2950 and finishing the week just above the 1.3000 level. Reasonably successful bond auctions from Spain [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated Dec 9, 2011 4:45:00 PM Written by Brian Dolan, Chief Currency Strategist
EU Summit deal doesn’t solve debt crisis The much-anticipated EU Summit delivered on the basics of establishing new fiscal rules to prevent a future debt crisis, but has failed to resolve the near-term debt crisis, namely how will troubled European governments maintain their debt service if credit markets turn on them again? The EU agreed to provide an additional EUR 200 bio to the IMF in the form of bilateral loans, providing a bit [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated Dec 2, 2011 4:30:00 PM Written by Brian Dolan, Chief Currency Strategist
Make or break week for EU debt crisis Next week will likely see either an agreement to bind Eurozone nations’ fiscal policies together with irrevocable, enforceable institutions or the beginning of the end for the single currency. We have been here before and so far EU leaders have never failed to disappoint, but they must surely recognize by now that markets have run out of patience and a global financial crisis awaits if they [...] Continue Reading ...
Updated Nov 23, 2011 4:45:00 PM Written by Brian Dolan, Chief Currency Strategist
EU contagion spreading to Germany; French and Italian debt auctions next week On Wednesday, Germany was only able to sell about 2/3 of the EUR 6 bio in 10-year government bonds on offer, making it the sixth of the last eight bund auctions that went undersubscribed. But the amount left on hold was the highest proportion of unsold 10-year debt since 1995. While the German finance ministry downplayed the shortfall as ‘technical’ in nature, [...] Continue Reading ...
<< Previous 1 2 3 4 5 Next >>
