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Live updates

USD/ZAR: Is the Recent Bounce Just Another "False Dawn" for Bulls?

Updated  Apr 24, 2014 8:40:00 AM Written by Matt Weller

Two weeks ago, we highlighted the potential for a bottom to form near 10.35 on USD/ZAR (see “USD/ZAR: Could This Be a Near-Term Bottom?” for more). As it turned out, the pair did find floor near the highlighted level, and rates have since rallied back up to test the 10.60 level. That said, a much more important technical test looms before traders can shift back to an outright bullish bias. Yesterday, investors got [...] Continue Reading ...


US crude oil fundamentals point to lower prices

Updated  Apr 24, 2014 8:20:00 AM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

The price of crude remains supported almost entirely by concerns over geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Libya. After all, one would have expected oil prices to be much lower than they actually are given the excessive supply of US oil and weaker demand. Nine months of blockages at oilfields and export terminals by armed rebels has seen Libya’s crude output reduce to about 220,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million bpd before the troubles began [...] Continue Reading ...


EUR steady after volatility drops to a multi-year low

Updated  Apr 24, 2014 6:30:00 AM Written by Kathleen Brooks

The FX market has failed to grab the headlines of late as stocks and earnings season hog the limelight. However, some interesting developments are taking place that are worth noting. In EURUSD two key things are worth pointing out: Why the drop in volatility? There could be two reasons for this: 1, the sovereign debt crisis is considered over by the markets, which has reduced expectations of a dramatic sell off in [...] Continue Reading ...


Technical update: Is AUDCAD running out of steam?

Updated  Apr 24, 2014 2:04:14 AM Written by Chris Tedder

AUDCAD has been in a broad upward trend all year but this may be about to come to an end. There are some technical signs that the pair may be running on fumes. There has been a bearish crossover in daily MACD, the pair is looking oversold on a weekly chart and there is a potential bearish divergence between price action and daily RSI. In saying that, it may be too early to get overly [...] Continue Reading ...


AUDNZD gets hit by Australia’s CPI data and a rate hike by the RBNZ

Updated  Apr 23, 2014 7:29:01 PM Written by Chris Tedder

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised the official cash rate by 25 bps to 3.00% as expected. The bank was unfazed by lower than expected inflation in Q1 and falling dairy prices over the last couple of months, as we suspected it would be. Over the medium-term inflation remains an issue for the RBNZ, with non-tradeables inflation gathering momentum and tradeables inflation only being held down by a strong exchange rate which the [...] Continue Reading ...


Kiwi rallies as RBNZ raised rates by 25bps to 3.00%

Updated  Apr 23, 2014 5:35:00 PM Written by Chris Tevere, CMT

The Kiwi has rallied after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised rates by 25bps to 3.00% – This was in-line with market expectations. Overall, the tone of the statement was slightly more upbeat and did little to suggest that future rate hikes would be on pause. As a result, the NZD has caught a bit across the board between 30-50 pips (at the time of this writing) and may be poised for further strength [...] Continue Reading ...


EUR/CAD: Break of 1.5300 Resistance Could Herald 200-pip Rally

Updated  Apr 23, 2014 2:05:00 PM Written by Matt Weller

Yesterday, we examined the longer-term charts of the USD/CAD, concluding that the bias remains generally to the topside above 1.0850 support (see “USD/CAD: The Long View Remains Bullish” for more). Today’s Canadian Retail Sales figure helped validate that view; though the headline number came in as expected at 0.5%, the previous month’s report was revised sharply lower – from 1.3% to 0.9% - leading traders to view the release as negative for the loonie. [...] Continue Reading ...


GBPUSD achieves the ATR target in the post-Easter shortened week

Updated  Apr 23, 2014 11:15:00 AM Written by Chris Tevere, CMT

Let’s face it, the whole purpose of doing any form of analysis, whether that is technical, fundamental or statistical, is to try to identify higher probability trading opportunities. As many of you know, one of my favorite strategies is the utilization of a European opening range and while it will typically focus on EURUSD it can be applied to any of the European majors. Ideally, if price is struggling near these events (typically spotted [...] Continue Reading ...


EUR/AUD major beneficiary of Wednesday’s data releases; more gains possible

Updated  Apr 23, 2014 11:00:00 AM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

The latest eurozone purchasing managers’ indices, released this morning, were better than expected. The headline eurozone services sector PMI rose to 53.1 from 52.2 last month while the manufacturing PMI edged up to 53.3 from 53.0 previously. Significantly for the single currency it was Germany, the euro area’s economic powerhouse, where private sector activity accelerated most notably, with both of its sector PMIs hitting two-month highs. The French PMI readings, which had come out earlier [...] Continue Reading ...


S&P testing key resistance level; break above could see index hit fresh all-time highs

Updated  Apr 23, 2014 9:25:00 AM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

The S&P 500 looks set to open lower today. Given that this morning’s earnings results have been mostly better than expected and the fact that there was some mixed-bag data from Asia and Europe overnight, the weakness can at least be partly blamed on profit-taking. Indeed with shares on Wall Street rallying in each of the last six trading days, the odds for a pullback of some sort is correspondingly increasing each day. Also weighing [...] Continue Reading ...


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