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Live updates

Market Review & Outlook: Mixed Jobs Report Keeps High Fed Expectations Intact

Updated  Dec 2, 2016 10:40:00 AM Written by James Chen, CMT

As we noted the day before Friday’s US jobs report, only a significantly worse-than-expected reading for November would have likely made the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision more difficult. A better-than-expected or in-line result would have simply reinforced the very high likelihood that the Fed would hike interest rates by 25 basis points on December 14. As it turns out, the jobs report was neither exceptionally positive nor overly negative, resulting in an expectedly [...] Continue Reading ...

EUR/USD steady ahead of NFP

Updated  Dec 2, 2016 7:44:36 AM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

Now today’s focus is on the US jobs report which should cause noticeable volatility in the markets, especially if the numbers deviate from expectations by a sizeable margin. It would take a really bad report – and I am talking about net job losses – to deter the Fed from hiking rates at its meeting later this month. Anything other than that may not cause the dollar to weaken significantly, although there is a possibility [...] Continue Reading ...

Silver lining for precious metals?

Updated  Dec 1, 2016 1:46:59 PM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

I do apologise in advance for bombarding you with lots of commodity reports, but ahead of Friday’s NFP report, the FX markets tend to create lots of false moves, so it is difficult to make much of today’s moves. You could argue that it is the same for dollar-denominated commodities like gold and silver. Well that’s partly what I am trying to get at. Both precious metals have broken below their respective 61.8% Fibonacci retracement [...] Continue Reading ...

US NFP Preview: Only an Awful Jobs Report Will Stop the Fed

Updated  Dec 1, 2016 1:30:00 PM Written by James Chen, CMT

Much has changed since the last US jobs report was released in early November. Since that time, Donald Trump has unexpectedly become president-elect of the US, stocks have enjoyed a surprisingly strong rally to new all-time highs, the dollar has surged dramatically, and gold has suffered a precipitous decline. Inflation Largely responsible for the dollar and gold moves have been an increase in inflation expectations with a corresponding sharp rise in bond yields, [...] Continue Reading ...

Crude: OPEC-fuelled rally has just begun

Updated  Dec 1, 2016 7:26:33 AM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

The OPEC put its differences to a side and got its act together to resume its traditional role as a price fixer on Wednesday. The cartel agreed to cut its oil output by a good 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.5 million bpd. The agreement is subject to key non-OPEC members reducing their own output by 600 thousand barrels per day, half of which will be taken care of by Russia. The changes will [...] Continue Reading ...

EUR/USD teeters above critical support

Updated  Nov 30, 2016 4:45:00 PM Written by James Chen, CMT

The 1.0500 level has served as a major historical support area for EUR/USD within the past two years. Previously, the currency pair had not traded at these depths for more than a decade – since early 2003. While it was breached to the downside slightly and briefly in March of 2015, the 1.0500 level has been repeatedly tested and has held its ground several times since then. The last time the level was tested was [...] Continue Reading ...

EUR/CAD: one to watch

Updated  Nov 30, 2016 1:50:00 PM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

Despite oil’s massive rally on the back of the OPEC news, the Canadian dollar, which tends to correlate strongly with oil prices, has hardly moved against its major rivals. Indeed, the USD/CAD momentarily turned positive. The EUR/CAD is still down on the day, but it too has held its own relatively well. One has to wonder, if such an oil-bullish move was unable to underpin the CAD, what will? Thus, the EUR/CAD could potentially bounced [...] Continue Reading ...

USD/JPY breaks out to new highs as dollar surges and safe-havens suffer

Updated  Nov 30, 2016 12:50:00 PM Written by James Chen, CMT

The long-awaited OPEC deal was agreed upon on Wednesday and the 14 member-nations in the organization were able to pull together an agreement to cut daily crude oil production down by more than a million barrels to 32.5 million barrels per day. This was no easy feat, and the energy markets immediately rewarded the deal’s success by pushing up the price of crude oil by more than 8%. The US dollar, which had already been [...] Continue Reading ...

Is gold hammering out a bottom?

Updated  Nov 29, 2016 4:10:00 PM Written by James Chen, CMT

There is no doubt that the price of gold has been pressured tremendously in the past two months, and especially since early November when Donald Trump became the new US president-elect. Although many had projected that gold could see a significant boost in the event of his victory due to the uncertainty surrounding Trump, quite the opposite has happened. Gold has fallen precipitously on rising bond yields, a strengthening US dollar, and ever-increasing expectations of [...] Continue Reading ...

OPEC preview: will Iran call Saudi’s bluff?

Updated  Nov 29, 2016 1:49:24 PM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

Lots of headlines have come out ahead of tomorrow’s much-anticipated OPEC meeting. They have been largely oil-negative with Iran in particular being very vocal, saying that it won’t reduce its output and at the same time demanding that Saudi Arabia should shoulder most of the responsibility. Iraq, too, wants to be except from production cuts. We have heard it all before. Iran and Iraq’s oil ministers are obviously trying to win the best deal for [...] Continue Reading ...

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