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FX Analysis and Technical Outlook

Updated  May 27, 2016 12:20:00 PM Written by James Chen, CMT

Brexit Risk Should Derail Fed Rate Hike in June US Federal Reserve members have repeatedly voiced concerns over the risk of a potential UK exit from the European Union, or “Brexit.” Most recently, Fed Governor and voting FOMC member, Jerome Powell, alluded to the upcoming EU referendum in a speech on Thursday. While Powell reinforced the Fed’s recent hawkish turn, stating that a rate hike should be appropriate “fairly soon,” he also mentioned that the [...] Continue Reading ...

Stocks could resume rally next week

Updated  May 27, 2016 11:00:00 AM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

*** Please note: I will be away the whole of next week and will return on Monday June 6 *** Stocks found some much-needed support this week on the back of a rising oil price to $50 a barrel and as concerns about the negative impact of a potential June Federal Reserve rate increase diminished. Traders realised that a small rate rise, if seen, would not materially impact the world’s largest economy where monetary policy [...] Continue Reading ...

Crude oil in consolidation mode ahead of OPEC meeting

Updated  May 27, 2016 7:50:00 AM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

Having momentarily surpassed the $50 hurdle, Brent and WTI suffered from profit-taking in the second half of Thursday’s session before extending their losses slightly on Friday morning. Despite the pullback, both oil contracts still looked set to close higher for the third straight week. Oil prices have been boosted by a number of factors lately, including the unscheduled production outages, continued output decreases in the US and strong demand for gasoline at the start of [...] Continue Reading ...

AUD/USD likely poised for downtrend continuation towards 0.7000

Updated  May 26, 2016 4:40:00 PM Written by James Chen, CMT

AUD/USD has been falling in a sharp downtrend for the past month from its late April high above 0.7800. The initial drop was accelerated after a surprisingly low Australian inflation (CPI) reading was released near the end of April and then was followed up in early May by a Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut to a record low 1.75%. Subsequently, the central bank lowered inflation forecasts and hinted at further potential rate cuts. [...] Continue Reading ...

US dollar maintains recovery ahead of Friday’s US GDP data

Updated  May 26, 2016 2:00:00 PM Written by James Chen, CMT

Significantly better-than-expected economic numbers from the US on Thursday have continued the recent string of positive US data that could help convince the Fed to raise interest rates in June or July. This data was followed up by relatively hawkish comments from a key FOMC member. Unemployment claims for last week came in lower (better) than expected at 268K vs 275K expected, representing a further decrease from the prior three weeks. Durable goods orders for [...] Continue Reading ...

EUR/GBP continues head-and-shoulders slide towards downside target

Updated  May 25, 2016 12:30:00 PM Written by James Chen, CMT

EUR/GBP continued its sharp slide on Wednesday morning for the second consecutive day this week as the euro has generally remained in a prolonged slump and sterling has once again taken center stage as the star performer against other major currencies. In the process of this slide, the currency pair hit a new 16-week low under 0.7600 early on Wednesday. Having dropped to this low, EUR/GBP has also hit key support at its 200-day moving [...] Continue Reading ...

Dollar Index near top of bear channel

Updated  May 24, 2016 12:45:00 PM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

The relentless rise in the Dollar Index has continued today. The dollar has been boosted mainly on renewed expectations of an earlier-than-expected rate hike in the US, possibly in June as the FOMC’s last meeting minutes suggest, or more likely in July, once the UK-EU referendum is out of the way. In addition, data from the US has generally been positive of late, though we have had outliers such as the manufacturing PMI yesterday which [...] Continue Reading ...

EUR/USD extends plunge as euro stagnates and dollar surges

Updated  May 24, 2016 10:50:00 AM Written by James Chen, CMT

With the German ZEW economic sentiment coming out significantly lower than expected on Tuesday (6.4 vs 12.1 expected), and the US dollar continuing to surge based on renewed expectations of a near-term Fed rate hike, the EUR/USD has not had much reason to rise as of late. Economic stagnation in the euro area continues to weigh on an already-dovish European Central Bank that has been in persistent easing mode, dragging down the euro currency. Meanwhile, [...] Continue Reading ...

EU Referendum Watch: Brexit fears rise in Germany, fall in Britain

Updated  May 24, 2016 7:30:00 AM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

With less than a month to go until the EU referendum, new forward-looking economic data released today suggests concerns about the possibility of Britain leaving the European Union is hurting investor sentiment in Germany. However, their concerns may be unjustifiably high as a fresh poll in the Telegraph showed the ‘remain’ camp was building a more decisive lead in the EU-UK referendum campaign. Consequently, the EUR/GBP slumped as the euro fell on the back of [...] Continue Reading ...

Yen surges on US warnings against Japanese intervention

Updated  May 23, 2016 3:10:00 PM Written by James Chen, CMT

During the gathering of central bankers and finance ministers at the G7 meetings in Japan on Saturday, the US reiterated warnings to its host against intervening to weaken the yen. In the weeks prior to the meetings, Japanese officials had been issuing an intensifying stream of intervention rhetoric attempting to justify Japan’s readiness and willingness to take action in the event of exceptional yen volatility (or perhaps more accurately, yen strengthening). Partly as a result [...] Continue Reading ...

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

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