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AUDNZD: Who’s Weaker?

Updated  Jan 29, 2015 3:47:37 PM Written by Neal Gilbert

The commodity currencies of Australia and New Zealand have really been abused of late as their central banks have leaked that they could be cutting interest rates or backed away quickly from a hawkish stance respectively. When viewing the context of the decisions to lean more dovish for both nation’s central banks -- falling milk prices, falling oil, falling copper, Eurozone Quantitative Easing, a slowing China, etc. -- it makes complete sense for them to [...] Continue Reading ...


January Month-End Model Suggests Strong Dollar Rally, Pending GDP

Updated  Jan 29, 2015 2:45:00 PM Written by Matt Weller, CMT

Background: Traders often refer the impact of ‘month end flows’ on different currency pairs during the last few days of the month. In essence, these money ‘flows’ are caused by global fund managers and investors rebalancing their currency exposure based on market movements over the last month. For example, if the value of one country’s equity and bond markets increases, these fund managers typically look to sell or hedge their now-elevated exposure to that country’s [...] Continue Reading ...


Gold’s $30 drop: overreaction or sign of things to come?

Updated  Jan 29, 2015 1:40:00 PM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

Today saw gold turn sharply lower, partially in response to a rebounding European stock market. In other words, the safe haven asset has lost out in favour of the riskier stocks. What’s more, the dollar has risen once again today and this has weighed on some buck-denominated commodities, including precious metals and crude oil with WTI dropping to a fresh multi-year low sub-$44 a barrel. Meanwhile as the CFTC reported on Friday, bullish speculation has [...] Continue Reading ...


Denmark: will EUR/DKK peg survive?

Updated  Jan 29, 2015 11:30:00 AM Written by Kathleen Brooks

Denmark shocked the markets again today and cut its deposit rate even deeper into negative territory. The rate is now -0.5% from -0.35%, which is the lowest ever level. This follows last week’s cut to rates in the wake of the ECB meeting. The reason for the cut is to maintain the Danish krone’s peg with the EUR. The EURDKK rate had climbed since last week’s ECB decision and subsequent Danish action; however, after [...] Continue Reading ...


Stocks: earnings alert

Updated  Jan 29, 2015 10:55:00 AM Written by Kathleen Brooks

We are in the middle of Q4 2014 earnings season right now, with global companies reporting results for last year. So far a few themes are coming to the surface: the strong dollar is hurting US multinationals, and a sharp drop in the oil price is wreaking havoc in the energy sector. Next week we witness a further glut of global earnings, below are the biggest companies to watch out for.  [...] Continue Reading ...


AUDJPY: Don’t Try to Catch a Falling Knife

Updated  Jan 29, 2015 10:31:16 AM Written by Neal Gilbert

It has been an exciting early morning in North America as a variety of new developments have hit the news wires and rankled currency and futures markets. The follow through on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand dovishness from late yesterday continued to resonate through Asia and Europe as the NZD pairs retreated even further than the initial reaction. Not to be left out, the AUD felt the force of the RBNZ’s decision [...] Continue Reading ...


AUDUSD Crumbling Like the Roman Empire - More Losses Possible if .7700 Gives Way

Updated  Jan 29, 2015 8:50:00 AM Written by Matt Weller, CMT

My colleague Chris Tedder discussed the fundamental drivers for the big drop in AUDUSD during today’s Asian session, but the pair is moving so fast that it’s worth updating some of the key technical levels to watch. After a strangely delayed reaction to yesterday morning’s dovish article by RBA watcher Terry McCrann, the Australian dollar is falling in earnest heading into today’s US session. Like the Roman Empire, there have been cracks in [...] Continue Reading ...


NZD/USD breaks double-top neckline on dovish RBNZ

Updated  Jan 29, 2015 6:15:00 AM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

The Kiwi has made a significant technical breakthrough after the RBNZ shifted into a neutral policy stance overnight. As a reminder, the central bank dropped a line from its statement that read “…some further increase in the OCR is expected to be required at a later stage,” and changed it with “…we expect to keep the OCR on hold for some time.” They were also more downbeat on inflation and economic growth. This means [...] Continue Reading ...


AUDUSD can’t catch a break

Updated  Jan 28, 2015 11:11:59 PM Written by Chris Tedder

It seems yesterday’s inflation numbers only provided aussie bulls with false hope, at least in the near-term. While the Australian dollar rallied on the back of the Q4 CPI figures, the rally stalled above 0.8000 against the USD overnight. It now appears that bears have retaken control of AUDUSD in the light of reports that the RBA will cut the official cash rate at next Tuesday’s policy meeting. One article sends OIS rates in [...] Continue Reading ...


NZDJPY begins 2015 on a very sour note

Updated  Jan 28, 2015 7:39:08 PM Written by Chris Tedder

It has been a horrible start to the year for NZDJPY, even worse than NZDUSD’s 500+ pip sell-off over the same period. NZDJPY has lost over 700 pips (approximately 7.8%) since the beginning of the year. The only other currencies in the G10 basket (the 10 currencies that are generally viewed as the most liquid) to lose more ground against the yen are the Danish Krone, the Euro and the Canadian dollar. All three of [...] Continue Reading ...


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