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Live updates

WTI still in its bearish channel despite week-long rollercoaster ride

Updated  Feb 5, 2016 3:30:00 PM Written by Matt Weller, CMT

It’s been a roller coaster ride of a week for all major asset classes, but the moves in oil were perhaps the most harrowing. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil opened Monday’s trade near 34.00, fell by over 13% I the first two days of the week to bottom in the mid-29.00s, surged all the way back to a high near 33.50 yesterday, and finally turned lower today to trade back below 31.00 as of [...] Continue Reading ...


NFP Recap: Not as bad as it looks…

Updated  Feb 5, 2016 9:15:00 AM Written by Matt Weller, CMT

As the monthly tradition dictates, traders eagerly awaited today’s US jobs report with the (lack of) patience of a kid on Christmas. When the report was finally unveiled, it was by no means the anticipated “Red Ryder Carbine Action 200-shot Range Model air rifle with a compass in the stock and this thing which tells time (a sundial)” that Ralphie Parker desperately wanted in the classic 1983 film “A Christmas Story,” but it’s hardly as [...] Continue Reading ...


Gold’s impressive surge continues ahead of NFP

Updated  Feb 5, 2016 6:40:00 AM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

Gold’s 10 per cent rally since early December has certainly been impressive, but not a surprise given the on-going stock market turmoil and dollar weakness. The precious metal obviously pays no interest or dividends, and costs money to store. But then again with central bank currency war being at full throttle, yields are universally low or come with undesirably high risks. Given the current level of investor pessimism about the global economy, investors are unsurprisingly [...] Continue Reading ...


Research Note: January NFP Prep

Updated  Feb 4, 2016 3:20:00 PM Written by Matt Weller, CMT

The January Non-Farm Payroll report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 EST (13:30 GMT) with expectations centered on a headline print of 192k after last month’s stellar 292k reading. My model suggests that the report could miss even these subdued expectations,with leading indicators suggesting a Januaryheadline NFP reading of 160K. The model has been historically reliable, showing a correlation coefficient of 0.90 with the unrevised NFP headline figure dating back to 2001 (1.0 would [...] Continue Reading ...


Russell 2000: US stocks attempt to form near-term base

Updated  Feb 4, 2016 12:00:00 PM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

The US stock markets have been trying to stabilise in recent times following the wobble at the start of the year. Though concerns over the global economy are still there, sentiment has turned slightly positive after the major global central banks either expanded their unconventional policy tools or promised to do so, or in the case of the Fed and BoE, dropped their previously hawkish tone. Fourth quarter earnings results have not been too bad [...] Continue Reading ...


USD: Putting the buck’s beating into perspective

Updated  Feb 4, 2016 10:15:00 AM Written by Matt Weller, CMT

Ahead of tomorrow’s highly-anticipated NFP meeting, sentiment toward the US dollar could hardly be more pessimistic. The world’s reserve currency just saw its biggest 2-day drop in nearly a year and has now given up all of its gains from the start of the year. As we noted yesterday, the move has been driven primarily by fading expectations of any rate hike from the Federal Reserve this year, and the 10-year US treasury bond [...] Continue Reading ...


WTI crude oil stabilising

Updated  Feb 4, 2016 9:50:00 AM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

Yesterday the US Department of Energy published its latest summary of crude oil inventories for the week ending January 29, 2016. The report showed several indications that would normally cause oil prices to fall. For one, total US commercial crude inventories rose by 7.8 million barrels which lifted stocks to above 500 million barrels for the first time since 1930! The build was also significantly more than expected and higher than the 3.8 million barrel [...] Continue Reading ...


Dudley’s Declaration Develops into a Deluge of Dollar Disposal

Updated  Feb 3, 2016 3:10:00 PM Written by Matt Weller, CMT

It’s been a disastrous day for the world’s reserve currency: the US Dollar Index is trading down by over 1.5% to a new 3-month low near 97.00 and the greenback is falling against every one of her major rivals. As ZeroHedge gleafully noted on twitter, the US dollar index is seeing its biggest drop since Q1 2009, when the Federal Reserve first introduced quantitative easing. The proximate cause for today’s collapse appears to [...] Continue Reading ...


Will the DAX’s 9300 support level hold or collapse?

Updated  Feb 3, 2016 3:10:00 PM Written by James Chen, CMT

Germany’s DAX index has fallen sharply during the first half of this week along with its major stock index counterparts in the US and UK. As of Wednesday, this plunge has brought the DAX back down to approach what is perhaps one of the most important major support levels in recent months – 9300. This support area has already held up solidly three times within the past six months – one time in August, another [...] Continue Reading ...


USD/JPY: The short half-life of the BOJ’s radioactive negative interest rate decision

Updated  Feb 3, 2016 10:50:00 AM Written by Matt Weller, CMT

According to Wikipedia, Hydrogen-7 is the radioactive isotope with the shortest half-life at about 21 yoctoseconds (10-24 seconds). Of course, nothing in financial markets moves quite that fast (despite the best efforts of some algorithms), but the half-life of Friday’s surprise BOJ interest rate cut has been shockingingly short, even by 2016’s fast-moving market’s standards. While the decision to cross the “negative interest rate rubicon” represents a major shift from the BOJ, traders are [...] Continue Reading ...


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