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Live updates

Polls are closed! The No camp may have the edge in the Scottish independence race

Updated  Sep 18, 2014 6:31:24 PM Written by Chris Tedder

The polling stations in Scotland closed at 2200BST and there appears to have been a massive turnout. Reports coming from the North suggest that 90% of voters turned up, with 97% of the Scottish electorate registered to vote. This could be good for either side. The No camp is banking on it negating the SNP’s ground campaign and it may mean some “shy No’s”, if there are any, cast their votes. On the side [...] Continue Reading ...

Under-the-Radar Canadian Data has Big Implications for USDCAD

Updated  Sep 18, 2014 3:10:00 PM Written by Matt Weller, CMT

Traders are (rightly) obsessed with the outcome of Scotland’s Independence vote today, but we’ve discussed the issue ad infinitum over the past week (see here, here, here, and here for a few examples) so rather than beating a dead horse, we’ll check in with USDCAD. While it’s been lost in the cacophony of data in other G10 countries, Canada will also be releasing a couple of market-moving reports tomorrow. At [...] Continue Reading ...

Appetite for stocks sends Dow to fresh record

Updated  Sep 18, 2014 1:00:00 PM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

US stocks are up for a fourth day, extending their run after the Federal Reserve last night decided to keep the “considerable time” pledge until the first rate hike in the FOMC statement. This boosted stocks, sending the Dow and today the S&P to fresh record highs. Today’s mostly weaker data shows us why the Fed is still not as hawkish as some had thought they might have been. Although jobless claims were down by [...] Continue Reading ...

Scotland: is GBP too eager to price in a No victory?

Updated  Sep 18, 2014 12:20:00 PM Written by Kathleen Brooks

The pound has climbed to a 2 week high and with only a few hours of voting for the Scottish referendum left the market seems happy to price in a victory for the No camp. We should find out in the early hours whether or not the market is right to be so optimistic at this early stage. Two things have boosted expectations, firstly the last poll before the vote that showed the No camp [...] Continue Reading ...

USDJPY Goes Parabolic – Could We See 1.10 Next Week?

Updated  Sep 18, 2014 8:50:00 AM Written by Matt Weller, CMT

Just yesterday, we asked whether a “Fed-Fueled Fire” could drive USDJPY to a new 6-year high above 107.40 (see below for more). As it turns out, the Fed dumped a proverbial gallon of lighter fluid on the fire, and the ensuing bullish inferno has propelled USDJPY more than 150 pips higher. With the rally going full-on parabolic as we go to press, traders are wondering how far USDJPY could rise before taking a breather.  [...] Continue Reading ...

USD/CHF rally pauses as SNB disappoints, but bullish trend intact

Updated  Sep 18, 2014 7:45:00 AM Written by Fawad Razaqzada

The Swiss National Bank today decided to maintain the ceiling on the franc at 1.20 per euro and its interest-rate target range at 0 to 0.25 per cent. This was in line with the expectations. However, hopes that the SNB would impose negative deposit rates (like the ECB) were not satisfied and this led to a sharp rally in the franc. Nevertheless, the Bank stressed its “utmost determination” to do what it takes to keep [...] Continue Reading ...

The ECB’s big TLTRO disappointment isn’t really that bad…

Updated  Sep 18, 2014 7:20:00 AM Written by Kathleen Brooks

While the Scottish referendum is likely to dictate market direction for the next two days, this morning it was all about Europe. Back in June the ECB announced that it would launch another round of cheap loans for the banking sector to help boost lending to the real economy. These new loans are called the Targeted Long Term Refinancing Operation (TLTROs), and allow banks to borrow money just above the ECB’s main refinancing rate of [...] Continue Reading ...

GBPAUD: eyes on Scotland

Updated  Sep 18, 2014 12:38:43 AM Written by Chris Tedder

GBPAUD is testing an important resistance zone around its 200-day SMA as we await the results of Scotland’s independence vote. The outcome of tonight’s referendum could have a significant impact on the pound. If Scotland decides to secede from the UK then the GBP could be hit hard, as it would come as a surprise and have huge repercussions for the UK. On the other hand, a win by the no camp could spark a [...] Continue Reading ...

Beijing eases as economic data and property prices deteriorate

Updated  Sep 17, 2014 10:19:01 PM Written by Chris Tedder

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) plans to inject around $81bn into the banking system, according to reports coming from within China yesterday. The move by China’s central bank is partly in response to some obvious stress in the economy and also in anticipation of a period of tight liquidity. It temporarily breathed life back into Chinese equities before they were choked by concerns surrounding falling property prices. More concerning economic data Over the [...] Continue Reading ...

Fed Instant Reaction: What Do the Dots Say?

Updated  Sep 17, 2014 2:35:00 PM Written by Matt Weller, CMT

The highly-anticipated Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Statement just hit the wires, and there’s plenty for both bulls and bears to digest. Tackling the proverbial “Elephant in the Room” first, the committee chose to keep the “considerable time”[until the first interest rate hike] pledge in its statement. Many market participants thought that the central bank would remove this key phrase to start preparing traders for the inevitable hike, but the inclusion of that statement suggests the [...] Continue Reading ...

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

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