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Live updates

It’s a massive week for AUDNZD

Updated  Aug 3, 2015 12:45:55 AM Written by Chris Tedder

The Australian dollar is drifting lower in Asia after a softer than expected reading of private sector Chinese manufacturing PMI for July. Caixin’s Manufacturing PMI dropped to a two-year low at 47.8, well below expectations, July’s flash reading and the 50-mark which separates expansion and contraction. This paints a much bleaker picture of China’s manufacturing sector than the official figures which were released on Saturday; official manufacturing PMI was 50, down from 50.2 in June. [...] Continue Reading ...


RBA Preview: the policy scales are quivering

Updated  Aug 2, 2015 9:23:45 PM Written by Chris Tedder

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to leave the official cash rate at 2.00% at its policy meeting on Tuesday. There has been no indication over the last month that the RBA will deviate from its implicit dovish stance at this meeting. Economic data and events haven’t been shocking enough to wake the RBA from its slumber, despite a tightening of credit conditions in the housing market. Higher interest rates in the [...] Continue Reading ...


Will there be another Ruble rout?

Updated  Jul 31, 2015 9:40:00 AM Written by Kathleen Brooks

Back in Jan/ Feb the Ruble was under attack, USDRUB reached a record high of nearly 80.00, causing intervention from Russian officials and hasty rate hikes to stem the decline in the currency. Things calmed down for the RUB over the next few months, however, it started to drift higher in June, as US dollar strength gathered pace, and the RUB has been the worst performer in the emerging market FX space this week.  [...] Continue Reading ...


USDCHF Testing Bullish Trend Line after ECI Bombshell

Updated  Jul 31, 2015 9:25:00 AM Written by Matt Weller, CMT

If you have no clue what the “ECI” in the title is, you’re hardly alone. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly measure of the amount that companies and the government are paying their employees. Usually, this second-tier report barely even garners even a passing mention in the business news, but with the Fed’s recent shift to focusing on inflation as the last missing piece in the rate hike puzzle, some traders have [...] Continue Reading ...


NZDJPY’s hit from both sides

Updated  Jul 30, 2015 10:44:10 PM Written by Chris Tedder

NZDJPY peaked just above 94.00 at the end of 2014, before plummeting in January and again in June. The totality of the sell-off was almost 1,400 at its lowest point, despite gains in USDJPY. It was a widespread and a brutal sell-off in the kiwi that derailed the pair, with the commodity currency coming under assault from weaker commodity prices, soft risk appetite and a deteriorating outlook for interest rates. Bears don’t appear to [...] Continue Reading ...


July Month-End Model Points to Modest Dollar Weakness

Updated  Jul 30, 2015 3:05:00 PM Written by Matt Weller, CMT

Background: Traders often refer the impact of ‘month end flows’ on different currency pairs during the last few days of the month. In essence, these money ‘flows’ are caused by global fund managers and investors rebalancing their currency exposure based on market movements over the last month. For example, if the value of one country’s equity and bond markets increases, these fund managers typically look to sell or hedge their now-elevated exposure to that country’s [...] Continue Reading ...


Should the markets be worried about Greek political turmoil?

Updated  Jul 30, 2015 1:35:00 PM Written by Kathleen Brooks

In recent weeks the Greek crisis has receded into the distance, other concerns such as the volatility in the Chinese stock market and the timing of a potential first rate hike from the Federal Reserve have taken centre stage and the dominated market action. Understandably, once it looked like Greece would be able to secure a third bailout and accept its creditors conditions the markets started to look elsewhere for market-moving events. However, now the [...] Continue Reading ...


USDCAD: Under-the-Surface Strength in US GDP Could Target 11-Year High

Updated  Jul 30, 2015 8:50:00 AM Written by Matt Weller, CMT

While it’s typically the marquee event for any given week (if not the whole month), yesterday’s FOMC monetary policy statement was a bit of a dud (see “FOMC Instant Reaction: “Nearly” There, but “Further” Improvement Needed” for more). The central bank made only small tweaks to its monetary policy statement, careful not to tip the scales in the increasingly important “September vs. December” debate over liftoff for interest rates. The dollar saw a bit [...] Continue Reading ...


AUDNZD’s comeback run

Updated  Jul 30, 2015 1:09:37 AM Written by Chris Tedder

AUDNZD is making a comeback in Asia after suffering a huge sell-off in recent weeks. In mid-July the pair bounced off an important resistance zone around 1.1400 before drifting almost 500 pips lower to a support zone around 1.0900. Since then AUDNZD has regained some of this lost ground, despite softer than expected economic data out of Australia and mildly hawkish comments from RBNZ Governor Wheeler. Yesterday, Wheeler noted during a speech that whilst [...] Continue Reading ...


FOMC Instant Reaction: “Nearly” There, but “Further” Improvement Needed

Updated  Jul 29, 2015 2:25:00 PM Written by Matt Weller, CMT

As we noted in our FOMC preview report, analysts and traders were unanimous in their expectation that the central bank would leave interest rates unchanged in the 0.00-0.25% range, and the Fed provided no surprises on that front. That said, the world’s most important central bank still gave traders plenty to chew over in its first monetary policy statement of Q3. First, the headlines from this month’s statement [emphasis mine]: Earlier today, analysts coalesced [...] Continue Reading ...


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