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Research Results

Results for 'RIsk'

11 articles with this tag name

Research Note: February BOE and ECB Meetings

Updated  Feb 8, 2012 3:45:00 PM

February BOE and ECB Meetings Summary Outlook: On Thursday, Feb. 9 at 0700ET/1200GMT the Bank of England is set to announce its policy decision, followed at 0745ET/1245GMT by the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision and the 0830ET/1330GMT ECB press briefing. Below is our outlook for those events. BOE Outlook: The BOE’s MPC is unanimously expected to hold interest rates steady at 0.5%, according to Bloomberg surveys of analysts and our own view. The MPC  [...] Continue Reading ...

Weekly Strategy-Selling AUD on Risk-off Potential, RBA

Updated  Jan 31, 2012 3:45:00 PM

AUD/USD may be in the process of forming a top below 1.0755/65 highs from early Sept. and late October. On a short-term basis, AUD/USD may have also registered a double top at 1.0680/85, where a break below the 1.0525 neckline would confirm the pattern and target a move lower to 1.0365 on a measured-move basis. AUD/USD has experienced consistent strength since Mid-December as risk appetite has generally been buoyant and commodities have seen steady demand  [...] Continue Reading ...

Research Note: January FOMC Decision and Press Briefing

Updated  Jan 24, 2012 2:30:00 PM

January FOMC Decision and Press Briefing Summary Outlook: Tomorrow, Wednesday, January 25, at 1230ET/1730GMT, the FOMC is expected to announce a steady interest rate policy of between zero-0.25% and deliver a largely unchanged economic outlook in its accompanying statement, but possibly noting cautious optimism on some fronts. Just prior to the 1415ET/1915GMT press briefing by Fed Chair Bernanke, the Fed will also release the quarterly update to its forecasts for GDP, unemployment and inflation, and  [...] Continue Reading ...

Research Note: December US Employment Report

Updated  Jan 5, 2012 3:55:00 PM

December US Employment Report Summary Outlook: On Friday, January 6, at 0830ET/1330GMT, the US Dept. of Labor will release December 2011 jobs statistics. The consensus expectation for the change in non-farm payrolls (NFP) is +155K (prior +120K/range of estimates +80/+220K); the consensus for the change in private payrolls is +175K (prior +140K/range +130K/+230K); and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 8.7% from 8.6% (range 8.5%/8.8%), according to Bloomberg surveys of economists. The usual  [...] Continue Reading ...

Research Note: November US Employment Report (NFP)

Updated  Dec 1, 2011 3:45:00 PM

US Nov. Employment Report Summary Outlook: On Friday, Dec. 2 at 0830ET/1330GMT, the November employment report will be released. Expectations are for a non-farm payrolls change of +125K (prior +80K; range of estimates +75/+175), a private payrolls change of +150K (prior +104K; range +110/+190), and a steady 9.0% unemployment rate, according to Bloomberg surveys. This past Wednesday, the ADP national employment report, roughly comparable to private payrolls, showed a +206K increase, larger than the expected  [...] Continue Reading ...


Research Note: Nov. 2011 FOMC Meeting

Updated  Nov 1, 2011 3:45:00 PM

Research Note: Nov. 2011 FOMC Meeting Summary Outlook: On Wednesday, November 2 at 1230EDT/1630GMT, the FOMC is expected to announce a mostly steady policy decision, but the focus will be on whether the Fed engages in a third-round of asset purchases or QE3. Bernanke will hold his quarterly press briefing later at 1415EDT/1815GMT, where he will also present the latest revisions to Fed GDP and CPI forecasts. In recent weeks, three voting members of the  [...] Continue Reading ...

Tags: AUD, EUR, Fed, FOMC, QE3, RIsk

Research Note: October US Employment Report (NFP)

Updated  Nov 1, 2011 3:45:00 PM

Research Note: October US Employment Report (NFP) Summary Outlook: On Friday, Nov. 4 at 0830EDT/1230GMT, the US will report jobs data for October. The Bloomberg consensus survey for the change in non-farm payrolls (NFP) is for +95K (prior +103K), with a high estimate of +150K and a low forecast of +50K. The survey view of the change in private payrolls (PP) is for +125K (prior +137K), with a range of estimates from +155K to +75K.  [...] Continue Reading ...

Weekly Strategy-Buying EUR/USD on a positive resolution to EU debt crisis

Updated  Oct 20, 2011 4:40:00 PM

EUR/USD has entered into a consolidation range between 1.3650 and 1.3920 as European leaders grapple with the 2-year old debt crisis. Negotiations are entering a critical phase with upcoming summits on Oct. 23 and 26 where EU leaders Germany and France have pledged to deliver a 'comprehensive solution.' Markets are expecting another disappointing outcome according to a recent customer survey by a major German bank, and to be sure EU leaders have not missed a  [...] Continue Reading ...

Weekly Strategy-Sell AUD/USD for Another Wave of Risk Aversion

Updated  Oct 13, 2011 3:55:00 PM

AUD/USD has experienced an outsized rebound as markets were caught extremely short of risk following last weekend's pledge by German and French leaders to deliver a comprehensive solution to the Eurozone debt crisis. Whether or not they can actually come up with a credible plan remains to be seen, but regardless we think the global growth outlook is continuing to slow and that ultimately risk assets should move lower again. Our preference is to sell  [...] Continue Reading ...

Research Note: Oct.6 ECB preview and Oct 7 US NFP outlook

Updated  Oct 5, 2011 5:15:00 PM

Research Note: Oct. ECB Rate Decision (Thursday) Sept. US Employment Report (Friday) ECB Summary Outlook: On Thursday, October 6, at 0745EDT/1145GMT, the ECB is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 1.50%, according to the median estimate of Bloomberg survey. However, interest rate futures markets are pricing in about a 60% chance of a 25 bp rate cut and a number of economists have suggested the ECB may undertake 50 bps  [...] Continue Reading ...

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