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Weekly Insights

The Week Ahead: Week of September 16, 2016

Updated  Sep 16, 2016 2:00:00 PM Written by James Chen and Fawad Razaqzada

Highlights The past few weeks have seen exceptional back-and-forth speculation over the possibility of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates next week for the second time in over ten years. While the likelihood of this occurring remains low, at least from the markets’ perspective, key Fed speakers and major US economic data releases have alternately shifted the discussion from one side to another, often moving financial markets abruptly along the way. Next week, however, [...] Continue Reading ...


The Week Ahead: Week of September 9, 2016

Updated  Sep 9, 2016 1:30:00 PM Written by James Chen and Fawad Razaqzada

Highlights September’s parade of major central bank decisions began in earnest this past week and the results can be summed up in one word – unchanged. The week began with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), following through with the Bank of Canada (BoC), and ended up with the European Central Bank (ECB). All three central banks opted, as expected, to keep interest rates and monetary policy essentially unchanged. The upcoming two weeks bring even [...] Continue Reading ...


The Week Ahead: Week of September 2, 2016

Updated  Sep 2, 2016 2:30:00 PM Written by James Chen and Fawad Razaqzada

Highlights Technical Developments: USD/JPY Within the past two weeks, USD/JPY has risen sharply from its August base around the key 100.00 psychological level. This rise has been driven both by a continued strengthening of the US dollar on the previously increased expectations of a near-term Fed rate hike, along with an extended pullback for the Japanese yen. In the process of this climb, USD/JPY has broken out above its 50-day moving average and [...] Continue Reading ...


The Week Ahead: Week of August 19, 2016

Updated  Aug 19, 2016 2:00:00 PM Written by James Chen and Fawad Razaqzada

Highlights Technical Developments: EUR/USD The past week has seen EUR/USD rise sharply as the dollar weakened on lowered expectations of a near-term Fed rate hike. On Friday, however, the currency pair pulled back from key resistance imposed by the underside of a major bullish trend channel. That trend channel has defined the currency pair’s uptrend from the 1.0500-area lows of last December up to the sharp breakdown of the channel when the Brexit [...] Continue Reading ...


The Week Ahead: Week of July 15, 2016

Updated  Jul 15, 2016 2:30:00 PM Written by James Chen and Fawad Razaqzada

Highlights Technical Developments: GBP/USD If the Bank of England is giving strong indications of monetary policy easing next month and the Federal Reserve continues to be provided with evidence of an improving economy and rising inflation to support a near-term interest rate hike, conditions could soon be ripe for a further continuation of pressure on GBP/USD. Although the knee-jerk rise for sterling on Thursday was reasonable considering the BoE’s inaction, the prospect of [...] Continue Reading ...


The Week Ahead: Week of July 1, 2016

Updated  Jul 1, 2016 2:30:00 PM Written by James Chen and Fawad Razaqzada

Highlights Technical Developments: GBP/USD Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney made a speech on Thursday indicating that the central bank is likely to cut interest rates from the current record low of 0.5% within the coming months in reaction to last week’s Brexit outcome. Carney’s dovish speech helped lead to an immediate further surge for both UK and US stocks, while the British pound came under renewed and increased pressure. Immediately prior [...] Continue Reading ...


The Week Ahead: Week of June 24, 2016

Updated  Jun 24, 2016 2:30:00 PM Written by James Chen and Fawad Razaqzada

Highlights The outcome of Thursday’s historic EU referendum, in which nearly 52% of UK voters opted to leave the European Union, stunned markets globally in its immediate aftermath on Friday morning. The vote counting began with a surprisingly sizeable lead for Leave at over 60% of voters in Sunderland, and the pro-Brexit camp never looked back as it continued to maintain a modest advantage throughout the vote tally, even after the expectedly pro-Remain London votes [...] Continue Reading ...


The Week Ahead: Week of June 17, 2016

Updated  Jun 17, 2016 2:30:00 PM Written by James Chen and Fawad Razaqzada

Highlights Technical Developments: GBP/USD GBP/USD broke down a week ago below a key uptrend line that extended back to February's multi-year low of 1.3835. This past week, as the risk of a Brexit outcome continued to weigh on the pound in the run-up to the EU referendum, the currency pair followed-through on that drop to closely approach a key downside target at the 1.4000 psychological support level. Price rebounded off that support on [...] Continue Reading ...


The Week Ahead: Week of June 10, 2016

Updated  Jun 10, 2016 2:00:00 PM Written by James Chen and Fawad Razaqzada

Highlights Technical Developments: GBP/USD The event risks of the next two weeks, most notably the risk of a Brexit vote during the UK’s EU referendum on June 23rd, have begun to weigh more heavily on GBP/USD, prompting a fall from key resistance. Since the multi-year low of 1.3835 was hit in late February, the currency pair has been trading on a rising trend line as Brexit worries had begun to abate earlier in [...] Continue Reading ...


The Week Ahead: Week of May 27, 2016

Updated  May 27, 2016 3:00:00 PM Written by James Chen and Fawad Razaqzada

Highlights Technical Developments: EUR/USD As a result of forces combining to pressure EUR/USD lately, the currency pair has been in a sharp decline since it hit a new 8-month high at 1.1615 in early May. That high was established with a conspicuous “shooting star” reversal candle at the underside of a key uptrend line, indicating a clear bearish turning signal. Since that candle pattern formed, EUR/USD has spent the past three weeks falling [...] Continue Reading ...


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