ASX200 eases ahead of AU business and consumer confidence data

A strong rally on Friday helped the ASX200 close last week 1.9% higher at 7320, bringing a run of four straight losing weeks to an end.

The bulk of the last week’s gains coming from the Energy (+4.6%) and Financial (3.3%) sectors, supported by the Materials sector as the price of iron ore rebounded following the return of Chinese markets from the “Golden Week” holiday period.

However, some uncertainty has returned this morning after an unexpectedly soft U.S. jobs number on Friday that threatens to spill into earnings season.

Along with ongoing questions around energy markets, the stress in China’s financial system, unsolved U.S. fiscal issues, slowing growth, and Fed tightening.

In response to some of these issues, influential U.S. bank Goldman Sachs over the weekend, cut their forecasts for U.S. growth this year and in 2022, blaming a delayed recovery in consumer spending.

In Australia this week, we get a look at how this morning’s exit from lockdown and the formal tightening of macroprudential policy by APRA last week has affected Business and Consumer confidence in Australia.

The NAB business conditions and confidence survey for September (tomorrow 11.30 am Sydney time) are expected to improve, as is consumer confidence (Wednesday 10.30 am Sydney time) due to rising vaccination rates and reopening roadmaps.

The decline from the August 7632.8 high is viewed as a correction, not a change of trend. However, a recovery back above trend channel resistance at 7420ish is needed to indicate the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed.

Until then, a retest of the support provided by the September 7145 low, reinforced by the 100 day moving average at 7110, remains possible.   


 

ASX200 Daily Chart 11 oct

 

 

Source Tradingview. The figures stated areas of October 11th, 2021. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.  This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation




 

Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.