Canadian CPI should solidify a BOC taper next week

With all the impressive data for September, and the BOC already in tapering mode, the inflation data should clear the way for the central bank to taper by another C$1 billion per week


Canadian headline YoY CPI rose to 4.4% in September vs 4.3% expected and 4.1% in August.  This is the highest reading since February 2003!  In addition, the YoY Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose to 3.7% vs 3.6% expected and 3.5% in August.  Last week, Canada released its preliminary PPI data for September at 15% vs 14.7% in August.  Inflation continues to rise in Canada, just as it is in most of the world. 

What is inflation?

Other impressive data from Canada for September include the Employment Change, +157,100 vs +65,000 expected and +90,200 in August and well as the Ivey PMI with a print of 70.4 vs 64.2 expected and 66 in August. With all this impressive data and the BOC in the process of tapering, the inflation data should clear the way for the central bank to taper by another C$1 billion per week.  This almost completes their bond purchasing program, bringing bond buying down from C$2 billion per week to C$1 billion per week.

What is tapering?

USD/CAD continues to hang around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the June 1st lows to the August 20th highs, near 1.2366.   (See our Super Inflation Wednesday article for more on the charts of USD/CAD). 

As the Canadian Dollar was strengthening against the US Dollar, it was falling vs its commodity siblings, Aussie and Kiwi.  AUD/CAD formed a low on October 11th near 0.9105, testing the same lows from August 24th.  If price breaks above the September 8th highs of 0.9375, it will confirm a double bottom and target near 0.9670!

audcad daily

Source: Tradingview, Stone X

Resistance above the neckline of the double bottom is at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the February 25th highs to the October 11th lows, near 0.9445, which confluences with the 200-Day Moving Average at 0.9456. There is close support just below current levels at the 50-Day Moving Average of 0.9220, then the October 11th lows at 0.9150.  If price falls below the recent lows, the 50% retracement from the March 2020 lows to the February 24th highs at 0.9036 offers strong support as well.


Trade AUD/CAD now:  Login or open a new account!


As mentioned above, NZD/CAD has been on a rise of its own over the last week.  The pair came within 19 pips of reaching the low on June 18th. Given the large range of the high in between the 2 lows, some would consider this to be close enough to a double bottom. If price breaks above  0.9042 (currently much higher) than the double bottom will be confirmed, and price will target all the way up at 0.9490!

nzdcad daily

Source: Tradingview, Stone X

NZD/CAD is currently trading near the 200-Day Moving Average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the February 24th highs to the June 18th lows, near 0.8878.  If price is to reach the neckline of the double bottom, it must close above current resistance and the 50% retracement level from the same time period at 0.8964.  Support is at today’s low of 0.8832, which is also the 50-Day Moving Average.  However, below that level prices can fall back down to 0.8600! If price falls below the recent lows, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the March 2020 lows to the February 24th highs at 0.8516 offers strong support as well.


Trade NZD/CAD now:  Login or open a new account!


With the BOC ready to continue tapering, possibly as soon as next week, it’s no surprise that the Canadian Dollar is stronger vs the US Dollar.  However, when compared to other commodity currencies such as Aussie and Kiwi, the Canadian Dollar is actually the weakest of the bunch!  Watch to see if Loonie reverses vs these pairs if the BOC tapers!

Learn more about forex trading opportunities.


Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Open an Account