Daily Forex Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Fri 28 Jun) ahead of G20

Ahead of G20, GBP/USD remains below resistance while bulls in USD/JPY and AUD/USD are showing signs of exhuastion.

EUR/USD – Tight consolidation above 1.1340 key support

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  • Continued to trade sideways after a test on the 1.1340 key short-term pivotal support. It has now started to evolve within a minor “pennant” contracting range configuration, maintain bullish bias for a potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.1420.
  • On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below 1.1340 invalidates the bullish scenario for a slide back towards the 1.1225/1180 support zone in the first step.

GBP/USD – Bears remains in control

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  • Staged the expected bearish breakdown from the micro “pennant” range configuration in place since 26 Jun 2019 low as per highlighted in our previous report (click here for a recap). Maintain bearish bias with a tightened key short-term pivotal resistance at 1.2730 for a further potential push down to retest the major support zone of 1.2560/2500 (also the ascending trendline from Oct 2016 swing low).
  • On the other hand, a break above 1.2730 negates the bearish tone for a retest on the recent range resistance of 1.2785. Only an hourly close above 1.2785 validates a corrective rebound scenario towards the next resistance at 1.2915 (also the descending trendline from 13 Mar 2019 high).

USD/JPY – Potential residual push up before medium-term down move resumes

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  • Inched higher as expected and almost hit the upside/target of 108.20 as per highlighted in our previous report (printed a high of 108.16 in yesterday’s early European session.
  • Elliot Wave/fractal analysis suggest that the minor corrective rebound in place since 106.75 low of 25 Jun 2019 may have a residual upleg left before the medium-term down move sequence resumes. Maintain bullish bias above 107.25 key short-term pivotal support for a residual potential push up to target 108.20 with a maximum limit set at the 108.70 key medium-term resistance.
  • On the other hand, an hourly close below 107.25 revives the bears for a downleg towards the next support at 106.60/50.

AUD/USD – Potential residual push up to end corrective rebound

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  • Continued its slow grind upwards as expected as per highlighted in our previous report. Maintain bullish bias with an adjusted key short-term pivotal support now at 0.6985 for a potential residual push up to target 0.7020 follow by the key medium-term resistance at 0.7050 (also a Fibonacci expansion/retracement cluster & the minor ascending channel resistance from 18 Jun 2019).
  • On the other hand, an hourly close below 0.6985 triggers the start of an impulsive downleg sequence to target the next near-term support at 0.6900 in the first step.

Charts are from eSignal

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