Dollar bides time ahead of ECB and US GDP

The general theme in our recent posts have been about a possible correction or a retracement of some sort in US dollar.

The general theme in our recent posts have been about a possible correction or a retracement of some sort in US dollar. The greenback has indeed stopped going up but it hasn’t exactly sold off. Well, at least not yet anyway. Market participants are probably waiting to hear from the ECB tomorrow before exerting their force on the EUR/USD, the most important currency pair as for as the Dollar Index is concerned. Others are probably waiting to find out how the world’s largest economy performed in the second quarter. US GDP will be published on Friday and is probably the most important piece of data this week.

Ahead of these important events, even the most bullish of dollar speculators have taken their foot off the gas. Profit taking in major pairs such as the GBP/USD, which had been hit the hardest of late, and USD/JPY following its sharp gains recently, has weighed on the dollar. Meanwhile strong Canadian data and a rebound in oil prices has helped the North American nation’s currency gain ground in favour of its southern neighbour. Even the prices of noninterest-bearing gold and silver have rebounded modestly with bargain hunters dipping their toes in as the metals sold off and dropped to key technical support levels recently.

Dollar Index tests trend line

As a result of the modest pullback in the dollar, the Dollar Index has moved lower to test the rising trend line around 94.30-94.50 area, where it had bounced slightly when this report was written. However, if the index goes below this area then we may see further technical selling pressure, potentially resulting in a deeper correction. In this potential scenario, the DXY could then drop below the next recent low at 93.71 and probe the liquidity that would be resting below it. And if there’s acceptance below that level then we may see an eventual drop to the 92.65 support level next. Meanwhile in the event the DXY breaks above the 95.50 resistance then this would probably clear the way towards the next level of resistance at 97.15, formerly support.

Source: and Please note, this product is not available to US clients

Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Open an Account