EUR/JPY heads back down after dovish Draghi

Not much about the European Central Bank’s (ECB) public pronouncements on Thursday was unexpected. Interest rates remained unchanged this time, as anticipated, after the surprisingly aggressive easing actions presented at last month’s meeting. ECB President Mario Draghi struck an overall dovish tone, reiterating the need to address persistent conditions of low inflation and economic growth risk. At the same time, however, Draghi urged patience in the face of prolonged weakness in inflation, hinting that any further easing will need to wait. Thursday’s ECB press conference skewed towards the dovish side primarily because Draghi kept open the potential for lower rates, in contrast to last month’s conference, when he remarked that he did not expect interest rates to decline any further.

As a result of the dovish, but somewhat mixed, messages from the ECB, the euro rode a volatile wave of market sentiment on Thursday. The currency initially surged due to the conspicuous absence of any rate changes, but then dropped abruptly during and after the press conference when it became clear that Draghi had become more dovish than he was last month.

For EUR/JPY, this price movement was seen as a sharp rise to a two-week high of 124.95, where the 50-day moving average is currently situated, followed by an equally sharp drop that swiftly reversed those gains. As it currently stands, EUR/JPY is trading not far above its new 3-year low below key 122.00 support that was just hit early this week. That low formed a well-defined double-bottom in conjunction with the prior low at 122.00 that was hit in late February and early March.

While the opposite side of the currency pair from the euro, the Japanese yen, has pulled back in the past few days, the bullish trend for the yen has been strong within the last several months. Barring any effective currency intervention by the Bank of Japan to weaken its currency, the yen has a likelihood of continuing its strength after the current pullback. In this event, a more dovish-leaning ECB combined with a supported yen could prompt a breakdown for EUR/JPY below major support at the noted 122.00 double-bottom level. If a sustained breakdown occurs, it would confirm a continuation of the longstanding downtrend for EUR/JPY, with the next major downside targets at the 120.00 psychological level followed by the key 119.00 support level.

Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

The markets are moving. Stop missing out.

Open an Account