FX Brief: NFP and Trump EU trade speech eyed

A summary of news and snapshot of moves ahead of the US session.

  • FX update: Safe-haven JPY has remained the strongest major currency for the second day after President Donald Trump shocked the markets with a series of tweets that the US would impose 10% tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods that are not currently taxed. As a result, the safe haven yen was the strongest major currency on the day and the risk-sensitive Aussie was the weakest. The Dollar Index, which hit a new 2019 high before selling off yesterday, is lower again as investors wonder whether the escalation in US-China trade dispute may increase the odds for further Fed rate cuts after the central bank opted for a hawkish cut of 25 basis points in mid-week.
  • Stocks continue to struggle amid trade concerns while crude oil has managed to rebound after taking a nosedive the day before. Gold remains underpinned ahead of US jobs report.
  • Up next: The focus is turning to US jobs data, due for publication at 13:30 BST (08:30 ET). See our NFP report preview article. Then Trump will speak at 18:45 (13:45 ET) on Trade with European Union, in Washington DC. Will he announce EU auto tariffs?
  • Data recap: Beating expectations were retail sales from Australia (+0.4% m/m vs. +0.3% expected), Italy (1.9% m/m vs. 0.4%) and Eurozone (+1.1% m/m vs. +0.3%), while UK construction PMI (45.3 vs. 46.0), Swiss CPI (-0.5% vs. -0.4%) and Spanish Unemployment Change (-4.3K vs. -21.4K) all disappointed.

Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Open an Account