Oil At 13 Month Low, More Downside To Come?
Fiona Cincotta February 26, 2020 7:26 AM
Oil heading to $46.70?
Aggressive selling continues in oil as fears deepen that the rapid spread of coronavirus will lead to a global pandemic and potentially to a global recession.
API reported a smaller than forecast inventory build of 1.3 million barrels, versus expectations of a 3-million-barrel increase. Today’s EIA weekly inventories report is expected to show a build of 2.3 million barrels.
As coronavirus panic takes over, traders are become increasing more concerned with how global oil demand will be hit and less interested in weekly inventory data. There seems to be little interest in the steep decline in Libyan output or whether the OPEC+ group decides to trim production again.
It is doubtful that OPEC+ will announce further output cuts right now, without having further information on loss of demand. There is a good chance that they will wait for fresh economic data to assess the impact of coronavirus first. Even if OPEC did announce additional production cuts, we are more likely to see some short covering now rather than a change of trend.
Levels to watch
Crude is down 1.7% today and almost 8% so far this week. Crude trades at a 13-month low and below its 50, 100 and 200 moving average, with a bearish outlook.
Immediate support can be seen at $49 (today’s low), a break through here could open the door to $48.30 (8th Jan ‘19 low) prior to $46.70 (4th Jan’19 low).
Resistance csan be seen at $50.42 (today’s high). This could lead towards resistance at $52. (yesterday’s high), a breakthrough there could negate the current bearish trend.
Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.