Trump Announces 'Phase One' Trade Deal To Be Signed Mid-Jan

With phase one close to being signed, markets can now obsess over phase two.

President Trump announced via Twitter on Tuesday that US and China will finally sign the elusive phase one trade deal on 15th of January. Taking place at the White House, high level representatives of China will be present. Moreover, Trump also said he will go to Beijing himself “at a later date” where talks will begin for phase two. With phase one close to being signed, markets can now obsess over phase two.

Given how long it has taken to reach phase one (which isn’t yet ‘in the bag’) then it’s anyone’s guess as to how long the next phase will take. Yet with the US elections looming, it remains in Trump’s best interest to get it over the line sooner than later, which inadvertently puts him in a weaker spot in terms of negotiating. Whilst Trump has publicly said he doesn’t need a trade deal before the election, it seems unlikely he won’t want phase two complete. So, we could well see delaying tactics from China in order to squeeze extra concessions for phase two.


S&P500 E-mini futures gapped higher on Tuesday and now trade just below their record highs. A small bullish candle on New Year’s Eve respected the 10-day eMA and suggests a swing low could be in at 3213. Yet if 3213 is to be broken, it points towards a deeper correction and not a trend reversal.

Looking at seasonality for the S&P500, January tends to fare well as it’s posted average positive returns over the past 30, 10 and 5 years. Median returns are all positive over these lookback periods, and it’s seen bullish closes 60% of the time over the past 30 years.




Time will tell if January will see it break to new high, but the trend structure on S&P500 is clearly bullish with its series of higher lows and remains above its bullish trendline.

  • Near-term bias remains bullish above 3213.
  • A break below support suggests a deeper correction is on the cards, and bulls can then refer to the bullish trendline to see if a swing low is carved out.
  • A break above 3254 assumes bullish continuation. As this would be a fresh all-time high, we’d use an open upside target.

Related Articles

Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.