Turkey Reports Huge Drop in Inflation

The large miss in inflation data has set up expectations of another rate cut

Headline CPI data released earlier today from Turkey for September came in much worse than expected at 9.26% vs 15.51% expected and 15.01% last.   The large miss in inflation data has set up expectations of another rate cut by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) when they meet on October 24th.  Rates are currently at 16.5%, with expectations for a cut of 1.5% to 15.0%.  Rates were as high as 24% earlier this year.

USD/TRY, which is currently trading near 5.6965, is coiling in a large symmetrical triangle on a daily timeframe and riding the 50 Day Moving Average at 5.6719. 

Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com

On a 240-minute time frame, USD/TRY put in a failed breakout of a descending wedge and is retesting the breakout point of the descending trendline at 5.6930.  Bulls will look to buy this retest for a move higher.  First resistance area is between yesterday’s daily highs and horizontal resistance near 5.7239.  Above that is the 38.2% retracement from the August 26th spike high to the October 1st low at 5.777, and then the 50% retracement level of that same time period at 5.8206.  First support is the descending trendline of the descending wedge (where price is currently sitting just above) at 5.6930.  Below that, support is the lows from October 1st at 5.6631, and then horizontal support at 5.5915. 

Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com

Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Open an Account