Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, S&P500

EUR/USD heads towards 1.1850 on USD strength. S&P 500 futures trade mildly lower ahead of CPI data.

Charts (3)

EUR/USD heads towards 1.1850 on USD rebound

US Dollar halts its decline as US Treasury yields stabilize.

The risk off mood as investors wait cautiously for a packed afternoon of risk events favours the greenback over the Euro.

US CPI data, 10 year bond auction & House of Representatives vote on $1.9 trillion stimulus bill all coming up

ECB rate decision is due tomorrow

Where next for EUR/USD?

Having failed to hold 1.19 EUR/USD is trading lower -0.2%. It trades below its 20 & 50 sma on the 4 hour chart a bearish chart.

The RSI is supportive of further losses with some way to go oversold territory.

Immediate support can be seen at 1.1840 Monday’s low before 1.18 the round number and support from a descending trendline dating back to mid January.

Any attempt at a recovery would need to break over the 20 sma as 1.1890. A move beyond here could open the door to horizontal resistance at 1.1950 Feb low ahead of 1.20 the 50 sma. Beyond here the bulls could gain traction and eye 1.2115 the monthly high.

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S&P  500 slips cautiously lower ahead of CPI

After rebounding yesterday, the S&P 500 futures points to mild losses in cautious trade ahead of a big afternoon. 

A strong reading from US CPI following from a stellar jobs report on Friday could boost expectations of higher interest rates sooner than initially expected.

Where next for the S&P 500?

The S&P 500 has been trading in an ascending channel since early November. After hitting a fresh all time high in mid February at 3966, the price has eased lower. 

The S&P 500 trades at the lower ban of the ascending channel and is currently testing the 50 sma. A move below this level could see the 20 sma and lower band of the channel at 3833. 

The RSI points to a neutral bias, so it could be worth waiting for thw outcome of CPI data before taking a position.

A break out of this channel could see the sell off extended towards 3720 March low and 3660 Feb low.

Should the 50 sma hold a move towards the fresh all time high at 3966 could be eyed.

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