Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, WTI crude oil

EUR/USD under pressure on covid concerns, PMIs in focus. WTI crude oil consolidates losses ahead of OPEC meeting.

Charts (4)

EUR/USD looks lower on covid concerns, PMIs in focus 

EUR/USD is under pressure amid renewed US Dollar strength after Biden presents his infrastructure plan

Meanwhile a third national lockdown in France and rising covid concerns in Europe are hitting demand for the Euro. 

Europe Manufacturing PMI & US ISM manufacturing PMI in focus as well as US jobless claims 

Where next for EUR/USD? 

EUR/USD is under pressure trading below its 20 & 50 sma on the 4 hour chart and below its descending trendline dating back to the end of February indicating a bearish bias 

The bears have so far struggled to break through 1.17 this week’s low. It could be prudent to wait for a move below this level before placing any aggressive sell bets. Beyond 1.17 the bears could target 1.1610 a support from late September.  

Any move above 1.1740 the sma and horizontal resistance at 1.1760 yesterday’s high could see more bulls jump in. Resistance at 1.18, round number, confluence of the descending trendline and 50 sma and this week’s high which could prove a tough nut to crack. 

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WTI consolidates losses ahead of OPEC meeting 

Crude oil prices are prices are on the rise on Thursday, recouping some of the losses from the previous session ahead of the OPEC meeting today. 

The OPEC+ group are expected to extend output curbs in the face of rising covid cases, tighter lockdown restrictions in some regions, such as Europe and also India & Brazil. 

Yesterday OPEC+ lowered its demand outlook for this year by 300,000 barrels per day 

Where next for WTI crude oil? 

WTI declined 1.7% in the previous session and is consolidating losses is early trade. 

WTI trades below its 50 & 200 sma on the 4 hour chart. It also trades below its descending trendline dating back to the 14 month high struck on March 8 indicating a bearish trend.  

The RSRI is in negative territory indicative of additional losses, although the RSI is attempting to point higher so it could be prudent to wait for confirmation above the 50 sma or below yesterday’s lows. 

Any move lower would need to take out yesterday’s low of 58.85 before the bears look towards 57.24 the March low. A break below here could open the door to a much deeper selloff towards 54.00 

Any recovery in the price would need to overcome resistance at 60.00/60.15 the psychological level and 50 sma. A move beyond here could see 61.00 attacked, the descending trend line resistance and yesterday’s high prior to 62.15 the 200 sma and this week’s high. 

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