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UK elections: final thoughts

So, the wait is almost over and soon we will find out the outcome of the UK general election. The past reaction of the pound to the opinion polls suggest that a Conservative majority would be the best outcome for sterling and possibly the FTSE, while a hung parliament or an unlikely victory for the Labour party would have the opposite impact. Soon we don’t have to worry about the polls any more.  But there is one final one which will be the most important: the exit poll, which is expected to come in at 22:00 BST. As soon as this is released, we are expecting to see a sharp move in the pound. Then, from around 23:00 BST we will start getting the actual results, starting with Sunderland which is a Labour strong hold. Results between 00:00 and 02.00 BST should indicate whether the exit poll is accurate. It is during this period that we will probably get the biggest moves in the pound. In particular, results from Tooting and Wrexham, due in around 01:30 BST, will be rather important. These constituencies are Labour-held marginals. Thus, if the Conservatives manage to win here then Theresa May would probably be on course to increase her majority quite substantially. Likewise, results from Conservative-held marginals Bury North and Thurrock will be very important to watch; these are expected to come in around 02:00 BST. In the event the Conservatives lose either of these constituencies then that could be a sign that the party is at risk of losing its majority and worries about a possible hung parliament could weigh on the pound and FTSE futures. Unless the vote is very close, by around 03:00 BST we should have a sense of what the final outcome will be and as such the pound should be on a pre-determined direction by then. Good Luck! 

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