US FX Handover: Dollar Dumped After NFP Whiff
Matt Weller, CFA, CMT June 7, 2019 3:56 PM
See a summary of the top FX themes and trends from today's US session!
- The May Non-Farm Payrolls report came in soft, with the BLS estimating that the US economy produced only 75k net new jobs in May, well below the expected 175k reading. Adding insult to injury, the previous reports were also revised lower by 75k jobs and hourly earnings grew at just 0.2% m/m.
- The weak jobs report prompted traders to increase bets on a June or July rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the market-implied odds of a cut rising to 28% and 90% respectively, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. The greenback was the weakest major currency on the day.
- Meanwhile, Canada created nearly 28k new jobs in May, well above consensus estimates of 5k, and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4%, a multi-decade low. The loonie was the strongest major currency on the day.
- Oil prices extended their recovery today, gaining nearly 3% more.
- See the key storylines we’ll be watching in the coming week, including price action in the pound following PM Theresa May’s resignation.
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