USD/CAD Drops Back Below 1.30 as NAFTA Optimism Abounds

What a difference a week makes!

What a difference a week makes!

A little over a week ago, we noted that USD/CAD could continue to gain ground because, “there had been little in the way of progress on a new NAFTA deal with negotiations entering ‘crunch time’ a mere 63 days until the US midterm elections” (see “USD/CAD’s Big Breakout Has Bulls Eyeing June’s Peak” for more). Over the last eight days, that outlook, or at least traders’ perception of it, has changed dramatically.

Adding to the steady drumbeat of upbeat rhetoric around getting a NAFTA deal done, Mexican negotiator Guajardo noted that he sees a “high chance” of a US-Canada trade deal. According to Guajardo, another Mexican negotiator is heading to Washington DC to iron out the details. That said, it’s not all sunshine and butterflies for the NAFTA talks, as Canadian PM Trudeau once again emphasized that no NAFTA deal would be better than a bad deal for Canada. According to a Reuters (citing unnamed Canadian sources) the most optimistic scenario would be for a deal in principle next week, so expect the headlines and negotiations to carry over into the weekend at a minimum.

Beyond NAFTA, traders have a couple of other reasons to be bullish on the loonie. For one, the weekly oil inventory figures from both the EIA and API showed big drawdowns in oil inventories, pushing the price of Canada’s most important export up 4% from Monday’s close as of writing. In addition, market participants are starting to turn their eyes toward the Bank of Canada’s meeting next month, where the swaps market is pricing in about an 85% chance that the central bank will raise interest rates again. With the BOE, ECB, BOJ, and other major central banks likely on hold through the remainder of the year, the BOC’s hawkishness is supporting the loonie.

Turning our attention to the chart, USD/CAD saw what ultimately turned out to be a false break above 1.3175 resistance last week. Rates formed a large “bearish engulfing candle on Thursday before dropping off sharply over the last two days. With the near-term technical momentum and fundamental tone both pointing toward more loonie strength, USD/CAD bears may seek to push the pair toward last month’s 3-month low near 1.2900 next (that is, barring another big shift in rhetoric surrounding the ongoing NAFTA talks!).

Source: TradingView,

Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Open an Account