Top Story

USD/TRY Launches Out of Descending Wedge

Last Thursday, Turkey’s inflation data came out much worse than expected at 9.26% vs 15.51% expected and 15.01% last.   With this drop in inflation, we discussed the possibility of USD/TRY breaking out of descending wedge on a 240-minute timeframe.  Today, price not only broke out of the descending wedge, but also broke out of a symmetrical triangle on the daily timeframe, which USD/TRY has been in since August 2018.   Price gapped higher on the open and is up over 2.5% on the day.

Source:  Tradingview, FOREX.com

Over the weekend, President Trump made a decision to pull US forces out of northeastern Syria.   Today President Trump defended his decision, which makes it possible for Turkey to launch an attack on Kurdish fighters. The Turkish Lira was hit hard, and USD/TRY continued higher throughout the day.

The target for the breakout of a descending wedge is a retracement of the whole wedge.  Now that price has broken through the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the August 26th September 30th at 5.8206, the top of the descending wedge is in sight near 5.85.  There is a strong resistance zone there, from 5.8500 to 5.8635, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the previously mentioned dates.  If price breaks through there, it may tear up to 6.00, the spike highs from August 26th.  First support is at the highs if the false breakout from October 2nd at 5.7575.  Below that, the next support level is the gap from overnight down to 5.6978.

Source:  Tradingview, FOREX.com

Watch for more comments from public officials, tweets from Trump regarding the situation, or military escalations in the area to determine the next direction for USD/TRY.


Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

The markets are moving. Stop missing out.

Open an Account