Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Plunges Back Down Under

Australian flag
By :  ,  Sr. Technical Strategist

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar plunges back below 2023-open after rallying nearly 7% off yearly low
  • AUD/USD now eyeing initial uptrend support- risk for price inflection
  • Resistance 6816, 6874/91 (key), ~6950s– support 6708/6731, ~6692, 6627 (key)

The Australian Dollar plunged more than 1.2% since the weekly-open with AUD/USD poised for a third consecutive daily loss. The move now exposes the first test for the monthly breakout and the focus is on possible exhaustion / price-inflection into uptrend support. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD short-term technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this AUD/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Australian Dollar Price Chart  AUD USD Daily  Aussie Shortterm Trade Outlook  AUDUSD Technical Forec

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar short-term outlook we noted that AUD/USD was, “testing key support at the objective yearly range-lows – looking for possible exhaustion / inflection into this zone (watch the weekly close).” The support zone in focus was at 61.8% retracement of the 2022 advance, the October high and the yearly opening-range lows near 6547/65. An intra-week plunge turned just pips from the 61.8% extension of the February decline at 6451 (low registered at 6458) with Aussie staging a rally of more than 6.8% off that low.

An eleven-day stretch cleared yearly downtrend resistance (red) and was interrupted by just one-day until last week when Aussie was abruptly halted at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly-range near 6891. A three-day pullback has now taken back more than 2% and the immediate focus is possible downside exhaustion into initial support- just lower.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Australian Dollar Price Chart  AUD USD 240min  Aussie Shortterm Trade Outlook  AUDUSD Technical Fore

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off the April / May lows with the median-line now highlighting key near-term support at 6708/31- a region defined by the April high-day close and the 38.2% retracement of the monthly advance.

Note that the 200-day moving average rests just lower near ~6692 – both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection. A break / close below this threshold would suggest a larger correction is underway towards 6673 and the 61.8% retracement of the recent advance at 6627- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Yearly-open resistance stands at 6816 backed by the weekly-open / 61.8% retracement at 6874/91- a breach / close above this level is needed to mark uptrend resumption towards the highlighted slope confluence near ~6950s and the November 2020 low / 2020 open at 6991-7017.

Bottom line: Despite a yearly-range of nearly 10%, Aussie is now less than 0.9% from the 2023 yearly open- this is still a slug fest. In the near-term, the AUD/USD rally has exhausted into Fibonacci resistance- just ahead of the uptrend. From a trading standpoint, we’re looking for possible downside exhaustion on a move towards the median-line. Rallies should be capped by the yearly-open IF price is heading lower on this stretch- look for a larger reaction on a drive towards 6700 for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar weekly technical forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD trade levels.

Key Economic Data Releases

 Australia US Economic Calendar  Key AUD USD Data Releases  AUDUSD Weekly Event Risk  Aussie Shortter

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

Open an account in minutes

Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution.

Live Trading Webinars

Our interactive webinars, led by our industry experts, come highly recommended and can help provide your trading with the edge it needs.
Economic Calendar