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USD/JPY forecast: Stalemate looms on BOJ intervention threat, range trading favoured

The threat of intervention from the BOJ has increased, likely limiting upside for USD/JPY in the near to medium-term. But extremely wide interest rate differentials and buoyant markets suggest it shouldn’t be significantly lower. It points to a stalemate for yen bulls and bears but opens the door for traders to play existing ranges.

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Yesterday 11:52 PM
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Forex Seasonality – April 2024: GBP/USD’s Most Bullish Month, USD/CAD’s Most Bearish

GBP/USD has historically seen its strongest gains in April, while USD/CAD has seen its worst performance in April and is testing resistance at its 4-month highs near 1.3600.

Energy

Crude oil analysis: WTI steady ahead of inventories data

Crude oil looks set to end March and the first quarter higher. Oil prices have been buoyed by easing demand concerns and sustained supply cuts by the OPEC+. Meanwhile WTI technical analysis points higher, for as long as $79-$80 support area holds.

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japan_08

USD/JPY, FTSE Forecast: Two trades to watch

USD/JPY rises to a 34-year high & is on intervention watch. FTSE falls despite Chinese industrial profits rising.

china_02

USD/CNH looks eerily similar to USD/JPY right now. Multi-year highs incoming?

There’s not much difference between the USD/CNH and USD/JPY on the weekly charts, other than the former appears to be lagging the latter right now. With the yen falling to fresh multi-year lows even with the threat of intervention from the BOJ, will the yuan be next?

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Yesterday 05:44 AM
Research

USD/JPY analysis: Gearing up for a breakout?

Watch out for Japanese intervention, Tokyo CPI and US core PCE inflation data this week, as the dollar rebounds after a weaker start. USD/JPY technical analysis point to a bullish breakout

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March 26, 2024 03:30 PM
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Explainer: the PBOC USD/CNY fix and how it impacts FX markets

With the influence of the Chinese yuan stet to increase further, this primer looks at the PBOC's USD/CNY daily ‘fix’, an event every trader should become familiar with given its importance to currency markets.

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March 26, 2024 04:11 AM
japan_03

USD/JPY forecast: Japan’s weak yen headache risks becoming a full-blown migraine

Japanese officials are once again attempting to talk down the high-flying USD/JPY, arguing moves over the past few weeks do not reflect fundamentals but speculative activity. Sitting in a technical pattern that points the risk of substantial upside ahead, their weak yen headache may soon turn into a full-blown migraine.

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March 25, 2024 11:40 PM

Crude oil rises on production cuts, ASX 200 set to retrace? Asian Open

With geopolitical tensions on the rise and Russia announcing production cuts as infrastructure continues to face attacks, the path of least resistance for WTI crude oil appears to be higher.

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March 25, 2024 10:27 PM
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USD/JPY, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch

USD/JPY holds steady amid intervention threat. Oil rises as geopolitical tensions rise.

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March 25, 2024 09:17 AM
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EUR/USD struggled last week when it was given an invitation to rally

EUR/USD was poor last week, finding little benefit from the Federal Reserve delivering a dovish surprise at its March FOMC meeting. With little event risk to speak of in the week ahead, and trading through its 50-day moving average, selling rallies is favoured.

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March 25, 2024 02:55 AM
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AUD/USD net-short exposure reached a record high last week: COT report

An increase of bearish bets against AUD/USD pushed net-short exposure to a record high among large speculators.

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USD rallies on hawkish Fed, although USD/JPY falters below 152: Asian Open

The market appears to be doing the BOJ's work by refusing to test 152, which paints a bearish bias over the near term for USD/JPY.

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March 24, 2024 09:12 PM
japan_09

USD/JPY eyes 152, Crude oil stabilises above $80: Asian Open

An SNB cut and dovish comments bolstered the US dollar to bring USD/JPY less then 30-pips from 152. WTI crude oil is also showing signs of stability above $80.

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March 21, 2024 10:02 PM
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Reddit IPO: Everything you need to know about trading Reddit

Find out everything we know about the Reddit IPO including the date, share price, valuation and how to trade Reddit stock.

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March 21, 2024 04:05 AM
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Gold, USD/JPY, TLT ETF: Assessing trade setups for a Fed determined to cut rates

A macro guide for screening trade setups for a higher growth, higher inflation environment, featuring a bullish breakout, a potential bullish breakout and an important market indicator.

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March 21, 2024 02:08 AM
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Fed Meeting Analysis: FOMC and Powell Still Looking For Excuses to Cut

Fed Chairman Powell sounded like someone who was looking for an excuse – any excuse – to cut interest rates in his press conference.

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March 20, 2024 06:53 PM

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japan_08

Japanese yen slides post BOJ, do we need to be on intervention alert?

The fact that the yen was broadly weaker following the BOJ's historic hike shows that it was not only priced in, but traders wanted more. Yet the rapid weakness of the yen brings back a familiar question; will the BOJ begin verbal intervention?

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March 19, 2024 10:17 PM
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USD/JPY analysis: What’s next for JPY and USD amid diverging policies?

Will the yen make a comeback with BoJ finally ending negative rates? Attention now turns to FOMC policy decision, with traders expecting the median dot plots to point to 2 rate cuts in 2024 – but is a hawkish Fed already priced in? USD/JPY technical analysis points higher, but do watch out for a potential false breakout.

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March 19, 2024 04:30 PM
Yen, Euros and dollar currency bills and notes

USD/JPY, DAX Forecast: Two trades to watch

USD/JPY rises despite the BoJ hiking rates and ahead of the Fed's rate decision tomorrow. The DAX struggles for direction ahead of wage growth and German ZEW economic sentiment data.

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The US dollar could be undervalued if commodities continue to rip higher

Commodities are soaring, and of they continue to do so the US dollar could be undervalued as the case for any Fed cuts could evaporate.

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March 19, 2024 02:03 AM
japan_02

AUD/USD, USD/JPY in focus for RBA and BOJ meetings: Asian Open

1-day implied volatility for USD/JPY has risen to 320% of its 20-day average ahead of today's BOJ meeting, to show volatility is expected. And the best chance of AUD/USD enjoying its own volatility is if the RBA finally ditch their hawkish bias.

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March 18, 2024 09:05 PM
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Crude oil analysis Strong Chinese demand fuels rally

Crude oil analysis: China set to import record volumes of Russian oil in March, as oil extends weekly breakout ahead of a busy week for financial markets.

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March 18, 2024 04:00 PM