3 Reasons USD/JPY is Hitting 2019 Highs
Matt Weller, CFA, CMT February 11, 2019 5:39 PM
FX trade is well underway for the week, and so far, last week’s theme of US dollar strength has carried over into this session’s trade. The most interesting development among the major currencies is today’s big breakout above 110.00 in USD/JPY, a move that’s taken the pair to its highest level year-to-date.
From our perspective, there are three major factors pushing USD/JPY higher today:
1) Japanese Traders Out on Holiday
While not necessarily a bullish or bearish factor per se, it’s notable that Japanese banks are closed for National Foundation Day. This means that there’s lower liquidity than usual, especially around the yen crosses. As a result, it takes less capital to move the market if there are any impactful fundamental or technical developments.
2) Positive US-China Trade Talk
On the fundamental side, one of the market’s biggest worries has seen some tentative signs for optimism. Low-level US and Chinese officials are meeting in Beijing this week, with higher-level officials (Mnuchin and Lighthizer) set to join the talks later this week.
According to a report from Axios, President Trump’s advisers are exploring holding a summit between Chinese President Xi and Trump next month. As many analysts have noted, it will likely take such a meeting between the two leaders to reach an agreement, so the news that one may be in the works has boosted the buck at the expense of the safe haven yen.
3) Technical Breakout
The positive vibes from the trade talks prompted USD/JPY to break above the key 110.00 resistance level we highlighted last week. This led to a quick cascade of stop buy orders, adding technical fuel to the fundamental flame. Moving forward, that level may provide short-term support on intraday dips, with bulls potentially looking to push the pair toward 111.00 or 111.40 next.
Source: TradingView, FOREX.com
Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.