Employment

Over the past few hours we have seen the Fed hint at multiple cuts this year, and Australian employment data outperform to send AUD/USD above 66c.

AUD/USD traders will keep a close eye on US inflation data to decipher Fed policy, Australia's employment report to see if another month of strong job losses ensues.

Last week we noted that bond yields could trump economic data this week, and for the most part they did. We can also extend that comment into next week, especially if they continue to retreat and loosen their grip on bearish sentiment and allow risk assets to rebound. Highlights in next week’s calendar include the NFP and ISM PMI reports, RBA and RBNZ monetary policy meetings, the quarterly Tankan survey for Japan and Canada’s employment report.

The Australian dollar has spiked higher across the board after the economy delivered another rate-hike defying report. And that has seen AUD/JPY and AUD/JPY break out of their recent consolidations to the upside.

The RBA will be keeping a close eye on today's employment figures from Australia. If they continue to outperform then it keeps some pressure on the RBA to at least strike a hawkish tone at their next meeting, or potentially hike if next week's inflation figures are too hot. And that places AUD pairs in focus, and today we're looking at a potential long setup on AUD/JPY at the lower end of its trading range.

A weak lead form Wall Street weighed on the Aussie overnight, with today’s employment miss adding to its downside pressure.

Whilst GBP as under pressure from talk of tax hikes, GBP/USD remains above a key support level ahead of today’s ISM and JOLTS job opening reports.

There’s not a huge amount of data today, which puts the US nonfarm payroll and Canadian employment report into focus as the main calendar event.

We’ve seen cracks appearing in the US economy in recent months. So now they’re making their way over to employment reports it puts NFP on high alert for weakness.

The leading indicators point to slightly below-expectation reading in this month’s NFP report...see what they're saying and possible ways to trade it!

This will be the final NFP report before the next Fed meeting in early May, where traders are currently split between expecting a 25bps and a 50bps rate hike.

We expect the BOC to reiterate that the Canadian economy is on track for a full recovery next year, and that an interest rate hike cycle could begin as soon as H1...

Today’s employment set should gather extra attention, given comments made by BOE’s Governor Andrew Bailey yesterday.

Commodity currencies were under pressure overnight. The Norwegian Krone (-1.42%) led the rout followed by the Australian dollar (-1.29%) with the New Zealand dollar (-1.03%) rounding out the top three.

Tomorrow at 11.30 am Sydney time, Australian labour force data for September is due to drop.

With a string of positive jobs data from Canada, the BOC may feel like they are in a better position to continue with their tapering at the next meeting