Equities

The Nasdaq 100 is finally showing signs of breaking down from its 2-month sideways range between about 17,800 and 18,400 ahead of the Magnificent Seven stocks' earnings reports.

While the Nasdaq 100 has broken its 2024 uptrend, traders continue to buy the dip, generating a bullish signal on Thursday. That points to possible upside not only for US tech but also Japan’s Nikkei 225.

US banks kick off Q1 earnings season on Friday, with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and BlackRock reporting. The results come as the US economy continues to show resilience but as sticky inflation could mean that rates stay high for longer. Delta Airline is also releasing Q1 numbers.

The S&P 500 rose to an all-time high last week. This week, attention will be on US non-farm payrolls, global PMIs, and Gold prices and what they mean for equities such as GE, Nike and Newmont Corporation.

Two very different indices, two similar trading setups. Will traders be willing to continue chasing record highs next week? The unconvincing price action to end the week warns of downside risks.

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Recent price action in Nikkei 225 futures points to upside risks this week, indicating confidence among traders that even with major events such as rate decisions from the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve, along with Nvidia’s GPU Technology Conference, the bull market that helped propel the underlying index to record highs is anything but finished.

China’s state-endorsed equity market recovery continues to go from strength to strength, building upon a lengthy and growing list of measures being rolled out by policymakers designed to coerce traders into buying. Perhaps the broader bear market trend may be coming to an end?

If there was ever a day for Japan’s Nikkei 225 to overcome its demons and take out the record high set in December 1989, few screen better than today. The ducks look to have lined up for bulls. If we can’t set a new peak, it may provide a subtle warning that the market has run too hard, too fast.

Despite lacklustre corporate earnings and rebound in US bond yields, the spectacular rally in AUD/USD and Australia’s ASX 200 only gathered pace in the second half of Thursday’s trading session, leaving both markets eyeing off potential topside breaks.

Australia’s labour market is undeniably slowing, bringing the prospect of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) leapfrogging the US Federal Reserve when it comes to which central bank will cut interest rates first.

Having been a major benefactor from the soft-landing narrative, the combination of higher global interest rates and stretched valuations has Australia’s ASX 200 index under pressure.

Hang Seng futures don’t look like they’re about to embark on a face-ripping rally, no matter how cheap valuations are and no matter how much government encouragement is doled out.

The RBA continues to see the risk that rates may increase again despite delivering updated forecasts showing faster progress in bringing inflation back to within its target band. For AUD/USD traders, there was more interest in the rally in Chinese stocks and currency than what the bank had to say.

China’s “National Team”, the nickname given to state-backed entities tasked with rescuing markets, are doubling their efforts, upping purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) while restricting certain undesirable activities detrimental to stock prices. So far, indices such as the A50 are rallying.

Bond yields, especially in the United States given the US dollar’s role as the global reserve currency, are perhaps more important to Japan than many other parts of the world.