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NFP Preview: Is the US Dollar Poised for a Bounce Back?

After slipping for the past three weeks, the US Dollar Index is testing key previous support at the 103.00 level, potentially setting the stage for a bounce on solid jobs data.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Bulls Respond to First 2024 Test Below $2k

Gold has been resilient so far in 2024 even as USD strength re-appeared. The big question now is whether bulls can find a more favorable outcome on tests of resistance at $2,032 or $2,050.

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February 17, 2024 02:00 AM
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U.S. Dollar Price Action Webinar: DXY, Gold, Bitcoin, FX Majors

The U.S. Dollar set another fresh high yesterday, extending the bullish structure that’s priced in so far this year.

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U.S. Dollar Post-CPI: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, XAU/USD (Gold)

The U.S. Dollar broke out and set another fresh 2024 high this morning as the currency continues to claw back Q4 losses.

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Dollars and Sense: The Short-Term Case for US Dollar Strength

How interest rate differentials, scarcity, and falling liquidity could work together to boost the US dollar

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February 6, 2024 02:32 PM
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NFP Preview: Why the US Dollar Could Be More Volatile Than Usual

The recent consolidation in the US Dollar Index and the Fed’s renewed data dependence could lead to a more-volatile-than-usual reaction in the US dollar.

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February 1, 2024 04:02 PM
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US dollar pares earlier losses, gold bears eye $2000: Asian Open

Price action on the US dollar remains choppy, but the bias remains for a run for 104. And that could weigh on gold as bears eye a run towards $2000.

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January 24, 2024 09:17 PM
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US dollar bulls resurface, ASX 200 tests well for today: Asian Open

The US dollar shows the potential to continue higher despite a wall of key moving averages. And according to forward returns analysis, the two days prior to Australia Day tend to bode well for the ASX 200.

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January 23, 2024 10:25 PM
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USD: Behind the U.S. Dollar, the Global Reserve Currency

The U.S. Dollar plays an incredibly important role in the global economy and while ‘De-dollarization’ claims may pop up, the currency set a fresh all-time-high for usage last year and remains the world’s primary reserve currency.

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USD bears have a rethink, GBP and AUD positioning diverges: COT report

The US dollar index rallied in line with last week’s bias on assumed short-covering. AUD/USD bears are retuning whilst traders pushed net-long exposure higher, making GBP/AUD longs of interest over the coming weeks.

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Gold remains in demand, but less so against the US dollar

Gold is currently down -1.8% in January, and I see further downside potential due to the growing case for a stronger US dollar. But that doesn’t mean gold will fall against everything by the same degree, if at all.

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January 17, 2024 04:29 AM
Research

Strong payroll data doesn’t deter equity bulls with Nasdaq up and Russell 2000 down

Today’s payroll data reiterated the run of strong labor market data with wages growing at 4% a key concern for the Fed. Futures markets reduced the probability of early rate cuts, but traders made few changes to their bullish stance on equities, bonds, gold or the dollar.

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Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Bears Show Up to Ring in the New Year

EUR/USD was range-bound for much of last year but there were still multiple shorter-term trends to pick on. With markets geared up for cuts to begin this year, could EUR/USD push into a larger-scale trending condition?

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Dow challenges peak, Bitcoin’s mainstream moment is expected

The Dow Jones has quickly shaken off yesterday’s late losses is challenging record highs despite the comedown of the Fed minutes yesterday. The market remains optimistic over the state of the US economy, supported by today’s various jobs sector data releases; the flip-side is that too much strength could slow the pace of interest rate cuts with the Fed “likely at or near its peak rates” according to December policy meeting minutes yesterday. The Bitcoin rally will be tested pretty soon, as the SEC is intended to approve (or not) Bitcoin ETFs.

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Oil prices rallies above $70 support, Russell 2000 dips on profit-taking

Oil prices appear to have found support at $70 per barrel, with news of US stock building, further OPEC+ production cuts and Middle East tensions spurring buying action. The Fed’s December meeting minutes were cagey on the outlook for interest rates in 2024. JOLTS labor market data pointed to further weakness, good news for inflation.

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Nasdaq tumbles as bonds sell off, Gold holds historic highs

Equity, bond, and gold investors are pricing in large rate cuts in 2024, starting in March, but this week’s jobs data could spoil the fun. A bullish December for stocks might have pulled forward the typical January rally, spurred by the belief that the Fed is about to pivot. US Treasuries sold off in morning trade, with worries about the appetite to digest the major volume of new issues. There is some risk of disappointment in the interest rate outlook, notably with commodity prices indicating persistent inflation so there is less chance of a rate-cutting bonanza.

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Russell 2000 leads US stocks, Gold hits another all-time high

The Russell 2000 was again the strongest US index, continuing a trend evident for two months. Gold prices touched $2,082.5 per ounce this morning, buoyed by a mixture of risk aversion and the anticipation of lower interest rates. This morning’s economic data showed strong durable goods demand and a modest decline in a key inflation gauge, the ‘PCE deflator’, generally supporting rate cuts early next year.

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Russell 2000 continues recent run, Oil prices dip despite output cuts

US equity markets bounced back in morning trade, again led by the Russell 2000, after yesterday’s worries about the pace of rate cuts, as traders ignored anything but a rosy rate cutting in 2024. Oil prices slipped, down 1.3%, despite various indications that oil output will be cut next year by Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s top two producers.

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Consumer’s increasingly confident, but investors take a breath with major indexes and gold at all-time highs

Consumer confidence rose sharply in December, casting a shadow on early rate cuts and stalling the recent equity market rally aside from continued strength in the Russell 2000. Equity markets and gold still look set to end the year on all-time highs, Bitcoin has close to doubled, with interest rate optimism seemingly pulling forward the traditional January rally.

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Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD V-Shaped Reversal Stalls Before 1.1000

EUR/USD has tested the 1.1000 handle twice over the past month and hasn’t yet been able to leave it behind. But bulls look ready for a third round and there’s some big drivers on the calendar for Friday.

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December 20, 2023 07:17 PM
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US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, Gold

While there were numerous twists and turns this year the US Dollar is nearing completion of 2023 with a doji to show for this year’s trade. But next year is loaded with a presidential election along with Yen-themes that will likely remain front and center for FX traders.

Research

Russell 2000 leads markets towards eighth winning week, but is the Fed saying too much?

The rate-sensitive Russell 2000 index led markets higher this morning, pointing to an eighth week of successive market gains as Fed officials continued to quell hope of rate cuts as soon as next March, arguing that policy is not fixed and will be data-driven. We consider the real impact of Fed jawboning on the economy and financial markets. The Bank of Japan held interest rates below zero yesterday, giving no clues as to when it might exit negative levels.

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USBRL should reflect inflation for the US, statements from Fed officials, COPOM minutes, RTI, and economic agenda in Congress

Bullish factors Statements from Federal Reserve officials may want to realign expectations of an interest rate cut by the American central bank after Powell's comments this week triggered a sharp global rally for risky assets, strengthening the American currency. Minutes of the COPOM and Quarterly Inflation Report (RTI, an acronym in Portuguese) should show a more benign external scenario for the Central Bank, maintaining expectations of cuts to the basic interest rate (SELIC), which in turn reduces the attractiveness of Brazilian assets and weakens the real. Bearish factors PCE index should maintain a trend of gradual price moderation in the US and suggest that the Fed has room for monetary easing, increasing bets on interest rate cuts by investors and weakening the American currency. The possibility of advancing important economic agendas for the government in the National Congress can ratchet down the perception of fiscal jeopardy for Brazilian assets and contribute to strengthening the BRL. Due to Christmas and the New Year, the Weekly Exchange Overview will not be published on December 22 and 29, returning on January 5, 2024. Happy Holidays!!!