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The US dollar rally has stalled, and the longer is fails to extends its gains the greater the odds of a pullback. For today, flash PMIs have placed GBP/USD and EUR/USD into focus.

Crude oil demand outlook will come into a sharp focus this week with the release of the global manufacturing PMI data, US GDP and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation this week. Still, Middle East tensions remain the key driver of short-term price action. Meanwhile, WTI technical analysis suggests the longer-term trend is still bullish.

US GDP, Core PCE and BoJ policy are among the risk events this week for the USD/JPY currency pair, as the focus turns to sticky inflation and elevated interest rates narrative from Middle East concerns for now. USD/JPY technical analysis point to a potential rally above 155.00.

EUR/USD futures traders are on the cusp of flipping to net-short exposure, and managed funds are increasing their short exposure to gold and crude oil.

S&P 500 and the FTSE fell last week after the market pushed back Fed rate cut expectations and as geopolitical tensions hurt risk sentiment. Look ahead; US core PCE will be a key focus next week, as well as earning season with Tesla earnings and UK bank's earnings.

155 has become the latest 'glass ceiling' for the rapid rise of USD/JPY. And with a key US inflation report, BOJ meeting and potential for risk-off sentiment next week, this key level could be tested and prompt a response from Japan's central authorities.

WTI crude oil was up over 4% during the Asian session on reports that Israel’s middles had struck a site in Iran, further fans fears of a broader-scaled war in the middle East.

Crude oil appears toppy after a mammoth rally since February, unable to push higher despite some seriously strong tailwinds stemming from geopolitics, supply curbs and ongoing strength in the US economy.

The Nasdaq 100 is finally showing signs of breaking down from its 2-month sideways range between about 17,800 and 18,400 ahead of the Magnificent Seven stocks' earnings reports.

The S&P 500 extends losses to third week amid raised geopolitical risks and rising bond yields. Concerns over the escalation of the situation in the Middle East is at the forefront of investors’ minds. The situation remains volatile with Israel seeking revenge for Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Saturday.

GBP/USD held at a five-month low after jobs data and ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech. Oil rose after China's GDP growth and amid ongoing Middle Eastern tensions.

USD/JPY is less than a day's trade from 155, a level an ex-FX diplomat warned could trigger an intervention if breached. WTI crude oil seems to have solid support above $84, to hint at a swing low.

Sitting at 34-year highs and with market positioning nearing extreme levels, further USD/JPY upside is likely predicted on two factors this week: ongoing US economic exceptionalism and no dramatic escalation in Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions.

Net-short exposure to yen futures rose to a 16-year high last week, and now within reach of its record. Asset managers appear to be on the right side of the US dollar trade, with large speculators remaining net-short despite the dollar's rally. Net-long exposure for oil and gold futures continued to trend higher, but neither are at levels which screams sentiment extreme. And asset managers are on the cusp of flipping to net-long exposure to the VIX.

Big, ugly and unusual given the escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. You can see why traders are questioning whether the big reversal in gold last Friday may signal we’ve seen a near-term top after a rollicking start to 2024.

Earnings season starts to ramp up this week with earnings from Netflix, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble are among those reports that investors will be watching closely.