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S&P 500 analysis: Will the recovery hold as focus turns to tech earnings?
S&P analysis: As markets have started Q2 poorly, amid interest rate uncertainty and raised geopolitical risks, investors are relying on earnings to provide boost, starting with Netflix today. S&P 500 technical analysis suggests more losses could be on the way, with 5,000 on the bears' radars.
USD/JPY analysis: Focus turns to FX intervention as traders eye 155 handle
USD/JPY is on intervention watch as the dollar index weakens for now, although the greenback remains fundamentally supported. For a sustained rise in the yen, the BOJ will need to address Japan’s still ultra-easy monetary policy as FX intervention can only provide temporary relief.
China A50, Hang Seng, USD/CNH: Economic revival, state intervention creates ample trade opportunities
Chinese economic data is beating expectations at rates not seen since reopening to the world in 2023. And with the government and People’s Bank of China playing an active role in supporting mainland markets, it’s not surprising to see Chinese assets performing comparatively better than others across Asia right now.
USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: Even the strongest market trends are under threat
USD/JPY upside looks limited in the near-term, hindered by narrowing interest rate differentials and perceived increased risk of Bank of Japan intervention. The stronger yen may add to growing downside momentum in the Nikkei 225, putting two of the strongest market trends in 2024 under threat.
Crude oil analysis: WTI drops amid demand concerns
Middle East concerns should keep the downside limited for crude oil, after prices slid 3% as demand concerns intensified on weaker Chinese industrial data and amid the prospects of higher interest rates for longer. WTI technical analysis suggests the longer-term trend remains bullish, with the first short-term support level to watch coming in around $82 area.
DAX outlook remains unfavourable despite support from earnings
Earnings have helped to lift the mood so far in today's session, but risk appetite could be limited amid ongoing geopolitical risks and uncertainty over interest rates outlook. DAX technical analysis shows the German index is still residing in a bearish channel, despite the bounce.
EUR/USD, DAX may be down – but they’re not fully out
The US dollar has dominated sentiment for markets this past week, but with signs of momentum waning there may be hope for a rebound on EUR/USD and DAX - even if only minor.
WTI crude oil forecast: Price action unconvincing despite strong tailwinds, fat tail risks
Crude oil appears toppy after a mammoth rally since February, unable to push higher despite some seriously strong tailwinds stemming from geopolitics, supply curbs and ongoing strength in the US economy.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: “Magnificent Seven” Q1 2024 Earnings Preview
The Nasdaq 100 is finally showing signs of breaking down from its 2-month sideways range between about 17,800 and 18,400 ahead of the Magnificent Seven stocks' earnings reports.
Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and DAX analysis: Technical Tuesday - April 16, 2024
The S&P 500 extends losses to third week amid raised geopolitical risks and rising bond yields. Concerns over the escalation of the situation in the Middle East is at the forefront of investors’ minds. The situation remains volatile with Israel seeking revenge for Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Saturday.
GBP/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch
GBP/USD held at a five-month low after jobs data and ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech. Oil rose after China's GDP growth and amid ongoing Middle Eastern tensions.
USD/JPY eyes 155, WTI crude oil looks set to bounce: Asian Open
USD/JPY is less than a day's trade from 155, a level an ex-FX diplomat warned could trigger an intervention if breached. WTI crude oil seems to have solid support above $84, to hint at a swing low.
USD/JPY forecast: New threat emerges as biggest risk to the rally
Sitting at 34-year highs and with market positioning nearing extreme levels, further USD/JPY upside is likely predicted on two factors this week: ongoing US economic exceptionalism and no dramatic escalation in Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions.
US dollar, yen, VIX, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report – April 15, 2024
Net-short exposure to yen futures rose to a 16-year high last week, and now within reach of its record. Asset managers appear to be on the right side of the US dollar trade, with large speculators remaining net-short despite the dollar's rally. Net-long exposure for oil and gold futures continued to trend higher, but neither are at levels which screams sentiment extreme. And asset managers are on the cusp of flipping to net-long exposure to the VIX.
Gold price reversal resembles blow-off top into escalating geopolitical tensions
Big, ugly and unusual given the escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. You can see why traders are questioning whether the big reversal in gold last Friday may signal we’ve seen a near-term top after a rollicking start to 2024.
Weekly equities forecast: Netflix, Bank of America, Procter & Gamble
Earnings season starts to ramp up this week with earnings from Netflix, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble are among those reports that investors will be watching closely.
DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 Forecast: US Indices Falter on War Fears
US indices are seeing diverging performance, with the DJIA looking relatively weak and the Nasdaq 100 uptrend remaining healthy.
EUR/USD forecast: Divergent interest rate outlook, geopolitics deliver potent bearish mix
With most major events scheduled outside the continent, EUR/USD direction looks set to be dictated by external influences next week. Preference is to sell rallies given the technical breakdown on Friday.
Gold and silver are doing exactly what you’d expect after breaking key resistance
Gold and silver are doing exactly what you’d expect after breaking long-running resistance. And that's before you consider fundamentals such as geopolitics, central bank purchases, limited mine development, rising inflation expectations and troubling fiscal outlooks from some of the world’s largest economies.
USD/JPY closes above 153 for the first time since 1990: Asian Open
Another day, another milestone for USD/JPY which closed above 152 for the first time in nearly 34 years on Thursday.
DAX analysis: German index tests 18K support ahead of ECB and more US inflation data
DAX technical levels and factors to watch on the German index as it tests the pivotal 18,000 level with the focus turning on the ECB rate decision, while US sticky inflation concerns make unwelcome return ahead of PPI data.
EUR/USD, USD/JPY Forecast: Two trades to watch
EUR/USD looks to ECB rate decision after hot US inflation. USD/JPY rises to 153.24 post US CPI & ahead of PPI.
EUR/USD, DAX forecast: ECB, US PPI and Fed speakers on tap
All eyes are on today's ECB meeting, Fed speakers and US PPI figures to see if it can drive ERUR/USD lower or spark a rebound, after it suffered its worst day in 13 months on Wednesday.