Latest Research

Rumours are circulating that 3 Conservative lawmakers are to follow the 7 Labour MPs and defect to the Independent Group later today.

With the Fed dropping its hawkish bias, and with recent US data deteriorating slightly, bond prices should remain supported and yields undermined going forward

Despite today’s slight pullback in risk assets, the start of 2019 has been very good for equities, commodities and government bond prices.

At a good $1325 per ounce, the precious metal is trading just under its 2019 high of $1326 it hit at the end of January. Gold is now not too far off the 2018 peak of $1366, where I think it is potentially heading to over the coming weeks.

Sentiment turned positive apparently on renewed hopes over a US-China trade deal, as the third round of talks between the two parties since Presidents Trump and Xi agreed on a truce in December 2018, concluded.

Today’s latest macro pointers from some of the major developed economies have disappointed expectations – quite badly, in some cases – fuelling fears over an economic slowdown.

The EUR/USD and other euro crosses remain pressured by growing signs of a slowdown in the Eurozone economy. An interest rate increase in Q3 looks increasingly unlikely now given the recent fundamental developments — or lack thereof — with the Brexit situation still unresolved and the Eurozone economy ailing.

Despite the Federal Reserve dropping its hawkish bias, the US dollar has been quite resilient. The closely-watched Dollar Index rose for the eighth consecutive day until yesterday when it was hit by profit-taking, before rebounding again today

After being hit by profit-taking yesterday, the US dollar was trading mixed on Wednesday morning when this report was written. The greenback was holding its own well against the euro and the pound but was down against some commodity dollars. FX market participants were looking forward to US consumer inflation data, due for release at 13:30 GMT (08:3...

The major FX pairs further extended their losses earlier this morning, before rebounding to turn green on the day as North American participants slowly made their way to their trading stations.

When you consider that the US dollar is again on the rise, stocks are firmer and government bonds are down, you would expect to see the safe-haven and buck-denominated metal struggle. Yet, it is outperforming all the major dollar pairs.

After a big rebound in January, the US stock markets appear a little tired. Investors are weighing the negative impact of soft economic data on future company earnings against the positive impact of interest rates remaining low for longer, with several major central banks recently turning dovish.