Latest Research

We may have to wait until Thursday and Friday to see volatility.

With the market yet to draw a firm conclusion about the long-term implications of the Fed’s decision, Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference will be particularly important. If, like the statement seems to imply, he leaves the door open for another interest rate cut next month, the greenback’s initial strength may fade into the close. On the other ha...

Overall, it is reasonable to expect that the FOMC will not cut more than 25 basis points today, which should disappoint Trump and those looking for a deeper rate cut. If so, the dollar could very well go up in terms of immediate response given that this is already priced in.

With the Fed widely expected to cut rates later today, we take a look at market returns for FX majors, commodities and the S&P500 following such an event.

In order to support inflation, we expect the central bank to cut interest rates by just 25bps this week and leave the door open to another small cut in September. Beyond correcting the over-ambitious last rate hike or two from late last year, the Fed will likely prefer to remain on sidelines unless the economy takes a sharp turn lower.

The week ahead features interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan, US Federal Reserve and Bank of England, as well as top their data culminating in US jobs report on Friday.

Dovish comments from Fed officials has put a 50bps cut in July back onto the table for markets, and markets were quick to respond.

After last week’s solid US jobs report, the dollar index rallied back above 97.50 as some aggressive traders considered the possibility that the Fed may hold off on cutting interest rates. Today’s testimony implies that a rate cut is a “done deal,” and the greenback has dropped back toward 97.00 as a result.

The Fed all but confirmed the U-turn that many were expecting. Whilst rates remained on hold, almost half of voting members now see two rate cuts this year.

See why the most important number in the jobs report won't be the number of jobs created and what it will mean for Fed policy!

After last week’s developments, traders are now pricing in a 96% chance of at least one rate cut by December, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. In fact, traders are pricing in a nearly 80% chance of two interest rate reductions this year...

A strong rejection of support places a clear line in the sand for bulls, who appear set to target the December 2016 highs.