Latest Research

See why the most important number in the jobs report won't be the number of jobs created and what it will mean for Fed policy!

After last week’s developments, traders are now pricing in a 96% chance of at least one rate cut by December, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. In fact, traders are pricing in a nearly 80% chance of two interest rate reductions this year...

A strong rejection of support places a clear line in the sand for bulls, who appear set to target the December 2016 highs.

Last month, the Federal Reserve made a major shift toward neutral policy, with 11 of the 17 FOMC members anticipating no further interest rate changes this year (see “FOMC Recap: Doves on Parade!” for more). Against that backdrop, this month’s meeting is more likely to provide an update to how the central bank is viewing the US economy, rather than ...

Overall, the BEA estimated that the US economy grew at a 3.2% annualized rate in Q1, well above expectations of 2.2% growth. While President Trump will no doubt extol the headline growth, the details are less impressive under the hood.

After a quiet start to the week, market-moving data has finally picked up, with traders keying in on three major events...

See a summary of the top themes and trends from today's US session!

After such an unexpected dovish tilt, you would have expected to see further immediate follow-through in momentum for the dollar and stocks.

As we noted in yesterday’s FOMC Preview report, the US central bank was never going to make any immediate changes to policy, leaving traders to read Powell and Company’s tea leaves for implications about future tweaks. As it turns out, the tea leaves were clear: The Fed has undergone a major dovish shift.

The GBP/USD and the other pound crosses are understandably very sensitive to Brexit-related headlines given that we are fast approaching the March 29 exit date.

Spoiler alert: The Federal Reserve won’t be making any immediate changes to monetary policy at the conclusion to this week’s two-day meeting. Nonetheless, it would be a mistake for traders to ignore the central bank’s economic projections and comments.

US and China are apparently close to a trade deal (how many times are we going to hear this?) that could lift most or all US tariffs – as long as Beijing follows through on its ledges. This is yet again providing the main boost for equities but sooner or later, investors will start focusing on something else.