Latest Research

Amidst the ongoing Brexit hullaballoo (latest headlines suggest Theresa May will survive her no confidence vote as we go to press), tomorrow’s ECB meeting has no doubt snuck up on many FX traders.

Over the last couple of days, we’ve covered the drama surrounding the vote on Theresa May’s Brexit bill, from last week’s resignation threats, to rumors of its cancellation, to confirmation of its cancellation. With May presently in Brussels negotiating with EU policymakers, the postponed “meaningful vote” is now slated to be held in the New Year, s...

As we hinted both last week and earlier today, the Parliamentary vote on Theresa May’s Brexit plan has been on its last legs for a while now. In a speech at the House of Commons, the Prime Minister delivered the coup de grâce this afternoon, cancelling tomorrow’s vote and vowing to return to Brussels to renegotiate the controversial Irish border bac...

According to a report from The Guardian, PM Theresa May could see more government resignations ahead of Tuesday’s Parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal if the Irish backstop is not amended.

For seemingly the first time in months, today’s US jobs report had at least a little potential to influence the imminent Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

As my colleague Fawad Razaqzada noted earlier today, “it is not a question of whether [OPEC] will decide to cut supplies or not, but by how much.”

Despite US stock and bond markets closed in honor of President George H. W. Bush’s passing, we’ve seen a surprising amount of volatility in the FX market.

As we anticipated yesterday (see here and here), the risk-on rally in the wake of this weekend’s “trade war truce” between the US and China has sputtered out relatively quickly. With US officials sending mixed messages about the content of the agreement and Chinese leaders maintaining radio silence, investors are increasingly concerned that a broad,...

As you’ve no doubt heard by now, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi were able to reach a ceasefire agreement at the G20 summit in Argentina over the weekend.

Of all the major currencies, the Australian dollar is perhaps the most sensitive to trends in global trade. The country’s commodity-centric economy and close ties with China mean that any slowdown in international business may be seen Down Under first.

“I think it’s essential to remember that just about everything is cyclical. There’s little I’m certain of, but these things are true: Cycles always prevail eventually. Nothing goes in one direction forever. Trees don’t grow to the sky. Few things go to zero. And there’s little that’s as dangerous for investor health as insistence on extrapolating to...

"We may go past neutral, but we're a long way from neutral at this point, probably." - Fed Chair Powell, 3 October “[Interest rates] remain just below the broad range of estimates of… neutral” -Fed Chair Powell, 28 November Oh, what a difference a month makes!