AUD/NZD approaching key support
Fawad Razaqzada March 27, 2017 1:41 PM
Given the dollar's uncertainty, it may be best to take USD out of the equation and instead concentrate on a currency cross – for example the AUD/NZD, which is fast approaching a key technical area
After big overnight falls, the US dollar managed to bounce back a little shortly after the New York open, the Dow was well over 100 points off its earlier lows and the VIX had declined more than 10% from its earlier highs. It wasn’t exactly risk-on, but the situation certainly looked a lot calmer than at the European open. The S&P 500 had completely eradicated the gap it had left behind after the closing bell on Friday at 2344. Thus, with the gap closed, the sellers may step back in after this bounce. With the dollar also testing significant long-term support levels, it was unclear whether the next move would be a much-needed bounce for the buck and stocks or if they would come under pressure again. Given that nothing has fundamentally changed since last week, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of further losses for the stock markets.
Given this uncertainty, it may be best to take the US dollar out of the equation and instead concentrate on a currency cross – for example the AUD/NZD, which is fast approaching a key technical area. As can be seen, the area between 1.0740 and 1.0770 had been significant resistance since May 2016, until it was finally cleared earlier this month. Once resistance, it could turn into new support upon re-test. We are of the view that if the cross were to get there, a bounce to at least the first trouble area around 1.0860 could be the outcome, possibly higher. However, if support gives way then this month’s breakout could be considered a false move, in which case we could see a deeper retracement, perhaps towards the 200-day moving average at 1.0545 or horizontal support at 1.0520, before price decides on its next move.
Source: eSignal and FOREX.com. Please note, this product is not available to US clients
Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.