Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Fri 08 Jun)
Kelvin Wong June 8, 2018 1:12 AM
FX – Mix bag with USD strength seen against AUD & GBP
- EUR/USD – Trend bias: Residual push up remains in progress. The pair had managed to inch higher as expected in yesterday, 07 Jun European session as it headed towards the resistance/target zone of 1.1880/1940 (refer to yesterday report). It printed a high of 1.1840 before it pull-backed in the U.S. session to print a low of 1.1803. No major changes on its key short-term technical elements and yesterday’s pull-back has triggered an oversold condition in the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator. Maintain bullish bias with key short-term support remains at 1.1737 (the pull-back support of the minor “Ascending Triangle range resistance from 31 May 2018 high + minor ascending trendline from 29 May 2018 low) for a potential residual push up to target the resistance at 1.1880/1940 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 16 Feb 2018 high to 29 May 2018 low + former minor swing low area of 09/10 Jan 2018 that was rejected on 14 May 2018 + also now the potential breakout target of the aforementioned minor “Ascending Triangle”). However, failure to hold at 1.1737 is likely to see the start of a deeper retracement/pull-back towards the next support at 1.1650/1616 (the minor swing low areas of 01/05 Jun 2018 + 50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 30 May to today, Asian session current intraday high of 1.18000).
- GBP/USD – Trend bias: Sideways with risk of a deeper pull-back/retracement. Push up as expected and almost hit the resistance/target of 1.3480 (refer to yesterday report) as it printed a high of 1.3472 in yesterday’s 07 Jun European session. Elements are now mixed with a daily “Long-legged Doji” seen at the end of yesterday U.S. session which indicates a potential reversal or pause on its prior bullish sentiment. Prefer to turn neutral now between 1.3480 (former minor range congestion support from 04/18 May 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 17 Apr 2018 high to 29 May low of 1.3205) & 1.3370 (low of the aforementioned “Long-legged Doji” candlestick + + lower boundary of a minor ascending range configuration in place since 29 May 2018 low). A break below 1.3370 is likely to trigger the start of a deeper retracement towards the next intermediate supports at 1.3300 (minor swing low areas of 04/05 Jun 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 29 May 2018 low to yesterday, 06 Jun high of 1.3472) follow by 1.3260 (minor swing low area of 01 Jun 2018). On the flip side, a clearance above 1.3480 opens up scope for a further squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.3590/3650 (minor range resistance of 08/14 May 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 17 Apr 2018 high to 29 May low of 1.3205).
- AUD/USD – Trend bias: Deeper pull-back/retracement remains in progress. The pair had shaped the pull-backed as expected right below the 0.7690 key resistance (the pull-back resistance of the former major bearish “Ascending Wedge” support from Jan 2016 and the former medium-term swing low area of 20 Mar 2018, refer to yesterday report). Yesterday’s slide had led the pair to print a low of 0.7610 which is just above the first intermediate support/target of 0.7585 (former minor swing high areas of 25/31 May 2018). No change, maintain bearish bias with tightened key short-term resistance now at 0.7650 (minor descending trendline from 07 Jun 2018 high + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going slide from 07 Jun 2018 high to yesterday, 07 Jun low of 0.7610) for a further potential push down to retest 0.7585 and a break below 0.7585 (an hourly close below it) opens up scope for a further potential decline to target the next intermediate support at 0.7515 (the minor swing low of 01 Jun 2018 & the lower boundary of the minor ascending channel from 09 May 2018 low). On the other hand, a break above 0.7650 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards 0.7690.
- NZD/USD - Trend bias: Sideways. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 0.7060 (former minor swing high area of 04 May 2018 + Fibonacci projection/retracement cluster) and 0.7000 (05 Jun 2018 minor swing low). A clearance (an hourly close) above 0.7060 triggers a potential squeeze up to retest a significant medium-term resistance at 0.7190 (the former range support from 08 Feb/20 Mar 2018 before the recent bearish breakdown that led to a decline of 330 pips + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 13 Apr 2018 high to 16 May 2018 low). On the flipside, failure to hold at 0.7000 opens up scope for a decline towards the next intermediate support of 0.6960 (the former minor swing low area of 01 Jun 2018) and below exposes the next support of 0.6900 (psychological + minor ascending trendline from 15 May 2018/the start of the current short-term rebound).
- USD/JPY - Trend bias: Risk of deeper pull-back/retracement. The pair broke below the 109.75 tightened key short-term support that invalidated the residual push up scenario towards 110.60 (refer to yesterday report). Flip to a bearish bias with key short-term resistance at 110.10 (close to yesterday, 07 Jun European session high) for a further potential slide to target the next support at 109.05/108.90 (former minor swing high areas of 29/30 May 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 30 May 2018 low to 06 Jun 2018 high of 110.26). On the other hand, a clearance above 110.10 revives the bulls for a push up to target the 110.60 resistance (Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster + former minor swing low areas of 18/19 May 2018).
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