Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Fri 13 Jul)
Kelvin Wong July 13, 2018 12:12 AM
FX – USD strength resurgence remains intact with bullish breakout seen in USD/JPY
- EUR/USD – Trend bias: Push down within range scenario remains intact. The push up from yesterday, 12 Jul 2018 European session low of 1.1650 had managed to stall right below the predefined 1.1705 key short-term resistance as per highlighted in yesterday report (printed a high of 1.1695 in yesterday, U.S. session. No major changes on its short-term technical elements as it continues to evolve within a minor “Descending Triangle” range configuration in place since 07 Jun 2018 high of 1.1840. No change, maintain bearish bias below the 1.1705 key short-term resistance (the former minor swing low areas of 10/11 Jul 2018) for a further potential slide towards 1.1590 before the 1.1530 minor “Descending Triangle” range support. However, a clearance above 1.1705 sees a squeeze up to retest the range resistance at 1.1780/1790.
- GBP/USD - Trend bias: Pull-back scenario to retrace the first wave of mean reversion rebound in progress. The pair continued to inch lower as expected and printed a new minor lower low of 1.3170 in today, 13 Apr Asian session since the on-going slide started on 09 Jul 2018 high of 1.3363. No clear signs of short-term bearish exhaustion, maintain bearish bias in any bounce below 1.3240 key short-term resistance (former minor swing low of 11 Jul 2018 + close to minor descending trendline from 09 Jul 2018) for a further potential push down to target the next intermediate supports at 1.3140 and 1.3110. (minor swing low of 02 Jul 2018 + Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster). However, a clearance above 1.3240 sees a squeeze back up to retest 1.3300 (09 Jul 2018 swing high area + medium-term descending trendline from 10 May 2018 high).
- AUD/USD - Trend bias: Push down within range. The push up from 0.7360 low of 12 Jul 2018 had tested the upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone at 0.7415 (refer to yesterday report) without a clear hourly close above it (printed an intraday high of 0.7419 in yesterday, 12 Jul U.S. session low). In today, 13 Jul Asian session, the pair has attempted to test the 0.7415 (printed a current intraday high of 0.7422 before an hourly close below 0.7415) and interestingly, the shorter-term hourly Stochastic oscillator has flashed a bearish divergence signal at its overbought region. These observations suggest the push up from 12 Jul 2018 low of 0.7360 has started to lose upside momentum. Flip to a bearish below key short-term resistance at 0.7440 (former 10 Jul 2018 minor swing low area + minor descending trendline from 09 Jul 2018 high + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the slide from 09 Jul 2018 high to 12 Jul 2018 low of 0.7360) for a potential push down to retest 0.7360 before targeting the 0.7320/0.7300 swing low of 02 Jul 2018. On the other hand, a clearance above 0.7440 reinstates the second wave of mean reversion rebound scenario to retest 0.7484 recent swing high of 09/10 Jul 2018 before targeting the 0.7540 resistance (upper boundary of the medium-term descending channel from 26 Jan 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 14 Mar 2018 high to 29 Jun 2018 low).
- NZD/USD - Trend bias: Down move remains intact. No change, maintain bearish bias in any bounce below the 0.6805 key short-term resistance (former minor swing low of 10 Jul 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going slide from 11 Ju 2018 minor swing high to today, 12 Jul Asian session current intraday low of 0.6748) for a further potential downleg to retest 0.6690 swing low of 03 Jul 2018 before targeting the next support at 0.6600/6575 (the lower boundary of the medium-term descending channel in place since 13 Apr 2018 + swing low areas of 16 Feb/15 Mar 2016). On the other hand, a break above 0.6805 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest 0.6865 (the pull-back resistance of the former neckline support of the major “Double Top” that broke down on 27 Jun 2018 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 16 Feb 2018 high to 03 Jul 2018 low).
- USD/JPY - Trend bias: Further up move validated. The pair had staged a bullish breakout with a daily close above the 112.30 major resistance (Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster + major descending resistance in place since Jun 2015 high). Flip back to a bullish bias from yesterday’s neutrality stance in any dips above the 112.00 key short-term support (the pull-back support of the former major descending resistance from Jun 2015 high + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 11 Jul 2018 low to today, 13 Jul Asian session current intraday high of 112.77 + steeper minor ascending trendline from 11 Jul 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 113.30/40 (Fibonacci projection cluster + swing high areas of 21 Dec 2017/05 Jan 2018) before 114.10 (medium-term swing high area of 01 Nov 2017 + upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel in place since from 26 Mar 2018 low). However, failure to hold at 112.00 implies a failure bullish breakout for a slide back to retest 111.40/111.00 in the first step(the former swing high of 21 May 2018 + medium-term ascending channel support from 26 Mar 2018 low).
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